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Improve Hurricane Structure Monitoring and Intensity Forecast Using NPP ATMS and GCOM-W AMSR2

Improve Hurricane Structure Monitoring and Intensity Forecast Using NPP ATMS and GCOM-W AMSR2 . Fuzhong Weng (PI) NOAA/NESDIS/Center for Satellite Applications and Research Xiaolei Zou Florida State University Vijay Tallapragada and Andrew Collard NOAA/NWS/Environmental Modeling Center

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Improve Hurricane Structure Monitoring and Intensity Forecast Using NPP ATMS and GCOM-W AMSR2

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  1. Improve Hurricane Structure Monitoring and Intensity Forecast Using NPP ATMS and GCOM-W AMSR2 FuzhongWeng (PI) NOAA/NESDIS/Center for Satellite Applications and Research XiaoleiZou Florida State University Vijay Tallapragada and Andrew Collard NOAA/NWS/Environmental Modeling Center And STAR/EMC Satellite Data Assimilation Team Members (Ben Zhang, Lin Lin, Tong Zhu, Greg Grawsowski, and In-HyukKwon)

  2. Proposed Tasks • Advanced Microwave Sounder Technology (ATMS) Backus-Gilbert Re-sampling • ATMS Algorithm for Hurricane Warm Core Monitoring • AMSR2 Algorithm for Sea Surface Temperature and Wind Speed in Storm Conditions • Direct Assimilation of Microwave Cloudy Radiances in Hurricane Model

  3. Project Milestones and Deliverables (2012-2013) • Generate the ATMS re-sampling weights using B-G  methods and understand the noise reduction in association with each averaging algorithm • Preprocess  the ATMS data granules into new granule files with new B-G weights and generate the BUFR ATMS files for hurricane applications • Retrieve atmospheric temperature profiles from ATMS under hurricane conditions • Revise AMSR-E SST and SSW algorithms for AMSR2 applications and demonstrate the products over hurricane conditions (Delay to the second year) • By the end of the first year, we deliver the ATMS preprocessor  for generating a high resolution of ATMS SDR data with a nadir resolution of 30 km and AMSR2 SST and SSW algorithm software  

  4. Project Milestones and Deliverables(2014-2015) • Produce operational ATMS resampled data  and distribute to user community for demonstrating the values of ATMS oversampling data • Derive AMSR2 surface temperature and wind speed products using a physical retrieval algorithm and validate the products with insitu data • Collocate  ATMS and AMSR2 data and generate the retrievals of atmospheric and surface parameters using a combined set of AMSR2 and ATMS channels (delayed to the third year) • Produce a composite analysis of hurricane vortex structure for hurricane model initialization. •  Collocation of retrieved variables should be done within the DA framework • By the end of the second year, we deliver AMSR2 SST and SSW algorithm and products in hurricane conditions and also a composite vortex dataset

  5. Project Milestones and Deliverables(2015-2017) • Characterize ATMS temperature sounding channel bias in presence of clouds and define the best predictors for bias correction with respect to GFS and HWRF • Characterize the forward model errors for simulating ATMS radiances in cloudy conditions using the collocated Cloudsat and precipitation radar data with ATMS • Conduct the experiments for assessing the impacts of cloud radiance assimilation in GFS and HWRF • By the end of third year, we will deliver a bias correction algorithm and forward radiative transfer model errors, with a focus on assimilating cloudy radiances in hurricane conditions

  6. ATMS Deconvolution from Low to High Resolution Resampled 23 Tb( 2.2 degree) Raw 23 Tb (5.2 degree)

  7. ATMS Convolution from High to Low Resolution Raw 89 GHz Tb (2.2 degree) Resampled 89 Tb( 5.2 degree)

  8. NPP ATMS and VIIRS Imager and Products Warm Core Cross section along 26.0 N VIIRS 0.64 µm visible and 11.45 µm IR images at 18:33 UTC, 28 Aug 2012 METAR, MSL Pressure, and Buoys information included

  9. Hurricane Sandy Warm Core Anomaly Ascending 1730 UTC, 29 October 2012 At 1800 UTC Oct 29 Max Wind: 90 MPH, Min Pressure: 940 hPa Cross section along Latitude 38.1 N Cross section along Longitude 72.9 W

  10. Sandy Max Wind, Warm Core and MSLP

  11. Sandy Max Wind, Warm Core and MSLP

  12. Passive Microwave Imager: an example of GCOM-W1 AMSR-2 Instrument Deployable main reflector system with 2.0m diameter. Frequency channel set is identical to that of AMSR-E except 7.3GHz channel for RFI mitigation. 2-point external calibration with the improved HTS (hot-load). Deployed Stowed GCOM-W AMSR-2 provides higher space resolutions compared its precursor on EOS-Aqua (AMSR-E) and better design for mitigating radio frequency interference in land remote sensing application

  13. Information Content from GCOM-W1 AMSR2 Duration 9 - 21 February 2012 MSPD=115 mph  MSLP=932 (hPa) JAXA launched GCOM-W1 on Oct 18, 2011 with AMSR2 on board and NESDIS is developing NOAA unique AMSR2 products for user community.

  14. AMSR-E Ocean Products: Theoretical Base

  15. Information Content from GCOM-W1 AMSR2 Hurricane Sandy-10-28-2012 06 UTC SSW SST Duration 9 - 21 February 2012 MSPD=115 mph  MSLP=932 (hPa) JAXA launched GCOM-W1 on Oct 18, 2011 with AMSR2 on board and NESDIS is developing NOAA unique AMSR2 products for user community.

  16. NCEP GSI (3DVar data assimilation system) is being used by community for both global and regional model analysis but its interface is not designed well for different model configurations In 2011 and 2012 version of Hurricane Weather Research Forecast (HWRF) model, most of satellite data are not used in HWRF analysis process due to its model top setup Analyses show GSI quality controls for satellite water vapor sounding data are also problematic (lots of bad data sneak into the analysis process). Bias correction schemes for satellite data developed for the global model applications have not been fully vetted for regional model applications Statement of Problems in GSI

  17. ATMS Weighting Functions STAR HWRF Top Pressure (hPa) NCEP HWRF Top Our approach: Raise the model top to allow for more satellite data assimilated into hurricane forecast model ATMS Weighting Function

  18. O-B (MHS Channel 3 at 1800 UTC 05/22/08) MHS Ch 3 Passing GSI QC MHS Ch3 Affected by Clouds over Oceans MHS Ch3 Removed by New Cloud Algorithms WRF Cloud Liquid Water

  19. Issues on GSI QC for SSMIS Imaging Channel (10/27/2012) Yellow: SSMIS clear data (CLW<0.05mm) not passing QC Cyan: SSMIS cloudy pixels (CLW >0.05mm) passing QC

  20. HWRF Model and Data Assimilation System • HWRF Model: • 2012 NCEP-Trunk version 934 • Three telescoping domains: • Outer domain: 27km: 75x75o; • Inner domain: 9km ~11x10o • Inner-most domain: 3km inner-most nest ~6x6o • Revised Model Level and Top: • Vertical levels: 61 • Model top: 0.5 hPa • Data Assimilation System: • HWRF 6 hour forecasts • GSI (3DVAR) • The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model dynamical core is designed based on the WRF model using NCEP Non-Hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) core with a movable high-resolution nested grid (telescopic) • Regional-Scale, Moving Nest, Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Modeling System. Horizontal resolution: 27 km outer grid, 9 km inner grid, 42 vertical levels • Non-Hydrostaticsystem of equations formulated on a rotated latitude-longitude, Arakawa E-grid and a vertical, pressure hybrid (sigma_p-P) coordinate. • Advanced HWRF 3D Variational analysis that includes vortex relocation, correction to winds, MSLP, temperature and moisture in the hurricane region and adjustment to actual storm intensity. • Uses SAS convection scheme, GFS/GFDL surface, boundary layer physics, GFDL/GFS radiation and Ferrier Microphysical Scheme. • Ocean coupled modeling system (POM/HYCOM).

  21. Control Experiment – L61 • Conventional Data: • Radiosondes, aircraft reports (AIREP/PIREP, RECCO, MDCRS-ACARS, TAMDAR, AMDAR), Surface ship and buoy observations , Surface observations over land, Pibalwinds,Wind profilers, VAD wind, Dropsondes • Satellite Instrument Data: • AMSU-A (channel 5-14) from NOAA-18, NOAA-19 and METOP-A • HIRS from NOAA-19 and METOP-A • AIRS from EOS Aqua • ASCAT from METOP-A • GPSRO from GRAS/COSMIC

  22. Sensitivity Experiments • Conv Only: NoSatellite Radiance Data • ATMS: L61 + ATMS • CrIS: L61 + CrIS • IASI: L61 + IASI HWRF FST Turn on GSI 5-day Forecast 0000 UTC 1800 UTC 0000 UTC day5 • Period: 2012102218 ~ 2012102918, 29 cycles in total

  23. Hurricane Sandy Tracks from NCEP GFS and HWRF Operational Forecasts GFS HWRF

  24. Impacts of Direct Assimilation of Operational Satellite Radiances in HWRF on Hurricane Sandy’s Track CONV Only L61

  25. Impacts of Direct Assimilation of Suomi NPP ATMS Radiances on Hurricane Sandy’s Track L61:Control Run L61+ATMS Predicted vs. observed track for Hurricane Sandy during October 22 to 29. NCEP 2012 HWRF is revised with a high model and 6 forecast as background for direct satellite radiance assimilation in GSI. Control Run: All conventional data and NOAA/METOP/EOS/COSMIC. It is clearly demonstrated that assimilation of Suomi NPP ATMS radiance data reduce the forecast errors of Hurricane Sandy’s track . Slide courtesy: FuzhongWeng, NOAA/STAR

  26. Comparison of Temperature Increments from ATMS and AMSU-A Shaded: ATMS Red contour: AMSU-A Black contour: Conventional ATMS and AMSU-A (NOAA-19) produce largest temperature innovation in storm regions in similar magnitudes and complementary in spatial coverage

  27. Impacts of Direct Assimilation of Hyperspectral Infrared Sounders on Hurricane Sandy’s Track L61 L61+IASI L61+CrIS

  28. Multiple Forecasts of Max. Wind Speed GFS HWRF L61 CONV only

  29. Multiple Forecasts of Max. Wind Speed ATMS L61 IASI CrIS

  30. Multiple Forecasts of Min. Surf. Pres. GFS HWRF L61 CONV only

  31. Multiple Forecasts of Min. Surf. Pres. ATMS L61 CrIS IASI

  32. L61 L61 IASI IASI ATMS ATMS CrIS CrIS Track Forecast Observation Observation 24-hr forecast 48-hr forecast

  33. L61 L61 IASI IASI ATMS ATMS CrIS CrIS Track Forecast Observation Observation 72-hr forecast 96-hr forecast

  34. L61 L61 L61 L61 IASI IASI IASI IASI ATMS ATMS ATMS ATMS CrIS CrIS CrIS CrIS Max. Wind Speed Forecast Observation Observation Observation Observation 24-hr forecast 48-hr forecast 72-hr forecast 96-hr forecast

  35. L61 L61 L61 L61 IASI IASI IASI IASI ATMS ATMS ATMS ATMS CrIS CrIS CrIS CrIS Min. Surf. Pres. Forecast Observation Observation Observation Observation 24-hr forecast 48-hr forecast 72-hr forecast 96-hr forecast

  36. Our JPSS proving ground project is progressing very well and all the tasks in 2012-2013 are on track. SuomiNPP ATMS/CRIS added more values for improving hurricane monitoring and forecasts. ATMS is very unique for resolving hurricane warm core features through spatial oversampling and additional channels. AMSR2 provides SST and SSW information within the hurricane precipitation areas and the algorithms have been developed and tested for retrievals 2012 HWRF/GSI is re-configured with more vertical layers and higher model top for improving direct satellite radiance assimilation. Our control and sensitivity experiments show NPP ATMS improves Sandy’s track and intensity forecasts Summary and Conclusions

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