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SPECS Seasonal-to-decadal climate Prediction for the improvement of European Climate Services

SPECS Seasonal-to-decadal climate Prediction for the improvement of European Climate Services F.J. Doblas-Reyes ICREA and IC3, Barcelona, Spain. Climate time scales.

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SPECS Seasonal-to-decadal climate Prediction for the improvement of European Climate Services

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  1. SPECS Seasonal-to-decadal climate Prediction for the improvement of European Climate Services F.J. Doblas-Reyes ICREA and IC3, Barcelona, Spain

  2. Climate time scales • Progression from initial-value problems with weather forecasting at one end and multi-decadal to century projections as a forced boundary condition problem at the other, with climate prediction (sub-seasonal, seasonal and decadal) in the middle. Prediction involves initialization and systematic comparison with a simultaneous reference. Meehl et al. (2009) GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013

  3. Seasonal predictions • Correlation of System 3 seasonal forecasts of temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) wrt GHCN and GPCC over 1981-2005. Only values significant with 80% conf. plotted. JJA T2m DJF T2m JJA Prec DJF Prec GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013

  4. Decadal predictions • (Top) Near-surface temperature multi-model ensemble-mean correlation from CMIP5 decadal initialised predictions (1960-2005), five-year start date frequency; (bottom) correlation difference with the uninitialised predictions of 2-5 year (left) and 6-9 year (right) wrt ERSST and GHCN. Init ensemble-mean correlation Init minus NoInit ensemble-mean correlation difference Doblas-Reyes et al. (2013) GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013

  5. (FEB) (MAY) (NOV) Systematic error: WAM • Averaged precipitation over 10ºW-10ºE for 1982-2008 for GPCP (climatology) and ECMWF System 4 (systematic error) with start dates November (6-month lead time), February (3) and May (0). GPCP climatology ECMWF S4 - GPCP (NOV) ECMWF S4 - GPCP (FEB) ECMWF S4 - GPCP (MAY) GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013

  6. Calibration/combination • Seasonal forecasts of November Niño3.4 ERSST (four-month lead) with a persistence-based statistical model, the ECMWF System 3 and CFSV2 forecast systems and the combination of the two. Rodrigues et al. (2013) GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013

  7. SPECS motivation • What: to produce quasi-operational and actionable local climate information • Why: need information with improved forecast quality, a focus on extreme climate events and enhanced communication and services for RCOFs, NHMSs and a wide range of public and private stakeholders • How: with a new generation of reliable European climate forecast systems, including initialised ESMs, efficient regionalisation tools and combination methods, and an enhanced dissemination and communication protocol • Where: over land, focus on Europe, Africa, South America • When: seasonal-to-decadal time scales over the longest possible observational period • http://www.specs-fp7.eu GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013

  8. SPECS objective • SPECS will deliver a new generation of European climate forecast systems, including initialised Earth System Models (ESMs) and efficient regionalisation tools to produce quasi-operational and actionable local climate information over land at seasonal-to-decadal time scales with improved forecast quality and a focus on extreme climate events, and provide an enhanced communication protocol and services to satisfy the climate information needs of a wide range of public and private stakeholders. • Substantial links to GEOSS for Climate GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013

  9. + Brazil Consortium 20 partners, coordination IC3 Long list of affiliated partners and stakeholders, among which GEO GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013

  10. SPECS is part of ECOMS • European Climate Observations, Modelling and Services (ECOMS) initiative with these objectives: • ensure close coordination between projects and activities in Europe in the area of seasonal to decadal climate predictions towards climate services • provide thought leadership to the European Commission on future priorities in the area of seasonal to decadal climate predictions towards climate services. • Three EU projects are the core of ECOMS: EUPORIAS, NACLIM and SPECS, with a total funding of 26 Meuros. • All EU projects related to climate research and climate services are part of ECOMS. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013

  11. Overall strategy GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013

  12. SPECS impact • SPECS and ECOMS bring together several communities: climate modelling, weather and climate forecasting, impact modelling, downscaling. • The main project deliverables are a set of public tools and data from the most ambitious coordinate seasonal-to-decadal global prediction experiments to this date. • Coordinated experiments • Core: impact of soil moisture and sea-ice initialization, increased resolution, improved stratosphere and enhanced sample size • Tier 1: impact of snow initialization, interactive vegetation/phenology, sensitivity to aerosol and solar irradiance. • Central repository using revised CMIP5/CORDEX standards. • Large number of affiliated partners and stakeholders, including major international programmes. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013

  13. Future GLACE-3 • SPECS could be the European contribution to the future GLACE-3. • GLACE-3 will aim at assessing the impact of initializing soil moisture and snow. • Four-month long forecasts, 10-member ensembles, 1986-2012, start in November, February, May, June, July, August, ERA-Interim based forcings (WFDEI, WATCH), prescribed and fixed vegetation maps and biophysical properties. • Four experiments: • CLIM: initialize with soil moisture and snow climatology. • INI1: initialize with reanalysis of soil moisture and snow. • PERFECTBOUNDARY: prescribe daily soil moisture and snow reanalysis. • INI2: initialize with multi-model reanalysis of soil moisture and snow. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013

  14. CMIP5 decadal predictions • Decadal predictions (2-5 forecast years) from the CMIP5 multi-model (6 systems, initialized solid, historical and RCP4.5 dashed) over 1960-2005 for global-mean temperature, the Atlantic multi-decadal variability and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. GISS and ERSST data used as reference. • Correlation of the ensemble-mean prediction as function of forecast time. Grey area for the 95% confidence level. • Root mean square error, where dots represent the forecast times for which Init and NoInit are significantly different at 95% confidence level. Forecast time (4-year averages) Doblas-Reyes et al. (2013) GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013

  15. Predictions of the recent hiatus (Top) First three forecast years of the decadal predictions (five-member ensembles performed with the EC-Earth2.3 forecast system over 1960-2005 for global-mean sea surface temperature. The ensemble mean is plotted with a thicker dot. (Bottom) Three historical simulations (extended with the RCP4.5 scenario) performed with EC-Earth2.3. The ensemble mean is plotted with a thicker line. ERSST data used as reference in black. Positive impact of the initialization. Guemas et al. (2013) GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013

  16. Climate information 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.60.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.4-0.6 -0.8-1.0 -1.2 -1.4 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.00.8 0.6 0.4 0.2-0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 -1.4 -1.6 -1.8-2.0 Observed 10m wind speed (m/s) DJF 2010 Forecast 10m wind speed (m/s) DJF 2010 Probability most likely tercile (%) DJF 2010 Seasonal predictions of 10-metre wind speed from ECMWF System 4 from the November 2010 start date, with the climatology computed from 1981-2010. Reference from ERA Interim. Below Normal Normal Above Normal Very likely (>90%) Likely (>66%) About as likely as not (33-66%) Likely Very likely GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013

  17. SPECS and GFCS GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013

  18. SPECS links to GEO • Direct link to task “CL-01 Climate Information for Adaptation” through the use of the climate-observing component of GEOSS and the acceleration of the integration of climate products and services into adaptation processes. • “C3 Weather, Climate and Earth-System Prediction Systems” through the SPECS contributions to WWRP’s Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) and Polar Prediction Project (PPP), and in particular via the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), and the strong role played in the WCRP Working Group of Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) and the Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (PCPI). SPECS will play a central role in the design of CMIP6. • “C4 Easy Access to, and Use of, Climate Information” through the contribution to the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) and the public dissemination of the SPECS products. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013

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