Key technology 3: Confidence Overview of progress

1. Key technology 3: ConfidenceOverview of progress

2. 1st CSC Meeting: 30 November 2005What do we mean by “confidence”? • Uncertainty/stochastics • Robustness • Evaluation • How to eliminate uncertainty • How to eliminate gateway/options • Correlation/validation with test results • Standardisation • QA procedure • Certification of engineers/training

3. 1st Technology Workshop: 17-18 January 2006Introduction and preliminary discussions • Fundamental issues • Staff training • Tools ie hardware, software, upgrades • Model structure • Discretization • Available data to build models – rubbish in, rubbish out • Data management of model versions • Model assumptions • Model validation • Dependent on eventual model use • Stochastic modelling and data scatter • What should the model be validated against • Subjective objective comparisons? • Sub-system validation • Integration with test departments • General issues • Confidence linked to integration and materials • What will confidence give us? • Need to balance confidence against cost • Determine rules and guidelines for Confidence • Use TRL, SoP and PLI scales for ranking Confidence issues

4. 1st Technology Workshop: 17-18 January 2006 Post workshop – Confidence questionnaire

5. 1st Technology Workshop: 17-18 January 2006 Post workshop – Confidence questionnaire • Facilities • Hardware, processor and software dependencies, • Math based model • Variety and accuracy of available material models and model assumptions • Digital model • Discretisation/convergence of the model, explicit /implicit techniques, validation parameters • Physical model, process and implementation • Risk management, linking with integration and materials, integration with test department, subjective/objective validation, validation against test corridors, standardisation and repeatability of models • Data validity • Available geometrical and material data, data management, stochastic modelling, model sensitivity and robustness • Staff training and organisation • Staff training, existing staff skills, detecting model errors, quality control

6. 1st Technology Workshop: 17-18 January 2006 Post workshop – Confidence questionnaire Questionnaire ranked issues: Confidence (PLI>7) • Methods of validating models – Subjective/rational (Physical model) • Integration of modelling with the test departments (Physical model) • Quality control Capitalisation (Staff training) • Standardisation of models to ensure repeatability (Physical model) • Detection of modelling errors (Staff training) • Reliability of test data/test corridors (Physical model) • Reliability/confidence in experiments (Data validity) • Availability of geometrical and material data (Data validity) • Staff training (Staff training) • Existing staff skills (Staff training) • Choice of elements and element formulation (Digital model) • Discretisation of the model/mesh density and quality (Digital model)

7. Physical Model Digital Model Math Model 2nd Technology Workshop: 4-5 May 2006Determine principal Confidence themes to tackle Engineering and design orientation H Ress. & organisation Data Simulation results Facilities

8. 2nd Technology Workshop: 4-5 May 2006 Determine principal Confidence themes to tackle • Physical model • Subjective and rational validation, integration of modelling with test department, Standardisation of models to ensure repeatability, reliability of test data/test corridors • Staff training • Quality control and capitalisation, detection of modelling errors, staff training, existing staff skills • Data validity • Reliability/confidence in experiments, availability of geometrical and material data • Digital model • Choice of elements and element formulation, discretisation of the model/mesh density and quality

9. 3rd Technology Workshop: 23-24 November 2006Determine principal Confidence themes to tacklePhysical model – Best Practices • Build complexity into models – eg sub-structuring, element complexity • Parametric and sensitivity analyses to test reliability of models • Stochastic modelling and comparison against data corridors • Set boundaries/confidence limits for the application of models • Balance correct answer against a good answer • Access the NAFEMS website and find out what’s available Physical model – Breakthrough Technologies • Levels and accuracy of validation will change with time – improve/reduce • Software developments that: • Reduce time to validate • Assist improve stochastic methods and data mining • Education of managers and decision makers on what validation means

10. 3rd Technology Workshop: 23-24 November 2006 Determine principal Confidence themes to tackleStaff training – Best Practices • Analysts need to know the physics of the problem and code mathematics • Education/Training should be a healthy mixture of, ‘on-the-job’ training, learning from peers, external meetings and courses • NAFEMS Registered Analyst Scheme (RA Scheme) • Chartered Engineer in the UK Staff training – Breakthrough Technologies • Independent NAFEMS training (non-software specific): • NAFEMS or software specific on-line questionnaires to provide a means of assessing an analysts capabilities and knowledge • On-line/software embedded training while working • What are Universities and University courses doing to train the next generation of analysts? • Education of managers and decision makers on the importance of training

11. 3rd Technology Workshop: 23-24 November 2006 Determine principal Confidence themes to tackleData validity – Best Practices • Strongly linked to material technology area – poor data sources, connections/welds • Strongly linked to CAE analysis area • Strongly linked to model complexity • Sensitivity and parametric to test uncertainties in material data, data input and loading conditions • Data tracking and management • Inconsistencies between CAD data/modelled structures and the prototype • NAFEMS benchmarks on contact model validity Data validity – Breakthrough Technologies • Single independent database of published material data • Black box encrypted transfer of sub-system models/algorithms • Assumptions need to be recorded and embedded in code • Advances in measuring technologies to aid reverse engineering • Condition dependent material models

12. 3rd Technology Workshop: 23-24 November 2006 Determine principal Confidence themes to tackleDigital model – Best Practices • Large models being developed up to tens of millions of elements • Intelligent mesh adaptation tools • Sourcing out model runs to organisations with larger computer resources Digital model – Breakthrough Technologies • Capability for users to store and personalise mesh quality checks against solving method, customer types and analysis field

13. Future direction of workConfidence Breakthrough Technologies REMARKS … workshops have raised a long list of needs (dreams?)confidence is perceived as fundamental in Automotive Industry … breakthrough technologies/methods are possibly available butnot disclosed because of their confidentiality … two fronts involved: CAE experts + LAB experts sinergy comes from a parallel improvement

14. Future direction of workConfidence Breakthrough Technologies TO DO >> 1) Promote at least one “inter-area” session to avoid redundances 2) Identify where specific competences are stored within Industry & Academia how many users know where to look for information? (even paying) 3) Call experts willing to share their knowledge on “how to” general examples may replace real examples to overcome confidentiality 4) Involve CAE tool developers in the consultation process not for commercial, but for understanding trends: they are a constraint 5) Give to the findings an easy accessible structure