Update: China and the World

1. Update: China and the World Colin Mackerras

2. Aims and Scope • Discuss and analyze China’s foreign policy • Some focus on Sino-American and Sino-Australian relations • Some focus on Tibet and the Olympic Games and their ramifications for China’s overall foreign relations • Evaluate the policy and its future • Time scope is twenty-first century

3. The domestic context • The Hu Jintao leadership (4th generation) • CCP General secretary 11/2002 • State president 3/2003 • Chairman of the Central Military Commission 9/2004 • Wen Jiabao prime minister since 2003 • The nature of the Hu Jintao leadership • Maintain national unity • The three harmonies: society, world peace and reconciliation with Taiwan • Political reform? Democracy? • More emphasis on ordinary people?

4. International context • Changing balance of power and influence in the world • The rising international influence of China • The Olympic Games • Africa • Declining American economy and the sub-prime mortgage crisis • Rising oil prices, affecting economies • Looming food shortages and already rise of food prices, including rice and pork prices in China • Global warming issue to the fore • The American elections • The war in Iraq and American hegemony

5. Some overall themes in foreign relations (1) • The need for energy, note issue in China’s relations with African countries, Central Asia and others • The “war on terror” • Impact on relations with U.S., Russia • Human rights • Differing views: individual versus communitarian • The sovereignty issue • Global warming and the environment • Trade and economic rivalry • The Doha Round: India, China, Brazil, South Africa versus the rich countries; agricultural subsidies • Competition with the U.S. and impact on the world economy, including the perception, even in the U.S., that China may influence matters more than the U.S. itself

6. Some overall themes in foreign relations (2) • Iraq and Iran • Very different views and policies between China and the U.S., energy matters • New states and differing interests • Kosovo as an independent state (2/2008), issues for China • Korea: Working together more than over most issues • Taiwan • China considers Taiwan an “integral part of China” • Alternative views • Current trends, from May KMT again dominates both presidency and congress • Would the U.S. intervene in the case of war • What would Australia do? • Pandemics: Sars (2003) and avian influenza

7. China's rise • The rise of China • Economy exceeded only U.S., Japan and Germany • Influence expanded greatly in various parts of the world, especially Southeast Asia, Central Asia • China’s move into Africa • Africa forum 2006 • Involved in space, even manned space craft • Impact on world economy and perception

8. China’s relations with the U.S. • Positive but highly unstable • The Taiwan issue in Sino-U.S. relations • Problems over trade and currency • Decline of American economy, e.g. mortgage crisis, decline of US$, rise in oil prices • The fear of China as a strategic challenge to American hegemony • Obama, Clinton and McCaine all supported boycott of Olympic Games opening.

9. Australia-China relations under Rudd (1) • Australia-China Relations • The position under Howard • General Australia-China relations under Rudd • Compare relations to Japan • Mostly just as good, but nothing like the whaling issue • But correspondingly with Japan nothing like the Tibet issue • Rudd’s ability to speak Chinese: • What effect does it have? • Rudd’s speech at Peking University, comments on Tibet and human rights • Rudd reprimanded by Hu Jintao in Hainan

10. Australia-China relations under Rudd (2) • Strategic issues • “Strategic dialogue” relaunched 2/08 (initially a Howard initiative during APEC, 9/2007) • The quadrilateral: U.S., Japan, Australia, India: What happens now? Foreign Minister Stephen Smith’s view of early 2/08 to pull Australia out, to India’s dismay (no longer surrounding China) • Economic issues? • Trade: 2006-7 reached A$50billion, slightly in China’s favour • Investment and the case of China’s state-owned Chinalco’s reaction to BHP-Billiton’s attempt to buy a large share of Rio Tinto aiming perhaps to prevent BHP-Billeton from acquiring it: leading to economic nationalism in Australia? • Note Japan FTA talks in advance of China FTA

11. Tibet in China’s foreign relations • Tibet recognized as part of China • However, also major focus of criticism of China’s human rights record, especially in religious freedom • Western, especially U.S., reaction to previous crises in Tibet, especially 1987-9 • What happened since 10/3/08 • Especially major riots 14/3/08 • Reaction in the West, especially U.S. • Role of the Dalai Lama • Role of the Tibetan Youth Congress

12. The Beijing Olympics (1) • The Olympic Games • Issue of world status • Political or not? • Issue of environment in Beijing • Human rights • Moving people to make way for Games-related structures • The question of Africa and especially Sudan and Dafur • Views of Spielberg and Farrow, Prince Charles, Nobel laureates etc. • Alternative views • Who’s to blame for what happens in Sudan? • Sovereignty again • Australia’s position

13. The Beijing Olympics (2) • Attendance of leaders at the Opening Ceremony • In U.S. Nancy Pelosi, Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama called on Bush not to attend • Sarkosy not sure yet, depends on whether the Chinese talk to the Dalai Lama, Merkel won’t go • Gordon Brown wants to save taxpayers’ money • Most leaders no problem • The torch saga, stirred up by “Free Tibet” and human rights activists, including Western supporters • No problems in St Petersburg • Images of protest in London and Paris, with Chinese guards (about a week after the 14 March riots) • But counter-image in China of wheelchair-bound Jin Jing • Heavy security in New Delhi, less in Bangkok, where the King supported the torch’s presence • Canberra • Korea

14. Western Media Reaction • Two features of Western media • Very prone to support the Dalai Lama and “human rights activists” • Tend to be negative about everything • Some try to be fair, but the headlines are usually hostile to China (e.g. first media visit to Lhasa after the 14 March riots) • CNN and the case of Jack Cafferty • German newspapershowed picture of police rescuing a Han man, captioned “police take away insurrectionist” • BBC

15. China’s reactions and the current rise of nationalism • Numerous accusations against Western media of distortions and even deliberate doctoring of pictures and other material, e.g. CNN • Ordinary Chinese bitter against West, shown in blogs and by Chinese around the world. Definitely sincere, not just organized by the government • Demonstrations against media, e.g. against B.B.C. in London and Manchester, U.S., Canada, etc. • Boycotts suggested, e.g. against French retailer chain Carrefour • Xinhua claimed (mid-April) survey in 10 cities showed 66% or respondents supported boycott • Comment on Sino-French relations, and French apology to China • Reasons: Belief that West is unfair on China, trying to halt its rise by trying to make the Olympics fail, West hypocritical over human rights • No longer possible to humiliate China

16. Conclusion • Evaluation of China’s foreign policy in general • The rise of nationalism • Is it surprising? • Will it help China or jeopardize its rise to superpower status (the latter suggested by Rowan Callick in The Australian, 26/4/2008? • Prospects for the future • How will the Games turn out and will they reduce the fear of China or not? • What about the bigger picture of China’s rise? Will it continue and, if it does, how will the world react? • Will it be peaceful? How about the Taiwan issue?