The GEOS-5 AOGCM

1. The GEOS-5 AOGCM Yury Vikhliaev Max Suarez Michele Rienecker Jelena Marshak, Bin Zhao, Robin Kovack, Yehui Chang, Jossy Jacob, Larry Takacs, Andrea Molod, Siegfried Schubert List of co-authors

2. GEOS-5 Model for CMIP5 NOAA/GFDL dynamics GMAO physics GSFC/GOCART/Aerosols IPCC aerosol and trace gas concentrations GMAO Land surface NOAA/GFDL ocean NASA Global Modeling Initiative chemistry DOE/LANL sea ice model For time-slice chemistry-climate simulations

3. GEOS-5 AOGCM Coupling Configuration Atmospheric Model on AGCM Grid (GEOS-5) Momentum, Heat, Moisture fluxes, Gas Exchanges Surface Wind, Air Temperature, Specific Humidity, other atmos constituents All air-sea exchanges are implicit in time Air-sea Interface Component On Exchange grid Sea Ice Thermodynamics (CICE) Diurnal Layer (Price) Momentum, Heat , Fresh Water, and Salt Fluxes Gas Exchanges Mixed Layer Currents, Temperature, Salinity, etc Ocean Model on OGCM Grid Ocean Dynamics and Transport (MOM4) Sea Ice Dynamics (CICE) Ocean Radiation (NOMB) Ocean Biology (NOMB)

4. GEOS-5 AGCM Component • 20 resolution with 72 vertical levels up to 0.01hPa • Finite volume dynamic core (lat-lon version) • Physics • Chou Radiation: shortwave, long wave • Turbulent mixing: vertical diffusion, PBL parametrization, GWD. • LSM: Catchment (Koster) • Moist: RAS convection, Bacmeister moist physics • Prescribed aerosols and ozone

5. Ocean • MOM4 • B-grid, tripolar, Z-coordinate • Two configurations • 1° (0.5° equatorial refinement) x 50 levels • 0.5° (0.25° equatorial refinement) x 40 levels • KPP vertical mixing • Isoneutral horizontal mixing • Anisotropic horizontal viscosity • Sea ice: CICE (LANL)

6. Target Projects for GEOS-5 AOGCM • ODAS (weakly coupled assimilation) • CMIP-5 Decadal climate simulations • Seasonal climate predictions

7. Validation Run AGCM 144x91x72 OGCM 360x200x50 ~100 years Initial conditions: Levitus T and S, steady state ocean; atmospheric state from uncoupled experiment.

9. Zonal Mean Temperature Coupled Uncoupled

10. TOA Radiation Coupled Uncoupled

11. 300mb Eddy Height Coupled Uncoupled

12. Sea Level Pressure Coupled Uncoupled

13. Total Precipitation

14. SST Bias

15. SSS Bias

16. Zonal Mean Temperature

17. Zonal Mean Salinity

18. Equatorial Pacific SST

19. Equatorial Pacific SST Annual Cycle

20. Equatorial Pacific Zonal Wind Stress

21. Equatorial Pacific Taux Annual Cycle

22. Equatorial Pacific T,S

23. Equatorial Undercurrent

24. Equatorial Surface Currents

25. Equatorial Pacific T GEOS5 TAO

26. Equatorial Pacific U GEOS5 ADCP

27. Sea Ice Fraction, DJF

28. Sea Ice Fraction, JJA

30. Variability • MJO (daily precipitation) – get Wheeler-Kiladis diagram from Yehui Chang • ENSO (nino3 ts, map (variance)) • PDO? (compare to HADSST) • NAO?

32. Leading Mode of Global SST GEOS5 HadlSST

33. Leading Mode of Global SST GEOS5 HadlSST

34. ENSO Teleconnections Coupled Uncoupled

35. Results of Replaying AOGCM to Scout Reanalysis (1982-2005) GODAS SODA Replay 35 °C

36. NASA GMAO Decadal Prediction Runs • GMAO will contribute decadal prediction runs • GEOS-5 AOGCM: • Initialized using weakly coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation based on MERRA • Includes aerosol direct effects • 10-year, five-member ensemble predictions with 1º AGCM, 1/2º OGCM • 30-year, five-member ensemble predictions with 2º AGCM, 1/2º OGCM • 20th Century simulations with 2º AGCM, 1/2º OGCM, include a 10-member ensemble of free-running model and a MERRA-constrained run • Additional simulations with GEOS-CCM will include atmospheric chemistry-climate interactions • Simulations distributed through NCCS Earth System Grid node.

37. Updated diagnostics - Upper ocean Average T in upper 300m 30S – 30N For CMIP5 forecasts will use anomaly assimilation to reduce the impacts of climate drift – still testing the initialization. 70S – 30S Legend T300 T300 Anomaly 70S – 70N 30N – 70N

38. Summary

39. Acknowledgments