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The Presidential Selection Process?

The Presidential Selection Process?. New reading for Thursday. E-Reserves Presidency Reading folder Bimes and Nichols, Debating the Presidency, Chapter 1 Savage, “Bush challenges hundreds of laws”. A two-stage process. Nomination Primaries: really selecting delegates

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The Presidential Selection Process?

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  1. The Presidential Selection Process?

  2. New reading for Thursday • E-Reserves • Presidency Reading folder • Bimes and Nichols, Debating the Presidency, Chapter 1 • Savage, “Bush challenges hundreds of laws”

  3. A two-stage process • Nomination • Primaries: really selecting delegates • National Nominating Conventions • General Election

  4. Democratic National Convention & Republican National Convention • Delegates from each state meet to vote on which candidate will be the party’s nominee for President

  5. All about Delegate Selection • Presidential Primary: • A state-sponsored election to select delegates to national nominating convention • Caucus: • A meeting where any affiliated voter can come and select individuals to serve as delegates in favor of a candidate

  6. The Presidential nomination process • The Invisible Primary: going on today! • Competition for: • media “frontrunner” status • elite endorsements • money

  7. Republican nomination 2000 • Bush’s money • April 1999: $6 million • July 1999: $36 million • December 1999: $70 million • Closest competitor: McCain • July 1999: $6 million • December 1999: $15 million

  8. Bush: Michigan Gov. John Engler (R) Oklahoma Gov. Frank A. Keating Fla. Gov. Jeb Bush (R) Conn. Gov. John G. Rowland (R Mass. Gov. Argeo Paul Cellucci Colo. Gov. Bill Owens (R) Idaho Gov. Dirk Kempthorne (R) Montana Gov. Marc Racicot (R) R.I. Gov. Lincoln C. Almond La. Gov. M.J. "Mike" Foster (R) Pa. Gov. Tom Ridge (R) Kan. Gov. Bill Graves (R) Virginia Gov. James S. Gilmore II N.Y. Gov. George E. Pataki Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt (R) Wyo. Gov. Jim Geringer (R) Wis. Gov. Tommy Thompson Neb. Gov. Mike Johanns (R) Nev. Gov. Kenny Guinn (R) Ohio Gov. Robert A Taft II (R) Ill. Gov. George H. Ryan (R) Tenn. Gov. Don Sundquist (R) Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad (R) Ariz. Gov. Jane Hull (R) W.Va. Gov. Cecil H. Underwood N.J. Gov. Christine Todd Whitman Alexander Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad (R) Tenn. Gov. Don Sundquist (R) Forbes NM Governor Gary Johnson Hatch UT Gov. Mike Levitt Quayle Miss. Gov. Fordice & Endorsements…

  9. Nominations • The Invisible Primary • The Media’s Expectations Game

  10. Nominations • The Invisible Primary • Expectations • The importance of Iowa and New Hampshire

  11. A representative beginning?From the 2000 Census

  12. A representative beginning?From the 2000 Census

  13. A representative beginning?From the 2000 Census

  14. A representative beginning?From the 2000 Census

  15. Nominations • The Invisible Primary • Expectations • The importance of Iowa and New Hampshire • Frontloading

  16. Any good things about New Hampshire and Iowa going first?Any bad things about California going so early next year (feb. 5!)

  17. The bandwagon effect AP delegate totals, March 17, 2004 (2,162 needed to win nomination)   Kerry: 2333 Edwards: 530 Dean: 156 Clark: 73 Sharpton: 26 Kucinich: 22 Lieberman: 2 Gephardt: 2

  18. National Party Nominating Conventions • August of presidential election year • Historically, delegates actually decided nominations • Today, delegates (mostly) committed to candidates

  19. General Election Rules • FECA

  20. Federal Election Campaign Act • In general: Bans large donations by individuals • Individuals can only give $2000 to a candidate in the primary, and $2000 in the general election • Primary elections: creates a voluntary subsidy for candidates who enter primary elections • All funds candidates raise in small amounts ($250 or less) are matched by the federal government on Jan 1 of election year • General election: Public financing for presidential campaigns (with limits on campaign spending)

  21. General Election Rules • FECA • The Electoral College

  22. The Electoral College • Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress

  23. Electoral College • Each state gets number of electors equal to Reps + Senators • Electors are NOT Reps or Senators themselves • Electors chosen by the parties + campaigns • Electors meet in own states • Cast two votes, one for president, one for vice president • Person with majority of electoral votes becomes president • If no majority, House of Representatives (one vote per state delegation) selects president from among top three Electoral College vote-getters

  24. Strategic Consequences of the Electoral College?

  25. Strategic consequences of the Electoral College • Candidates focus on big states with lots of Electoral Votes • Candidates focus on swing states, where money and face time might make a difference

  26. REPUBLICAN STATES: AL: 9, AR: 3, AK: 6, GA: 15, ID: 4, IN: 11, KS: 6, KY: 8, LA: 9, MS: 6, MT: 3, NE: 5, NC: 15, ND: 3, OK: 7, SC: 8, SD: 3, TX: 34, UT: 5, VA: 13, WY: 3. Total: 176 DEMOCRATIC STATES CA: 55, CT: 7, DE: 3, DC: 3, HI: 4, IL: 21, ME: 4, MD: 10, MA: 12, NJ: 15, NY: 31, RI: 4, VT: 3 Total: 169 Sure things

  27. The purple states • The West: • Arizona: 10 EV, Colorado: 9 EV, Nevada: 5 EV, • New Mexico: 5 EV, Oregon: 7 EV, Washington: 11 EV • The Midwest: • Minnesota: 10 EV, Iowa: 7 EV, Missouri: 11 EV, Ohio: 20 EV, Pennsylvania: 21 EV, Michigan 17 EV • Wisconsin: 10 EV, • Border states: • Tennessee: 11 EV, West Virginia: 5 EV • The South: Florida: 27 EV • The North: New Hampshire: 4 EV

  28. Targeted States, 2004

  29. The Electoral Calendar • ELECTION DAY • By late evening, one candidate leads in the exit polls in enough states to win 270 Electoral Votes, and the Media declares a winner. • One candidate concedes the election, the other proclaims victory (usually)

  30. The Electoral Calendar • First Monday following First Wednesday in December: Electors meet in their state capitols and cast their formal votes for president • January 6, 2009: The President of the Senate opens and counts the votes • January 20, 2009: The newly elected (or re-elected) president is inaugurated

  31. Some problems with the Electoral College? • Faithless Electors? • A small/big state advantage? • The winner of the popular vote doesn’t always become president

  32. What kinds of candidates are favored in this system?Are they the kind we want?

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