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Denise L. Mauzerall Xiaoping Wang Quansong Tong

Integrated Assessments: Using CMAQ/CAMx to Evaluate Health Impacts of Air Pollution in the United States and China. Denise L. Mauzerall Xiaoping Wang Quansong Tong Science, Technology and Environmental Policy program Woodrow Wilson School Princeton University.

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Denise L. Mauzerall Xiaoping Wang Quansong Tong

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  1. Integrated Assessments: Using CMAQ/CAMx to Evaluate Health Impacts of Air Pollution in the United States and China Denise L. Mauzerall Xiaoping Wang Quansong Tong Science, Technology and Environmental Policy program Woodrow Wilson School Princeton University Presented at Models-3 Workshop, RTP, NC, Oct. 28, 2003

  2. Overall Objectives • Utilize science to inform air quality policy • Methodology: • Use atmospheric modeling and available data to describe air quality • Evaluate impacts of air pollution on human health and agriculture using exposure-response functions from literature • Monetize the costs of the impacts • Examine alternative energy/pollution control technologies and policies for optimal cost-effective air quality control strategies

  3. Ongoing Integrated Assessment Projects at Princeton Using Models-3/CMAQ • Evaluate effectiveness of the current NOx emissions cap-and-trade program in the North-Eastern United States on reducing surface O3 levels and resulting health effects. • Evaluate impact of air pollution on health in the Shandong region of China. • Evaluate long-term impacts of air pollution on health and the environment in the United States.

  4. Integrated Assessment Approach Technology SMOKE MM5 / RAMS Pollutant Emissions CMAQ / CAMx Ambient Concentrations Policy Control Options Population Distribution Human Exposure Epidemiological Exposure-Response Functions Health Effects Economic Analysis Social Benefits

  5. Charging NOx Emitters for Health Damages:An Exploratory Analysis Denise L. Mauzerall, Babar Sultan, David Bradford Princeton University

  6. Outline • Description of NOx Emissions Trading in NE United States • Evidence that NOx Cap-and-Trade program has failed to reduce surface O3 concentrations • Free trades permitted between May – September regardless of: • temperature variability • Biogenic hydrocarbon emissions • Population density • Modeling to answer questions of how O3 production and mortalities changes with: • high / low temperatures on the days of NOx emission? • Regions of high / low isoprene emission? • Regions of high / low population density?

  7. OTC NOx Budget Cap and Trade Program Goal: Reduce summer NOx emissions within 13 north-eastern U.S. states in order to attain NAAQS for surface O3 (85 ppb over 8-hour average). Regulatory Approach: • Limit total NOx emissions from stationary sources such as power plants and industrial boilers, but permit trading among emission sources. • Program capped summertime NOx emissions in 1999 at less than half of the 1990 baseline emissions of 490,000 tons. Question: Do O3 concentrations in the region decrease after the emissions cap-and-trade program is put in place in summer 1999?

  8. EPA-AIRS O3 Data In 13 eastern U.S. OTC states May - September Black = 1995-1998 (pre-cap) Red = 1999-2001 (post-cap) There is no significant reduction in O3 concentrations after the cap-and-trade program is in place!

  9. Modeling Analysis • For each scenario, two CAMx simulations are conducted for July 7-18, 1995: • Standard simulation with all regional emissions. • Perturbation simulations (NOx emissions from individual power plants are reduced by a fixed amount) during conditions of: • high/low temperature, • high/low isoprene, • High/low population. • Calculate DO3 resulting from difference between standard run and each perturbation run • Estimate change in mortality resulting from change of O3 distribution and exposed population.

  10. High Temperature Period Total Increase in Mortality = 0.17 Total O3 increase = 36 ppb NOx emissions = 1.77 x 106 moles from one power plant in 24-hours results in the following change in O3 concentration and mortalities. Mean Temp = 302 K +/- 3.6 K (83.5 F)

  11. Low Temperature Period Total Increase in Mortality = 0.0 Total O3 increase = 22 ppb NOx emissions = 1.77 x 106 moles from one power plant in 24-hours results in the following change in O3 concentration and mortalities. Mean Temp = 296 K +/- 4.3 K (72 F)

  12. High Isoprene Emission Region Total Increase in Mortality = 0.13 Total O3 increase = 170 ppb NOx emissions = 1.77 x 106 moles NOx from one power plant in 24-hours results in the following change in O3 concentration and mortalities.

  13. Low Isoprene Emission Region Total Increase in Mortality = 0.09 Total O3 increase = 46 ppb Change in O3 concentration and resulting change in Mortality for unit change in NOx emissions from a single power plant in 24-hours. DNOx = 1.77 x 106 moles NOx .

  14. High Population Region Total Increase in Mortalities = 0.21 Total O3 increase = 40 ppb Change in O3 concentration and resulting change in Mortality for unit change in NOx emissions from a single power plant in 24-hours. DNOx = 1.77 x 106 moles NOx

  15. Low Population Region Total Increase in Mortalities = 0.19 Total O3 increase = 121 ppb Change in O3 concentration and resulting change in Mortality for unit change in NOx emissions from a single power plant in 24-hours. DNOx = 1.77 x 106 moles NOx

  16. Conclusions on Emissions Trading • NOx emissions in locations of high temperature and high isoprene emissions result in higher O3 concentrations. • NOx emissions near regions of high population result in greater mortalities. • Controls on temporal and spatial location of NOx emissions are critical, even within the May-September O3 season, to reduce damage resulting from increased O3 concentrations.

  17. Future Work • Estimate economic costs of mortalities and morbidity • Evaluate feasibility of: • charging emitters for the damage they cause • adjusting number of pollution permits available in locations of high ozone production potential and large population density. • Examine ability of chemical weather forecasting system to predict future damage from emissions so that emitters may adjust their emissions to minimize their total costs.

  18. Evaluating Adverse Health Impacts of Air Pollution in Eastern China-- the Price of Clean Air Xiaoping Wang, Denise Mauzerall Princeton University Yongtao Hu, Armistead Russell Georgia Institute of Technology

  19. Questions to be addressed • How much health damage does current air pollution cause in eastern China based on year 2000 emissions using conventional energy technologies? • To what extent can alternative energy and pollution control technologies mitigate air pollution damage to human health? • What are the conditions and constraints for China to adopt a coal gasification-based energy system in both the near- and long- term?

  20. Integrated Assessment Approach • Link emissions from a particular energy end-use sector/activity to the health effects. • Four parts: I. Develop high-resolution regional anthropogenic emission inventory II. Simulate ambient concentrations of PM and gaseous species, including secondary PM using Models-3/CMAQ III. Estimate physical health impacts associated with air pollution exposure IV. Quantify costs resulting from health effects of ambient air pollution exposure

  21. PART I Emission Inventory Development

  22. Emission Inventory (1) E—emissions A—activity rate EF—emission factor j—species k—municipality l—sector m—fuel or activity type n—abatement technology 8 species(j): CO, NH3, SO2,NOx,PM10,PM2.5,NMVOC,CO2 87 municipalities (k), 72 source categories (l*m*n)

  23. Emission Inventory (2)

  24. Emissions by Sector

  25. II Model Simulations

  26. Model Boundary and Location of the Case Region Core region CMAQ domains (solid squares) and MM5 domains (dashed squares)

  27. Model configuration • Map projection: Lambert Conformal, central meridian: 116º, latitude of origin: 35º, 1st standard parallel: 25º, 2nd standard parallel: 47º • Model domains: two with 12km and 36km resolutions • MM5: 54 * 54 grid cells for the 36km domain, 60*72 grid cells for the 12km domain, 34 vertical layers from surface to 100mb • SMOKE and CMAQ: 48*48 grid cells for the 36km domain, 54*66 grid cells for the 12km domain, 13 vertical layers • Carbon Bond 4 – ae3 – aq chemical mechanism • Running periods: January, April, July, and October 2-18, 2000.

  28. Midnight 1pm Emissions 4/8/2000 1) Mobile 2) Area 3) Total

  29. 1pm Midnight 4/8/2000 Air Temp Wind ASO4

  30. Comparison of Simulated Concentrations with Observations

  31. PART III Health Impact Analysis

  32. Methods for Health Impact Analysis cases = Iref * Pop* [exp (*c)-1] Cases = annual change in mortalities or morbidities resulting from air pollution exposure Iref = annual baseline mortality /morbidity rate Pop = size of affected population  = relative risk per unit change in concentrations c = annual change in ambient concentrations

  33. Changes in PM2.5 and mortality associated with anthro emissions Population DPM2.5 in 2000 Domain Population: 281 million Total PM2.5-related chronic mortality: 840,000 deaths Chronic mortality associated with DPM2.5

  34. PM2.5-related chronic mortality by sector

  35. Further Work A. Conduct an economic analysis B. Construct two alternative energy technology and emission scenarios for the year 2020 in the study region C. Conduct a sensitivity analysis for health impacts to various input variables such as emissions and exposure-response coefficients

  36. Summary • Developed an anthropogenic emission inventory for the Shandong region of China. • Conducted MM5/SMOKE/CMAQ simulations and comparison of calculated and observed pollutant concentrations for the region • Calculated health damages associated with the year 2000 pollution levels • Demonstrated the benefit of using an integrated approach for examining the environmental externalities associated with human activities • Will examine potential gains in health benefits by adopting advanced, cleaner energy technologies in 2020 Stay Tuned!

  37. Presented at CMAS Models-3 Workshop, RTP, NC, Oct. 28, 2003 An Integrated Assessment Model:Architecture, Development and Application Quansong Tong and Denise Mauzerall Princeton University Robert Mendelsohn Yale University

  38. Overall Objectives • Quantify the damage caused by air pollution over the continental U.S. • Monetize these damages so that their impact can be included in national economic accounting. • Develop a user-friendly integrated assessment model for community use.

  39. Model Framework Strategy Design Module Meteorology Module Emission Module Chemistry Transport Module Population & Dose Response Health Module Socio-economic Module Reanalysis Visualization

  40. Meteorology Module Chemical Transport Module Economic Valuation Module Health Module Emission Module Strategy Design Module Integrated Assessment Model:Model Flow Chart Input Output • For streamline above, • Provide interface to utilize state-of-the-art models • Develop needed additional modules based on literature review

  41. Current Model Components • Emission Module: SMOKE version 1.5 • Meteorology module: MM5 version 3.5 • Chemical transport module: CMAQ 4.3 • Health module: Under construction • Economic module: Yale Microeconomics • Others: SAS/S-Plus, arcGIS, JSP/ Servlet container, etc.

  42. Chemical Transport Module Output Exposure Mortality and Morbidity Population Census GIS Information Dose Response Health Module • Current version includes an exposure response function for O3; • PM2.5 and SO2 exposure-response functions are being added; • Plan to include estimates of visibility losses, material damage, ecosystem losses, and crop losses in future versions.

  43. Hardware & Software • 32-node Beowulf Linux cluster • 2 x 2.4 GHz / 512K cache Xeon; 2GB DDR, 200 MHz RAM • 1 TB SCSI hard disks; 1 fast-Ethernet and 2 Gigabit switches • Portland and Intel Fortran/C/C++ compiler • MPICH/PVM compiled with PGF/Intel • openPBS job scheduler • MPIEXEC workload manager

  44. Scalability Analysis

  45. Dynamic Workload Generator Jobs Submission Scheduler & Workload Manager Validation Filter Master Node User Database Online Strategy Design Bulk Computation Intermediate Final Results HTTP Server Model Output Analysis Tools User Database Beowulf Cluster Integrated Assessment ModelHardware/Software Approach

  46. Integrated Modeling SystemPotential Benefits to the Community • A platform to bridge different scientific disciplines with end-users outsides the community; • Make use of state of the art models provided from different scientific communities; • Provide the full functions to users without locally installing the system. • User friendly and transparent to those not model experts; • Centralized data storage and better utilization of model data; • Enhanced concept of “One-Community” modeling!

  47. Summary / Future Directions • We have incorporated the latest research from atmospheric science, epidemiology and economics into an integrated framework useful for informing policy. • Plan to make the integrated assessment modeling system more user-friendly and flexible to facilitate additional applications. • Potentially make the model available for use by the community. • Challenge is to minimize uncertainties involved in individual model components in order to maximize the utility of the coupled integrated assessment model.

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