DOI Climate Science Centers Science to Support Adaptation

1. DOI Climate Science Centers Science to Support Adaptation Robin O’Malley Policy and Partnership Coordinator USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey

2. Rainy season arriving later and ending sooner with increased rainfall volume and flooding. 2010-2011 drought and record summer heat, which caused a lot of ponds to dry up Uncertainty associated with undefined tribal water rights Diminishing Spring snowpack Shift from snow dominant to transient basin watersheds Seasonal stream flows are critically important to salmon and steelhead Long relationship of indigenous Americans with plants, animals, and landscape, including plants used for traditional medicines and ceremonies.

3. Mountain Pine Beetle outbreaks 60,000 acres of yellow cedar trees were dying.... Increases in the frequency and ferocity of storm surges in the Bering Sea Accelerated thawing of the discontinuous permafrost Rainfall pattern is unpredictable. Not enough water for agriculture Corn is ripening earlier New England lobster harvesters have seen a rise in a shell wasting disease of unknown origin Thawing of traditional food storage cellars due to warming soil temperature

4. Assumptions…. Climate change is occurring Current policy actions are inadequate (and too late) to avoid continuing change over decades to centuries Thus, human and natural systems must adapt Effective adaptation will require science, observations, and tools that do not presently exist Effective adaptation will be enabled by landscape and regional level partnership action on both science and management

5. IEM for Alaska Conceptual Framework Other stakeholder groups Animal Performance Models Habitat Change Models Fire Management Models Hypothetical Model Impact Models vegetation cover biomass productivity Integrated Ecosystem Model Fire Hydrology Permafrost surface hydrology Conservation & Resource Management Decisions canopy cover probability of thermokarst species composition Climate Change probability of fire vegetation cover Vegetation probability of fire surface hydrology model output x model output y Communication of Needs

6. Focalspecies

7. July conditions 2060-2069 minus 1990-1999 cloud cover solar radiation precipitation ground temperature

8. Drought and Summer Temperature Risk

9. Composite Climate Change Risk Williams et al. 2009

10. National Climate Change & Wildlife Science Center • Mission Provide natural resource managers with the tools and information they need to develop and execute management strategiesthat address the impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife, and their habitats • Focus on climate change adaption & impacts “Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic change effects, to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities"

12. Key CSC Characteristics • University/federal joint venture – access capabilities feds don’t have • Training of grad students – pipeline • Small federal staff • Filling regional gaps • Synthesis / assessment / aggregation • $3-4 m/year, majority in flexible federal funds • Will build significant cyber infrastructure network • Guided by management-driven questions

13. Alaska: University of Alaska / Fairbanks (at Anchorage) • NW: Oregon State, U-Washington, U-Idaho • SE: North Carolina State University • SW: U-Arizona + Univ. of California – Davis, UCLA, Univ. of Colorado, Desert Research Institute (Nevada) & Scripps Institution • NC: Colorado State + U-Colorado, CO School of Mines, Iowa State, U-Montana, U-Nebraska-Lincoln, Kansas State, Montana State, and U-Wyoming. • NE: U-Massachusetts-Amherst, with College of Menominee Nation, Columbia University, Marine Biological Laboratory, U-Minnesota, University of Missouri at Columbia. University of Wisconsin at Madison • SC: U-Oklahoma + Texas Tech University, Louisiana State University, The Chickasaw Nation, The Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State University, and NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory • Pacific: University of Hawaii-Manoa with U-HHawaii-Hilo, and University of Guam 2010 2011 2012

14. Executive Stakeholder Advisory Committee NW CSC Co-Chair-- US Geological Survey Co-Chair—Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians (ATNI); Swinomich Indian Tribal Community; Columbia River Intertribal Fish Commission Environmental Protection Agency US Bureau of Reclamation US Forest Service – National Forest System, R&D State of Montana State of Oregon State of Washington National Park Service Natural Resource Conservation Service Bureau of Land Management US Forest Service US Army Corps of Engineers – Witt Anderson / Rebecca Weiss Bonneville Power Administration National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fish and Wildlife Service Federal Highway Administration Great Basin Landscape Conservation Cooperative North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative Great Northern Landscape Conservation Cooperative

17. “Big Science” or “Pure Science” atmospheric, ecological, geologic, hydrologic Translation, Integration, Assessment Application to Management Concerns

18. Connecting Climate Change to Resource Management Global Climate Models Describe likely climate changes at a very large scale Produced by agencies, universities, and research centers Local / Regional Climate Information Describe likely climate changes at a regional or local scale. Downscaled from global models or produced from regional models. Ecological Understanding Describe basic ecological processes (hydrology, population biology, ecosystem functions, processes, and services) Forecasts of Ecological Response Describe likely effects on fish, wildlife, ecosystems Use regional and local projections of climate change Major focus of National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center Adaptive Management Conservation actions designed to react to changing circumstances Identified by Landscape Conservation Cooperatives and other resource managers Monitoring and Feedback Identify effective actions, inform mid-course corrections A fundamental component of effective planning and management

19. NCCWSC Science Priorities(national – built from regional) • Assessments of current climate change information • Understand climate from natural effects on plants/animals • Synthesize forecasting of adaptation to climate change • Quantify species and habitat vulnerability • Develop clearinghouse & network capacity for data • Develop management tools

20. CSCs and Tribes – Engagement To Date • Commitment to include tribal members on CSC Stakeholder Advisory Committees • Commitment to government to government consultation • College of Menominee Nation – formal partner in NE CSC • Chickasaw Nation and Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma – formal members of SC CSC • Seeking tribal members for Federal Advisory Committee Experiments – Adaptive Management Opportunities for Learning

21. A new model • Collaborative priority setting • Strong management linkages • Translational science • Collaborative science planning • Nimble design, flexible resources • Collaboration is an assigned task

22. Thank you ROBIN O’MALLEY romalley@usgs.gov 703-648-4086 www.nccwsc.usgs.gov