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Contribution of Climate Science to Sustainability Science

Symp. On Global and Regional Environmental Changes(2013.08.05). Contribution of Climate Science to Sustainability Science. Akimasa Sumi President National Institute of Environmental Studies Professor Emeritus The University of Tokyo. Recognition of the limit of the Earth.

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Contribution of Climate Science to Sustainability Science

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  1. Symp. On Global and Regional Environmental Changes(2013.08.05) Contribution of Climate Science to Sustainability Science Akimasa Sumi President National Institute of Environmental Studies Professor Emeritus The University of Tokyo

  2. Recognition of the limit of the Earth • Finitecharacter of the Earth • Limits to Growth • Spaceship Earth

  3. What is “Sustainablity Science”? • Science contributing to establishment of Sustainable Society • Obtain and Accumulate a different type of knowledge • Disciplinary Science Free from value • Mode1 and Mode2 • A Value-related science • Holistic approach • Heuristic approach

  4. Roots of “Sustainability” Sustainable Development • “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (WCED or Brundtland Commission) • ambiguous definition • sometimes twisted for political purposes • Many difinitions • Weak constrain vs. Strong constrain(role of artifacts) (http://www.nih.gov/news/NIH-Record/10_20_98/story06.htm)

  5. Definition of IR3S,UT A new academic discipline that seeks to understand the interactions within and betweenglobal, social, and human systems, the complex mechanisms that lead to degradation of these systems, and concomitant risks to human well-being and security, and then to propose visions and methods for protecting and/or restoring these systems and linkages.

  6. Global System（Planetary base for human survival: Geosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere.) • Climate change • Depletion of natural resources and energy • Ecosystem devastation • Crustal change adverse effect Human survival and activity (Photos taken by Prof. Yoshinobu Tsuji, UT)

  7. Social System（Created by human beings as a societal base : Political, Economic, and Industrial structures） • Economic development • Technological innovation • Pollution • Inequality • Declining birthrates • Aging society Restructuring societal base for a truly “fulfilled” life

  8. Human System(Health, Security, Safety, Fulfillment, Lifestyle, Norms and Values Issues impeding human system sustainability: • Diseases • Inequality, unfairness • Poverty • Hunger • Exclusion • Conflict (Disparities in values, e.g., religious tensions) Threatens human security

  9. Human System(Health, Security, Safety, Fulfillment, Lifestyle, Norms and Values Issues impeding human system sustainability: • Diseases • Inequality, unfairness • Poverty • Hunger • Exclusion • Conflict (Disparities in values, e.g., religious tensions) Threatens human security

  10. Linkages among three systems Global system Climate system Energy and Resources Ecosystem Environmental Risk Management Low-Carbon Society infectious diseases natural disaster Global warming Complex Problem Social system Politics Economy Industry Technology Human system Security/Safety Lifestyle Health Norms and values Mass production, consumption, destruction Resource-circulating society

  11. Physics, Chemistry, Biology, medicine, Engineering ・・・ Co2 Disaster prediction Environment tax Awareness for disaster prevention Global system Law, Policy Sc. Economics Sociology Management ・・・ Social system Human system Amount of Waste Lifestyles Transdisciplinary approach Ethics Religious St. Medical Sc. Psychology Philosophy ・・・ Sustainability Science fuses Naturaland Social Sciences with indicators

  12. Research area toward sustainability Resource scarcity, mass-production mass-consumption, waste problems Climate change, energy security Climate change and energy/resources Indices: Quantities of natural resources exploited, Recycling rates, amount of waste Indices: Energy production (fossil fuels, renewable), GHG emissions A Sustainable Society Resource-circulating society Low Carbon Society Ecosystems and environmental load Nature-harmonious society Climate change and ecosystems Malfunction of ecosystem services, Loss of biodiversity Indices: Land use, Changes in land use rates, Ecosystem functions Integrated and Very Long-term Scenario for Sustainable Society

  13. Liberté,Egalité et Fratermité

  14. Contribution of Climate Science to Sustainability

  15. Concepts giveb by Climate Science • ComplexityCoupled System • Atm.-ocean Coupled system • Mutual Interaction • Cycle • Energy Cycle, Water Cycle, Carbon Cycle,etc. • Time-integration---temporal domain

  16. When CO2 is emitted, O2 is decreasing! Circulation is critical for sustainability!

  17. Oxygen has been accumulated in the Earth history! Photo-sysnthesis

  18. Biological Activity cannot accumulate Oxygen in the long time-scale • Photo-synthesis • CO2+H2O+Solar energy • CH2O(organic matter)+O2 • Decomposition, and respiration • CH2O(organic matter)+O2 • CO2+H2O+energy • Organic matter stored in sediment rocks

  19. Cycle or circulation is critical! A pendulum or an oscillation

  20. Radiation Balance(Energy Flow) Energy Cycle cannot be separated from Water Cycle!

  21. Energy • Solar Energy • S0=1360W/m２ • Iav=S0/4=340W/m2 • Annual　　２．７ｘ１０２４J/year • Energy Use　　２．３ｘ１０２０J/year • 1/10000! • Food2000kcal=8400kJ/day/Capita

  22. Most of energy is used for our social activities! • There are large room for re-design of our social system!

  23. Complexity • Many sub-systems! • There are mutual interactions

  24. Our environment is so complicated!

  25. Index to assess sustainability in this simulation • Low carbon society • CO2 emissions from energy combustion • Primary energy demand • Carbon price (marginal cost of CO2 emission reduction) • Resource-circulating society • Material input (weight of sum of fossil fuels, biomass, cement, steel, copper and aluminum) • Resource productivity (GDP/Material input) • Nature-harmonious society • Forest area • Economy • GDP

  26. Overall structure of AIM/CGE [Global] Production sector Production factor market Labor Capital Waste market Resource Land Iron Commodity market Final demand sector Agriculture energy Manu- facture Service Land for agriculture / livestock / timber / fuel wood / industry / residence Natural forest GHG emissions (CO2, …) Climate change Abroad Waste disposal & recycling Fossil fuel depletion Material cycle Environment Resource

  27. Forecasting and Backcasting

  28. Climate Model and Adaptation Technology Impact Assessments Adaptation Strategy Environmental Economy Industrial Technology Viewpoint of Value and Life 10 billion Society Sustainable Society Indpendent Individuals Increase of abnormal weather, and disaster Increase of social costs Economy decline、Unsatbilization of Society Future Prediction by Climate Model Available Energy, Food,and Water Forecasting Backcasting Env. Risk or Social Risk Management New vision for City and Village Secure and safety on Water and Food Present Society and Earth Climate Stabilization Strategy

  29. We need • Sharing knowledge and information • Modeling is critical • Accessbility and accountability • Tolerance

  30. Commonness and Diversity • Globalization and local/regional character • Value • Quality of life • Tolerance and mutual respect

  31. Summary • Cycle • Coupled System • Temporal domain issue • Modeling Assets of the human being

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