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St. Louis MSA Employment Outlook

St. Louis MSA Employment Outlook. Methods and Background. LEMA Objectives. Estimate Employment (Labor Demand & Wages Provide Baseline Projections Conduct Policy Simulations & Assess Impacts Education model. FAPRI-Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute.

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St. Louis MSA Employment Outlook

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  1. St. Louis MSA Employment Outlook Methods and Background

  2. LEMA Objectives • Estimate Employment (Labor Demand & Wages • Provide Baseline Projections • Conduct Policy Simulations & Assess Impacts • Education model

  3. FAPRI-Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute • Agricultural Baselines and Policy Simulations for the U.S. Congress & Department of Agriculture as well as European Union Commission • Formal Partnerships With Ireland, Africa, and the United Nations • Recognized Leader in Econometric Modeling and Policy Analysis • USDA ‘Secretary’s’ Award • American Agricultural Economics Assoc. Policy Award

  4. Labor Supply & Demand S: Education & Training Now D: Labor Market Demand

  5. Model and Outreach Development • Identify & Collect Data • Conduct Employer Interviews • Refine Model Specification • Initiate Collaboration Between LEMA & MERIC • Estimate Initial Model • Continue Outreach Efforts

  6. Baseline Conferences • Discuss Economic Assumptions • Present Local, State, National Trends • Review Projections • Receive Expert Criticism & Comment • Document & Analyze Feedback • Publish & Distribute Annual Baseline • Conduct Policy Simulations

  7. Steps in Econometric Modeling -- The Never Ending Story Model Specification Data Model Estimation Model Testing & Validation • Application • Baseline projections • Policy simulation

  8. The Policy Simulation Process Baseline Exogenous Values Alternative Policy Variable Values The LEMA Model Baseline Forecast Alternative Forecast Policy Effect = Alternative minus Baseline

  9. The Baseline/Scenario Approach With Assistance Without Assistance

  10. Total Modeled Employment Last 10 years Grew at ~10,600 per year Only 11,000 in Projection

  11. Employment by Category

  12. Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment: SIC 371

  13. Future Course of Action • Labor supply & wage models • Occupational demand and wage models • Policy simulations • Education model

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