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Climate Information Needed to Inform Resource Management Decision-making

Climate Information Needed to Inform Resource Management Decision-making. High scientific credibility Regionally specific Define the range of uncertainty/ level of confidence Climate variables relevant to resource management. Climate Scenarios for the Northern Rockies. A Joint Venture of:

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Climate Information Needed to Inform Resource Management Decision-making

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  1. Climate Information Needed to Inform Resource Management Decision-making • High scientific credibility • Regionally specific • Define the range of uncertainty/ level of confidence • Climate variables relevant to resource management

  2. Climate Scenarios for the Northern Rockies • A Joint Venture of: • U.S. Forest Service Northern Region • U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Region 6 • Climate Impacts Group of University of Washington (NOAA funded) • Replicated by USFS Region 6/PNW Station

  3. Four Main Deliverables • Statistical Summaries of Observed (20th Century) Trends in Temperature and Precip • Northern Rockies Specific Evaluation of 21st Century Projections from 20 GCMS • Statistical downscaling of 3 - 4 selected GCMs/emissions scenarios • Hydrologic Impacts

  4. 20 Climate Models

  5. Multiple Emissions Scenarios

  6. Regional Evaluation of 20 GCMS • Skill at simulating observed 20th Century trends • Each model run with 2 Emissions Scenarios B1 and A1B • Weighted ensemble average • Identification of • “Best-case” scenario • “Worst-case” scenario • “Medium” or Average scenario

  7. Range of Uncertainty from Different Models

  8. Multi-Model Range: Precipitation

  9. Statistical Downscaling of 3-4 GCMs • GCMs have coarse spatial resolution • Relatively simple delta method of statistical d0wnscaling

  10. Hydrologic Response Model • Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model • Snow water equivalent • Annual Runoff • Seasonal stream flow • Soil Moisture • Potential evapotranspiration

  11. Climate Projections are not Weather Forecasts • Climate projections estimate potential changes in long-term (generally 2-3 decade) averages • Users and resource managers need to understand limitations, key sources of uncertainty, and appropriate uses of climate projections. • Climate will still vary from year to year

  12. Changes in Averages versus in Extremes

  13. Benefits/Uses Regionally Specific Downscaled Climate Projections • Understand magnitude and direction of projected “local” changes • Improve understanding of uncertainty and confidence in climate projections • Reference dataset for evaluating potential impacts • Context for planning to sustain natural resources with high public values

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