1 / 16

The Likud’s Return to Power

The Likud’s Return to Power. By Doron Shultziner, Emory University. Likud’s Success Puzzle, 1977-2009 Likud won 7 out of 11 elections since 1977 Likud members held the position of Prime Minister for over 21 years 24 years counting Olmert Likud made a comeback in the 2009 elections

margot
Download Presentation

The Likud’s Return to Power

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Likud’s Return to Power By Doron Shultziner, Emory University

  2. Likud’s Success Puzzle, 1977-2009 • Likud won 7 out of 11 elections since 1977 • Likud members held the position of Prime Minister for over 21 years • 24 years counting Olmert • Likud made a comeback in the 2009 elections • from 12 to 27 seats

  3. The 17th Knesset elections, 2006 Center 36 Left wing 34 Right wing 50 Balad 3 Gil 7 Kadima 29 Labor 19 Ra’am Ta’al 4 Meretz 5 Likud 12 Hadash 3 Israel our Home 11 National Union - NRP 9 Shas 12 Left & Center 70 Religious Bloc 27 UTJ 6

  4. The shift to the right in elections 2009 -8 +1 -8 +15 +4 Balad 3 Gil 7 Kadima 29 Labor 19 Ra’am Ta’al 4 Meretz 5 Likud 12 Hadash 3 Israel our Home 11 National Union - NRP 9 Shas 12 -4 Religious Bloc 27 UTJ 6

  5. The 18th Knesset elections, February 2009 Center 28 Left wing 27 Right wing 65 Balad 3 Kadima 28 Likud 27 Israel our Home 15 Ra’am Ta’al 4 Labor 13 HADASH 4 Meretz 3 National Union 4 NRP3 Shas 11 Left & Center 55 Religious Bloc 23 UTJ 5

  6. Netanyahu’s Coalition 2009 narrow right wing coalition 61 Balad 3 Kadima 28 Likud 27 Israel our Home 15 Ra’am Ta’al 4 HADASH 4 Labor 13 Meretz 3 National Union 4 NRP3 Shas 11 Religious Bloc 23 UTJ 5

  7. Possible Explanations General Factors Ideology Commitment to Pristine Ideology and pragmatism Greater Eretz Israel Iron Wall: emphasis on military power • Anti-establishment spirit • Attentive to marginalized groups • Economic policies: free market • Leadership and open elite • Corruption and Anti-corruption

  8. Israeli-Jewish Group Identity Unsympathetic or even hostile world (Siege Mentality); Israel is strong but vulnerable Self-determination; Security; Jewishness Constitutive Norms Social Purpose Relational Comparisons Cognitive Models Non-Jews; Hostile Arab neighbors Heuristics: use strong measures for security; preserve unity

  9. Tapping into Group Heuristics: The Likud’s Campaigns • Categorization and Stereotypes • Monopoly over security • Monopoly over patriotism • Jewish Tradition • Negative Stereotypes of Opponents • Smolani (Pinko or Liberal) • Pro-Concession • Pro-Palestinian • Weak on Security • Self-righteous • Unpatriotic • Tel-Aviv or Shenkin • Anti-religious • Latte and Sushi?

  10. Categorization and Stereotypes Elections 2009: Concessions; Divide Jerusalem; Pro-Palestinian; Restraint; Weak on Security; Tel Aviv Elections 2006: Smolmert; Kadima (forward) to the 67’ lines

  11. Campaigns • Emphasis on fear and sense of security • “Bibi will unite the people; together we will not be afraid” • “With Tzipi Livni and the Kadima clan, we will not survive” • “Tzipi Livni helped Hamas and Hezbollah get stronger and hurt us – she is not worthy” • Tzipi Livni is “selling us to the Palestinians” and “dangerous the security of Israel” • Patriotism and Unity: • “Vote Likud if you are a patriot” • Subtext: if you don’t vote Likud you are not a patriot • “Likud – we are strong standing united” • Likud jingle: “Only one can against all the Left”

  12. When do Likud campaigns succeed? • Violence leads to increased reliance on heuristics of force reliance and preservation of unity • Elections: 1988 (1st Intifada), 1996 (Hamas terrorism), 2001 & 2003 (height of 2nd Intifada) (Berrebi & Klor, APSR 102, 2008) • 1992, 1999, and 2006 perceived security was higher • What about the 2009 elections?

  13. Winograd Report Jan. 2008 Gaza Operation Dec. 2008 Tzipi Livni wins Kadima Primaries Aug. 2008 Second Lebanon War (July-August) 2006

  14. Likud’s Splinter Parties

More Related