Occupational analysis - Sweden Torbjörn Israelsson torbjorn.israelsson@arbetsformedlingen.se

1. Occupational analysis - Sweden Torbjörn Israelsson torbjorn.israelsson@arbetsformedlingen.se Public Employment Service SwedenDepartment of Analysis

2. Forecasting – more effective matching • Forecasting and analysing labour market is a key for avoiding problems in the economy and get a better economical development – higher GD • More effective matching process – shorter duration of vacancies – higher production – higher economic growth in the country - higher GDP • A model for analysing labour market and forecasting

3. A model for analysing and forecasting labour demand by interviewing employers • Forecast models core are the employment offices • The choice of forecasting model based on the following thoughts: • Should basically be a public employment service model (PES). • Good knowledge of the local labour market; familiar with corporate recruitment needs and abilities of job seekers • Provides added value for both companies and job seekers • The Employment Service may be strong network of working life • Help job seekers with difficulties in entering the labour market • Gives everyone a good prerequisite for efficient matching, but also for a solid foundation for planning and developing labour market policy instruments

4. Purpose of Forecasting • Internal use in the organisation • Improve our understanding of the labour market • Better advice to job seekers on the recruitment needs and demand for different occupations, present and future • Better contact with and information to employers about the lack or surplus of job seekers with different skills • Needs analysis for the planning of the size and scope of the employment programs – needs of labour market training • Industries or other Associations

5. Purpose of Forecasting • External use • Inform and influence external actors • Government, parliament, local governments • Media • Other agencies and organizations at regional and national level • Schools and universities (including vocational guidance and people facing study-/career choices) • Employers' organizations and trade unions • The public • Scientists

6. Visit enterprises • Why personal interviews and not web- or mail surveys to companies? It's much more costly in terms of human resources – but it gives you a lot more knowledge and an more efficiency in matching jobseekers and vacancies. • Advances: • Good contacts with employers • Much more knowledge about local labour market • Much more knowledge about branches • Much more knowledge about occupations • Network of contacts • Good information to jobseekers • Good knowledge in the organisation and better planning of the work

7. Important information in the interview • Expected Employment Development • Future staffing needs • Any recruitment problems, lack occupations • To understand the company's skills, not just education and • experience, but also any claims for other skills, ex social skills • The aim is to get a good picture of demand for labour on the local labour market • Leading economic indicators such as new orders and stocks – you can get an early knowledge about what is going to happen on your local labour market one year ahead

8. Key figures Thousand persons Chage, thousand/ %-tage points Outcome Forecast Outcome Forecast 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 Labour force 4782 4838 4893 4915 492056 55 22 5 Employed 4381 4429 4520 4525 4500 49 91 5 -25 Umemployed 401 409 373 390 420 8 -36 17 30 Per cent of labour force 8,4 8,4 7,6 7,9 8,5 0,1 -0,8 0,3 0,6 Labour market programmes 127 185 178 186 190 58 -8 8 4 Per cent of labour force 2,7 3,8 3,6 3,8 3,9 1,2 -0,2 0,1 0,1 Soures: Statistics Sweden (SCB), the Swedish Public Employment Service

9. Short term forecastingoccupations in Sweden

10. Occupational forecasts • Short term forecasts – 1 year ahead • Long term forecasts – outlook 5-10 years ahead

11. Short term forecastinginformation sources • Information from employers • Information from public employment offices • Information from employers organisations and labour unions • Information from written reports and from other forecasters • Statistical information

12. Information from employers • Ask employers in a questionnaire – interviews in connection to our two forecasts • Information directly from employers is the most common way to get information about matching problems on the labour market • Most of the institutions which collect information about shortages only get it by branches, not by occupations, but PES in Sweden collect this information by branches and by occupations

13. Information from public employment offices • Occupational barometer – two times a year • Barometer questions to all employment offices all over Sweden • One question about present situation and another question about situation one year ahead • A sample of the most common occupations on the Swedish labour market • All sectors and all occupational groups are covered in the barometer • Answering in our forecasting Intranet system

14. Occupational forecast • We map about 200 professions • We use four digit level (ssyk close to Isco) • We pick up knowledge from Employment Officies • Employment offices get information from visiting companies and from the daily work

15. Assessment of the labour situation - today and 12 months ahead – from a sample of enterprises (interview result) and their expectations of development for occupations Is the main source for the Occupational compass (in Sweden) Based on enterprises expectations and judgement of labour market situation in occupations you get the recruitment situation for each occupation. You can compare the situation in each occupation between provinces and regions Important to get good quality in answers from employers and that they only answer for their own occupations Occupational questions

17. Information from employers organisations and labour unions • Regular contacts with experts from different branches • Branch councils at regional level and national level • Expert group concerning occupational forecasts

18. Occupational Compass – a way of showing results • A service of PES in Sweden (internet); labour market situation and prospects for a selection of occupations • Guidance Support for both job seekers (young people - primary target group) and work seekers • More effective matching process – shorter duration of vacancies – higher production – higher economic growth in the country - higher GDP

19. Results and output • Labour Market Outlooks A national report and 21 regional reports; one for each county, twice a year • Occupational Tendency Survey One national report published on the web, twice a year • The Occupational Compass web-based service launched in 2008, presenting labour market information and outlooks for a number of selected occupations (almost 200). For about half of these occupations: long term projections.

20. Short term forecast Example: Concrete workers Summary Statistics Long term forecast

21. Example: Concrete workers Forecast, describing text

22. Short term forecast Example: Concrete workers

23. Long term forecastingoccupations in Sweden

24. Long term forecastinginformation sources • Statistical information – basic information • Information from employers organisations and labour unions and other experts – structural changes • Information from written reports and from other forecasters • Difficult to ask about occupations in long terms by a questionnaire to employers – if so ask about structural changes for groups educated or of homogeny groups of occupations

25. Information from employers organisations and labour unions and other experts • Regular contacts with experts from different branches • Expert group at national level with experts from branches and institutions which works with long term forecasting

26. Supply and demand of labour analyse long trends

27. Statistical information • Demand of labour by occupation • Changes in employment • Occupational changers • Retirements • Supply of labour by occupations • Inflow of person into occupations • Migration

28. Opportunities to find a job 5-10 years ahead The need to recruit concrete workers will increase over the next ten years. This is partly due to increased construction investments and large numbers of retirements. The supply of skilled concrete workers is not sufficient because too few students study to the occupation. The Public Employment Service's assessment is that skilled concrete workers have good opportunities to find a job. The labour market will vary in individual years depending on the business cycle. Long term forecast concrete workers Five years Ten years Good opportunities to get a job Good opportunities to get a job

29. Example: Concrete workers Long term forecast Describing text

30. Labour Market Forecast by Occupations Department of Analyses

31. To create the shortage index Large surplus, = value 1 Surplus = value 2 Balance = value 3 Shortage = value 4 Large shortage = value 5 If all offices answer large surplus, the result in shortage index will be 1 Bild 31 The Occupational Tendency Survey

33. The Occupational Tendency Survey – Q1b Shortage index: ((2*1)+(5*2)+(35*3)+(19*4)+(8*5))/69 = 3,38

34. The scale classification in the shortage index Index > 4.0 large shortage Index 3.3-3.99 shortage Index 2.9-3.29 balance Index 2.0-2.89 surplus Index < 2.0 large surplus Bild 34 The Occupational Tendency Survey