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Global Wind day Emmeloord

Global Wind day Emmeloord. June 2014, Marc Schmitz , Rabobank. Healthy, albeit slowing growth Pressure on subsidy schemes due to economic downturn Expected re-powering in Germany 2014/2015 onwards More commitment from Dutch government

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Global Wind day Emmeloord

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  1. Global Wind day Emmeloord June 2014, Marc Schmitz, Rabobank

  2. Healthy, albeit slowing growth Pressure on subsidy schemes due to economic downturn Expected re-powering in Germany 2014/2015 onwards More commitment from Dutch government Three large wind farms in The Netherlands (Noordoostpolder) in progress New Dutch policy of 16% renewable energy by 2020 Growth slowed in mature markets, in upcoming countries accelerating growth Stabilizing financing market margins Smaller transactions funded by local banks Negative impact of shale gas in US on electricity prices Wind in Europe - Onshore and offshore Onshore Wind - 2300 MW installed capacity in The Netherlands (2013) • Very competitive market • Continued cost decreases • Financial pressure on large European turbine suppliers • Nuclear pullbacks by European countries put weight behind renewable energy targets • Recently growth mostly driven by China • Outlook • Markets & Trends

  3. Wind developments in The Netherlands Dutch Government’s objective of generating 14% of the country’s energy from renewables by 2020 and 16% by 2023. Scaling up offshore wind power to 4450 MW, operational in 2023. The existing and planned offshore wind power capacity comes to a total of some 1000 MW. In addition to this, a total of 3450 MW will be contracted for by means of phased procurement procedures commencing in 2015 and increasing as follows: 450 MW (2015), 600 MW (2016), 700 MW (2017), 800 MW (2018), and 900 MW (2019). In the case of onshore wind power, there will be investment within the frameworks agreed with the provinces in order to achieve 6000 MW by 2020. Wind farm investors will introduce a participation model enabling local residents to participate actively in the planning and operation of wind farms. According to the EIB, the various forms of direct investment arising from the measures allowed for in the Dutch Energy Agreement will amount to an estimated EUR 13 bln to almost EUR 18 bln between 2013 and 2020. These investments will play a significant role in achieving the agreement’s objective, i.e. sustainable growth for the Netherlands, and will also provide the necessary short-term employment incentives in today’s difficult economic circumstances.

  4. Levelised cost of different power technologies (USD/MWh) • Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Levelised cost of selected power technologies H1 2014 (USD/MWh) Note: LCOEs for coal and CCGTs in Europe and Australia assume a carbon price of $20/t. No carbon prices are assumed for China and the US.

  5. Deals in the Netherlands Gemini – 600 MW offshore wind Characteristics/issues: due to deal size challenging to collect debt and equity portion NOP Agro – 195 MW onshore wind Characteristics/issues: sponsor with limited equity & PF experience, relatively new turbine (7.5MW) Westermeerwind – 144 MW offshore / lakeshore wind Characteristics/issues: sponsor with limited equity & PF experience, participation structure Zuidwester – 90 MW onshore wind Characteristics/issues: Developed by Utility company Pipeline: Tender Capacity (MW) Operation (year) 2015 450 2019 2016 600 2020 2017 700 2021 2018 800 2022 2019 900 2023 4 Projects in total > 1 GW

  6. Large versus smaller wind project • Strong and experienced EPC/O&M party that gives enough comfort and if possible providing completion guarantees • Good project management important • Usually bilateral loan (smaller documentation and mainly in Dutch language) • More simple structure • Long-term contracts • Stable subsidy regime • Limited interface risks • Due diligence light • Start to finish to reach financial close in short term • Strong equity and EPC/O&M party (limit interfaces) • Experienced project management • Structure in general more complex • Long-term contracts with acceptable and credit worthy parties (PPA, EPC, O&M) • Stable subsidy regime • Sufficient contingencies • Participation model in The Netherlands requirement under the Energy Agreement, but not always easy to implement • Extensive due diligence phase required • Strong group of reliable and experienced advisors • Start to finish to reach financial close takes medium to long-term • Characteristics of large project • Characteristics of smaller project

  7. NOP Agrowind EPC Contractor EPK Contractor PPA Offtaker Rabobank Role in NOP Agrowind • Enercon builds the project under a EUR 340m contract. Construction started in 2013 and is expected to finish in september 2016 • 26 Enercon turbines of the E-126 7.5MW type. This is the largest turbine being produced worldwide • For Enercon, NOP Agrwind is a flagship project, being the largest project sporting E-126’s • Enercon provides operations and maintenance services to the project over a lifetime of 15 years after completion • Enercon guarantees a minimum availability of 97%. This guarantee is uncapped (unlike similar contracts offered by competitors) • Eneco provides a long term 15 year PPA contract. The contract provides a mechanism to to protect against low market prices • MLA, arranger of the EUR 200m commercial senior facilities together with KfW IPEX (EIB also lends EUR 150m) • Sole VAT lender, EUR 12m VAT facility • Lender to sponsors (other than Enercon) to enable equity injection (by Rabobank Noordoostpolder-Urk) • Hedge coordinator for the EUR 265m swap • Rabobank’s long-standing relationship with the sponsors meant a leading role in the structuring of the transaction Equity • Approximately 30 local farmers (and landowners) are shareholders in the project. They have been joining forces over the last years to jointly develop the NOP Agrowind project as part of the WindparkNoordoostpolder

  8. Key success factors NOP Agrowind • Strong EPC / O&M contract (1 EPC) with strong party Enercon and high commitment • Strong PPA and stable subsidy scheme • High requirements to project management and best in class advisors (legal, financial, technical) • Flexible sponsor group willing to cooperate to get the deal done • Experienced banking group (KfW, EIB and Rabobank), including good cooperation • Result: transaction closed within 1 year

  9. Conclusions • Onshore wind becomes a commodity and good asset class • Credit margins are competitive • Promising market, good returns compared to the risks in both the onshore and offshore sector • The renewable energy targets as mentioned in the Energy Agreement are ambitious, but the recent large deals (> 1 GW) help to achieve the target of 14% 2020. • New parties are entering the market as the (offshore) wind market is becoming more mature. New parties like pension funds, insurance companies, Japanese investors, Middle East and US investors and country linked investment funds

  10. Questions

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