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Same-Day Wind Variability Forecasts

Same-Day Wind Variability Forecasts. Christopher J. Anderson Wednesday, June 6 ISU Wind REU. Wind Intermittency. One-month average wind (black line) wind speed daily cycle has smooth variation. However, many days (color lines) contain abrupt 1- to 3-hour changes.

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Same-Day Wind Variability Forecasts

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  1. Same-Day Wind Variability Forecasts Christopher J. Anderson Wednesday, June 6 ISU Wind REU

  2. Wind Intermittency • One-month average wind (black line) wind speed daily cycle has smooth variation. • However, many days (color lines) contain abrupt 1- to 3-hour changes. • A “ramp event” is a large increase or decrease in energy in a short time. • Most problematic is the short excursions below the zero production threshold. Zero Production Threshold “Ramp Event”

  3. How is Wind Intermittency Managed? • Reserve energy within the grid. • Typical reserve capacities are 5-10% of peak production, which is generally not enough to handle a 2- to 3-hr dip in wind speed. • Turn on a fossil fuel source. • Might take too long for coal to heat up and spin turbines at the needed capacity level. • Purchase energy on the market. • Very pricey! But, sometimes necessary if day-ahead posting is not going to be met. Compare cost of penalty to market price. • Brown outs. • Each management option is expensive! And, it requires additional GHG offsets at other times or by other means.

  4. The Future of Managing Wind Intermittency • Expanding storage capacity for wind energy. • “It doesn’t rain every day but yet water is efficiently provided to billions of inhabitants on the planet.” • Large battery farms (Gamesa, Xcel). • Underground wind pressure. • Use wind energy to produce fuel. • Short-term forecasting for grid optimization. • Draw from several regionally distributed farms. For example, draw from Wyoming when Iowa has a downturn. • Fast and numerous transmission lines.

  5. Forecasting Two Causes of Wind Intermittency • Thunderstorms • Low Level Jet

  6. Causes of Wind Intermittency:Thunderstorms

  7. Causes of Wind Intermittency:Thunderstorms

  8. Causes of Wind Intermittency:Low Level Jet • Low level jets occur at night. Wind shear and stability combinations result in sporadic bursts of higher wind speed.

  9. Terrain Variations of 50-100m Impact LLJ Wind Spatial Variability

  10. WRF 2-km Simulation of Spatial/Vertical Hourly Wind Variation for LLJ 2011 July 1 110 m AGL 80 m AGL 50 m AGL 7 pm 10 pm 1 am

  11. 1-hr Average 80 m Wind Speed (m s-1) 10 PM July 1 4 AM July 1 3 PM June 30

  12. Hourly Wind Variation of LLJ is Impacted by Turbines within the Wind Farm LLJ Max ~ 16 m/s And these are “typical” midwestern conditions! LLJ Max ~ 12 m/s Turbine Wake Rhodes, Aitken, Lundquist, 2010, 2011 Julie.Lundquist@colorado.edu

  13. Wind Predictability and Forecast Strategies

  14. DOE-NOAA-Private Sector Wind Forecast Improvement Project • Implement a new networt capable of constant monitoring of wind profile across a region. (squares, circles, stars, arrows) • Use a 3-km grid for a weather forecast model. • Every hour, use wind network measurements as a starting condition for 15-hour 3-km weather forecast. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/psd3/wfip/

  15. 2-hr Thunderstorm Forecast

  16. 2-hr Thunderstorm Forecast

  17. 15-hr Wind Profile Forecast

  18. The Future of Managing Wind Intermittency • Expanding storage capacity for wind energy is under development. • Short-term forecasting for grid optimization is on the way as early returns from WFIP are promising. • More forecast vendors coming into existence. • Results will provide Congress with guidance on necessary measurement system investments.

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