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San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District. Air Quality Issues New State Implementation Plan Seyed Sadredin Executive Director/APCO. Valley’s challenges are unmatched by any other region in the nation. Valley’s geography and meteorology are ideal for forming and trapping smog.
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San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District Air Quality IssuesNew State Implementation PlanSeyed SadredinExecutive Director/APCO
Valley’s challenges are unmatched by any other region in the nation. • Valley’s geography and meteorology are ideal for forming and trapping smog.
Much progress has been made, but the remaining challenges are daunting
How much more reductions is needed for 8-hr ozone attainment? • An additional 60% reductions in emissions needed to meet the new smog standard • 480 tons per day of reductions are needed
Emissions Inventory Stationary Sources Mobile Sources Light Duty Vehicles Diesel Trucks Agriculture 60% Reduction in Emissions:How Difficult? “Carrying Capacity”
2007 Ozone Plan4-Faceted Control Strategy • Regulatory component (District rules) • Incentive-based strategies • Alternative compliance • Local, state, and federal sources/partnerships
Current District Control Measures • 41 Stationary & area sourcemeasures Current rulemaking projects (10) – affecting 20 current rules, Proposed CMs (17), Further Study CMs (14) • 7 Mobile & Indirect Measures: Trip Reduction, Accelerated Fleet Rule, ISR Enhancement, Green Contracting, Expanded Spare the Air, Heat Island Mitigation, Alternative Energy & Energy Conservation • Incentive Programs- for faster fleet turnover of diesel trucks, off-road equipment, farm equipment, light/medium duty vehicles)
Reductions from Control Measures • New reductions from recent District rules (not yet in inventory) = 72 tons/day by 2012 • Reductions from new District rules & programs = 46 tons/day by 2012 • Reductions from state & federal mobile source emissions = 80 tons/day by 2014 • Reductions from known District incentive funding = 12 tons/day by 2012
2012 Attainment “Gap” 300 t/d Carrying Capacities derived from ARB photochemical modeling
Regulations vs. Incentives 2012 Attainment $7.5 Billion Incentives 2020 Attainment $2.9 Billion Incentives 2023 Attainment Recent Local Rules New Local Regulations Fleet Turnover New State Measures Incentives $2.1 Billion Incentives
Incentives Strategy • “Air Quality Empowerment Zones” • Tax incentives for plan/fleet modernization • Fair share of air quality funds from the state transportation bond • $200 million/year cash incentives for 10-12 year (50/50 state and federal match)
When Will the Valley Attain? • Attainment is possible with this Plan • Attainment will “phase in” over time • Some areas are currently in attainment • Others will attain as emissions are reduced • Attainment in Parlier/Edison… • Requires 35%-40% reduction from 2012 baseline • Means attainment for all SJV metro areas • Will be achieved by 2019 with proposed controls • Over 90% of the Valley population will be in attainment by 2019 • Arvin’s low carrying capacity defines the strategy
Stockton Modesto Tracy Turlock Merced Madera Clovis Ash Mtn. Fresno Parlier Lookout Pt. Lower Kaweah Hanford Visalia 2005 3-yr Avg of 4th highest measurement Shafter Oildale/ Bakersfield Edison Arvin Maricopa
Stockton Modesto Tracy Turlock Merced Madera Clovis Ash Mtn. Fresno Parlier Lookout Pt. Lower Kaweah Hanford Visalia 2012 w/Proposed Controls Shafter Oildale/ Bakersfield Edison Arvin Maricopa
Stockton Modesto Tracy Turlock Merced Madera Clovis Ash Mtn. Fresno Parlier Lookout Pt. Lower Kaweah Hanford Visalia 2014 w/Proposed Controls Shafter Oildale/ Bakersfield Edison Arvin Maricopa
Stockton Modesto Tracy Turlock Merced Madera Clovis Ash Mtn. Fresno Parlier Lookout Pt. Lower Kaweah Hanford Visalia 2019 w/Proposed Controls Shafter Oildale/ Bakersfield Edison Arvin Maricopa