Buenos Aires, November 2006

1. 4th International Southern Ocean Region Panel Meeting Buenos Aires, November 2006

2. Terms of Reference The Terms of Reference of the CLIVAR/CliC/SCAR Southern Ocean Implementation Panel are: 1. To design astrategy to assess climate variability andpredictabilityof the coupled ocean-atmosphere-ice system in the Southern Ocean region. 2. To develop and refine an implementation plan for the Southern Ocean region which defines the process studies, sustained observations, and model experimentsneeded to meet the objectives of CLIVAR, CliC and SCAR. 3. To work in concert with relevant CLIVAR panels (e.g. regional panels, numerical experimentation groups), ACSYS/CliC Panels (DMIP, OPP, NEG) and other groups (e.g. Ocean Observation Panel for Climate, Argo Science Team) to integrate Southern Ocean observations with those in neighboring regions to ensure the objectives of CLIVAR/CliC/SCAR are met and resources are used efficiently. 4. Toenhance interaction between the meteorology, oceanography, cryosphere, biogeochemistry and paleoclimate communities with an interest in the climate variability of the Southern Ocean region. 5. To serve as a forum for the discussion and communication of scientific advances in the understanding of climate variability and change in the Southern Ocean region. 6. To work with the CLIVAR, CliC and SCAR data systems on issues related to distribution and archiving of Southern Ocean observations. 7. To advise the CLIVAR, ACSYS/CliC and SCAR SSGs on progress achieved towards implementation.

3. WCRP Strategic Framework • Move from physics-only to Earth-System models (with IGBP) • Prediction across all timescales “seamless prediction”. • Develop sustained climate observing system with GCOS, GEOSS…???? • Integration of models and data • Use of data assimilation to initialize models over widest range of climate prediction timescales possible • Synthesis through reanalysis (atmosphere, ocean, coupled)

4. Performance metrics  Improvements in: 1. the spectral character (i.e. spectral power, frequency) and 2. predictability of ISO, seasonal, interannual, and decadal variability in coupled models  Number of global observation deployments and transition of process study and research observations to operational status (e.g.TAO)  Reduction of uncertainty in climate models, bias reduction, and the number of new parameterizations incorporated into operational models (e.g. CPT on marine stratus, VOCALS)  Global and regional data products

5. OOPC2SOPanel Meteorology: improve the justification for sustained measurements in terms of rainfall etc. Quantify improvements. Sea-ice advection index should be defined. Cannot track drift through summer properly yet? (Drinkwater?) Cryosphere component of IPCC. Call for studies to address intercomparisons and problems with measures of sea-ice concentration. Transport sites need further support, eg via definitition (and motivation) of a climate index or projection onto known ones. (all) Subantarctic islands time-series stations and how they can complement ocean sites. Altimetry obs down after 2007? Produce NCEP-ECMWF rms and NCEP vs QuickScat rms SLP to show impact of missing data. Rossow net radiation globally shows geographic steps representing periods when satellites changed or changed position. Fluxes in ERA40 worse than ERA 15.

6. Panel Aims 1. To design astrategy to assess climate variability andpredictabilityof the coupled ocean-atmosphere-ice system in the Southern Ocean region. 2. To develop and refine an implementation plan for the Southern Ocean region which defines the process studies, sustained observations, and model experiments IPCC statement for the role of the SO region in climate Identification of highest priority science questions Identify gaps in the ocean, met and cryo observing system. The way forward?

7. Avoiding redundancy… SASOCS • A synthesis of the last 10,000-1000 years of climate focus on the state of understanding of changes in climate over the last 50-200+ years. • Emphases on changes in atmospheric temperature, ice sheet surface mass balance, atmospheric circulation, atmospheric chemistry, ocean temperature and salinity, ocean circulation, sea ice and ice shelves, and glacier recession (Antarctic Peninsula, sub-Antarctic, South America, and New Zealand) • A description of model estimates for the next 100 years.

8. Gaps in ocean observing systemSEaOSSouthern Elephant seals as oceanographic samplers SEaOS collected data (2003-5) is indicated in orange - samples sea-ice zone Part of a new observing system? http://biology.st-andrews.ac.uk/seaos/results_oceano.htm

9. Gaps in atmosphere observing system READER (REference Antarctic Data for Environmental Research) is a project of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR http://www.scar.org/) and has the goal of creating a high quality, long term dataset of mean surface and upper air meteorological measurements from in-situ Antarctic observing systems. Boundary layer obs?

10. Gaps in cryophere observing system • 1. From CliC Observations and Data section of Implementation Plan: • Sparse and are concentrated in coastal and valley locations. • Station networks have declined and continue to decline in most of these regions. • Enhanced observations and rescue of historical data; remotely sensed imagery • 2. A new proposal for a Southern Ice Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (SIOMIP) Who?

11. Panel Aims 1. To design astrategy to assess climate variability andpredictabilityof the coupled ocean-atmosphere-ice system in the Southern Ocean region. 2. To develop and refine an implementation plan for the Southern Ocean region which defines the process studies, sustained observations, and model experiments • Assess IPCC and other model runs • Identify highest priority science questions • Gaps in the ocean, met and cryo observing system. • How? • High latitude transport processes: tracers, eddies, heat and water fluxes? • Identify SO region indices • Air-Sea-Ice Process Study priorities • Working groups? (e.g. Annular modes at high latitudes)

12. Day 1- Tuesday 14th 8.45-9.15 Welcome (local sponsors of meeting) 9.15-9.30 Introduction (Kevin Speer, Ian Renfrew, Mike Sparrow) 9.30-9.55 Report from CLIVAR SSG (Doug Martinson) 9.55-10.10 Report from CliC SSG (Ian Renfrew) 10.10-10.30 ICPO issues (Mike Sparrow) 10.30-11.00 Tea/Coffee 11.00-11.30 Relationship with SCAR/SCOR Oceanography Expert Group including SOOS (Eberhard Fahrbach) 11.30-11.55 OOPC updates and links to panel (Yasu Fukumachi) 11.55-12.30 Links between ACC fronts and atmospheric variability (Kevin Speer) 12.30-13.00 Summary and Discussion of Indices in the Southern Ocean Region - revisited on Wednesday (Kevin Speer to lead) 13.00-14.30 Lunch 14.30-16.00 IPCC models in Southern Ocean region (Hugues Goosse, Claudio Menendez, input from Dave Thompson) • Are the key underlying physical mechanisms plausibly represented in the models? • Role of SO panel, other modeling projects (ocean, atmosphere, coupled?) 16.00-16.30 Tea/Coffee 16.30-17.10 Southern ocean - ice-shelf interaction from an observations and modeling viewpoint (Dave Holland) 17.10-17.30 Discussion

13. Day 2- Wednesday 15th 8.45-8.55 Day’s aims etc. 8.55-9.35 Regional oceanﾊmodeling and/or regional coupled modeling (Karen Assmann, Dave Holland) 9.35-9.50 Discussion 9.50-10.30 Sea-ice and glacial melt freshwater and heat flux (Doug Martinson) 10.30-11.00 Tea/Coffee 11.00-12.00 Update on CASO and IPY (Steve Rintoul, Alex Orsi) 12.00-13.00 Met. Observations (Ian Renfrew) 13.00-14.30 Lunch14.30-15.15 Sustained hydro Obs (Sabrina Speich) 15.15-16.00 Transport monitoring (Weddell, Ross) (Steve Rintoul, Alberto Naveira, Alex Orsi) 16.00-16.30 Tea/Coffee 16.30-17.30 Panel’s role in producing or assessing indices, from data and models (continued from Tuesday).

14. Day 3- Thursday 16th (am) 8.30-8.45 Introduction & Welcome 8.45-9.15 "South Atlantic meridional heat flux" (Alberto Piola) 9.15-9.45 "Climate variability in South America: Influence of the Southern Oceans" (Carolina Vera) 9.45-10.15 "SMN Scientific Activities in Antarctic and Subantarctic regions" (Osvaldo Barturen) 10.15-10.45 Coffee/Tea 10.45-11.15 "Antarctic sea ice and climate variability over South America" (Rosa Hilda Compagnucci & Sandra Barreira) 11.15-11.45 "The role of the Weddell Sea in the global CO2 sink" (Alejandro Bianchi) 11.45-12.15 "The role of different phytoplankton groups on the CO2 dynamics in the South-Western Atlantic Ocean" (Irene Schloss) 12.15-12.45 "Glacio-climatic investigations carried out by IAA in southern Patagonia and Antarctic Peninsula" (Pedro Skvarca) 12.45-13.15 "The biological contribution to the atmosphere-ocean-bottom CO2 fluxes: Myth or reality" (Gustavo Ferreyra & Serge Demers)

15. Day 3- Thursday 16th (pm)SO panel meeting continued… 13.15-14.30 Lunch 14.30-15.15 Future CLIVAR-related process studies (Kevin Speer) 15.15-16.00 Model/data assimilation and GSOP (Alberto Naveira) 16.00-16.30 Tea/Coffee 16.30-17.00 Update on satellite Observations (Sabrina Speich to lead?) 17.00-18.00 Regional atmospheric reanalysis (Ian Renfrew, Kevin Speer)- - Validation and assessment of the quality of air-sea flux products in the SO region? - Does this serve a climate process study goal? - Are there key processes resolved only by reanalysis?

16. Day 4- Friday 17th 8.45-8.55 Day’s aims etc. 8.55-9.30 Final discussion on panel's role. Final comments etc. 9.30-10.30 End of meeting actions, document options, book concept,indices article, IPCC relevant statement, for role of SO in climate etc. 10.30-11.00 Tea/Coffee Meeting end.