US CLIVAR Process Study & Model Improvement Panel (PSMIP)

1. US CLIVAR Process Study & Model Improvement Panel (PSMIP) Meghan Cronin, co-chair (NOAA - PMEL) Raffaele Ferrari (MIT) Jim Hack, co-chair (NCAR) Dick Johnson (Colorado State University) Terry Joyce (WHOI) Bill Large (NCAR) Sonya Legg (Princeton) Hua Lu Pan (NOAA - NCEP) Paul Schopf, ex-co-chair (GMU/COLA) Ken Sperber (Lawrence Livermore) S.-P. Xie (University of Hawaii)

2. U.S. CLIVAR Process Study & Model Improvement Panel (PSMIP) Mission: Research on underlying uncertainties in models and physics to improve the delivery of climate science.

3. US CLIVAR Process Study & Model Improvement Panel (PSMIP) Goal 1: Reduce major systematic errors and biases in GCMs used for climate variability prediction and climate change projection …Established examples include: representation of stratocumulus, eastern ocean boundary SST, excessive cold tongue, double ITCZ, weak tropical variability, storm track placement and variations, and mid-latitude air-sea interaction. Annual mean precipitation from NCAR CCSM3 relative to GPCP (observed precip). Courtesy J. Hack.

4. CLIMODE KESS NAME Ocean-Land-Atm Studies AMI Ocean Dynamics, Mixing Studies TACE EPIC PUMP Atmospheric Dynamics, Clouds, Radiation INSTANT VOCALS Enhanced Monitoring SALLJ DIMES Goal 2: Use process studies to quantify climatically important processes… US CLIVAR Process Studies

5. CLIMODE KESS NAME Ocean-Land-Atm Studies AMI Ocean Dynamics, Mixing Studies TACE EPIC PUMP Atmospheric Dynamics, Clouds, Radiation INSTANT VOCALS Enhanced Monitoring SALLJ DIMES Goal 2: Use process studies to quantify climatically important processes and to provide guidance for extending and improving long-term in situ and satellite observation. US CLIVAR Process Studies

6. CLIMODE KESS NAME Ocean-Land-Atm Studies AMI Ocean Dynamics, Mixing Studies TACE EPIC PUMP Atmospheric Dynamics, Clouds, Radiation INSTANT VOCALS Enhanced Monitoring SALLJ DIMES Goal 3: Ensure that process studies lead to climate model improvements US CLIVAR Process Studies That may involve: consultation on process study design, recommendation for supplemental modeling and/or field activities, fostering the development of improved parameterizations, and guidance for climate process teams.

7. Field Campaign Plans Ocean-Atm-Land Other WCRP Programs U.S. CLIVAR • International CLIVAR • 50+ Countries • Regional Panels Other Programs Carbon Marine Ecosystems NSF NOAA NASA Goal 4: Facilitate collaborations with other national and international partnersUS CLIVAR PSMI Panel provides vital review & feedback for process studies

8. IAG question #2.    Please provide a brief description of the panel's activities during the past year (August 2005-July 2006): •     Panel Meetings & teleconferences • Sep-Oct 2005, Jan 2006, Apr-May 2006: substantial email traffic • Jan 2006: Co-chairs and several panel members met at AMS in preparation for Townhall • 1 June 2006: teleconference • Interactions with other US CLIVAR Panels, WGs, CPTs, as well as non-CLIVAR committees, panels, and groups • Sep 2005: Tropical Bias Meeting • Sep 2005: KESS PI Workshop • Oct 2005: GFDL presentation to Ants Leetma • Jan 2006: AMS Townhall • Feb 2006: Ocean Model Metrics Workshop • Jun 2006: Two-week ASP colloquium on “Art of Climate Modeling” (over 30 graduate students attended)

9. IAG question #2.    Please provide a brief description of the panel's activities during the past year (August 2005-July 2006): •     Interactions with program managers from NASA, NOAA, NSF, and DOE; e.g. recommendations or input provided to agency program officials • Input on research priorities to NOAA’s CVP program in Dec 2005 • Participation in US CLIVAR briefing to NOAA’s CP Office in Jan 2006 • Assessments of planned and proposed process studies: VOCALS, PUMP, and DIMES

10. IAG question #3.    What science, coordination, and/or planning activities, e.g., scientific workshops; special sessions at AGU/AMS meetings; focused planning workshops; have been catalyzed or organized by your panel? What outcomes of these activities could be promoted to the agencies as noteworthy? to the climate research community?

11. PSMIP Action Items What actions (coordinate, recommend, guide & lead, promote) has the Panel decided to undertake. Please list by goal. • Goal 1. Reduce major systematic errors and biases and uncertainties in GCMs used for climate variability prediction and climate change projection • Attend Tropical Bias Meeting (Schopf, Large, Pan,), co-sponsor TB Workshop (Legler), Sept 2005 • Initiate TB working group, develop TOR, resource request (Schopf, Large, Sperber, Pan,…) Formal WG not needed • Initiate Subseasonal working group, develop TOR, resource request (Waliser) • Review Process Studies Sci&Impl plans, SSC review & responses; recommend action for progressing (VOCALS: Johnson, PUMP: Xie, AMI: Hack, DIMES: Ferrari) by Fall 2005; collect & distribute info (Cronin) by Sep 2005 Assessments sent to IAG 12/05, 2/06, 6/06 • Develop plans for reviewing CPTs (Legg, Ferrari) • Encourage assessment of IPCC model errors through analysis of CMEP results and develop strategy for responding to results (Legg)

12. PSMIP Action Items What actions (coordinate, recommend, guide & lead, promote) has the Panel decided to undertake. Please list by goal. • Goal 2: Use process studies to quantify climatically important processes and to provide guidance for extending long-term in situ and satellite observations • Compile feedback for OceanSITES group (all) by Feb 2006 • Compile assessments of satellite and remote sensing products (all) by Summit 2006 • Establish connection with NASA and NPOESS to enhance opportunities for constructive observing system design Need to work jointly with POS

13. PSMIP Action Items What actions (coordinate, recommend, guide & lead, promote) has the Panel decided to undertake. Please list by goal. • Goal 3:Ensure that process studies lead to climate model improvements • CPT review (Legg, Ferrari) by Fall 2005 • Review modeling activity in funded process studies (EPIC, KESS: Xie, Cronin; CLIMODE: Xie, Joyce; NAME, MESA: Johnson, Sperber) by Summit2006 • Compile master list of climatologically important process studies and integrated data sets that can be used for model development activities (Legg, Cronin) by Summit2006 Started. Needs scoping. • Develop strategy for facilitating infrastructure, especially manpower resources, for model development activities (Large, Pan, Schopf, Hack, Legg,…) by Summit2006 To be discussed at breakout

14. PSMIP Action Items What actions (coordinate, recommend, guide & lead, promote) has the Panel decided to undertake. Please list by goal. • Goal 4: Facilitate collaborations with other national and international partners such as international CLIVAR, GEWEX, OCCC • Meet with IAG for planning PSMIP activities (Schopf, Cronin) by Feb 2006 Schopf met with IAG in Jan 2006 • Participate in AMS Town Hall Meeting (Cronin, Schopf) Jan 2006 • Contribute text to BAMS article on US CLIVAR PSMIP goals and activities (Cronin, Schopf et al) by Spring 2006 • Determine potential for collaboration/coordination of process studies (OCCC: Cronin, Joyce, GEWEX: Sperber) by Fall 2005 • Initiate joint CLIVAR/GEWEX WG on Diurnal Cycle of Convection, develop TOR, request for resources (Sperber) by Summit2006 On hold

15. Preview main topics/issues that will be addressed during your Panel meetings.

16. Goal 3: Ensure that process studies lead to climate model improvements • US CLIVAR Process Study & Model Improvement Panel’s Proposed “Best Practice” for Process Studies: • Entrain Modelers during the planning stage • Encourage broad use of the data • Create synthesis data sets that can be used as benchmarks for assessing and validating models

17. IAG question #6.    What concerns does your Panel have about its activities and its role in US CLIVAR? Many members are directly involved in the process studies that are being assessed by the panel. There is concern that the panel dynamics will become politicized. Strategy: • All members declare conflicts of interest. • Point person should not have conflict of interest. • Broad panel discussion There is concern that the broader community is not being fully engaged in CLIVAR and the goals and activities of the Process Study and Model Improvement panel. Strategy: …

18. How to Become Involved • US CLIVAR activities range in size (individual projects, working groups, process studies, climate process teams, …) • Practice Best Practices • PSMIP provides vital review & feedback for large process studies • Contact panel Presented at Jan 2006 AMS Townhall

19. IAG question #4.    What would your panel consider to be its greatest success to date?

20. Processes related to biases… in the “stratus deck” region of the eastern basin. Observed Observed ABL underestimated & cloud too thin in GCMs. What is relationship to drizzle & aerosols? From Bretherton et al (2004) SST anomalies from the new GFDL coupled model for IPCC (CM2).From Wittenberg, et al (In Press)

21. Processes related to the biases… in the equatorial “cold tongue” region. Forced OGCMs (GFDL OM3 & NCAR POP) have reasonable ENSO SST but significant problems with subsurface ENSO temperature anomalies. Suggests incorrect mixing & upwelling. Courtesy Wittenberg, Kessler. SST anomalies from the new GFDL coupled model for IPCC (CM2). From Wittenberg et al (In Press).