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Software Estimation

Software Estimation. Demystifying the Black Art by Steve McConnell Presented by Lee Bennett, PMP. 1 of 4. 1 of 4. Definition of Estimating. DeMarco

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Software Estimation

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  1. Software Estimation Demystifying the Black Art by Steve McConnell Presented by Lee Bennett, PMP 1 of 4 1 of 4

  2. Definition of Estimating • DeMarco • [The common definition of an estimate is] “the most optimistic prediction that has a non-zero probability of coming true.” …the earliest date by which you can’t prove you won’t be finished. • McConnell • … provides a clear enough view of the project to allow … good decisions about how to control the project to hit its targets.

  3. Software Estimation • Author: Steve McConnell • Code Complete (1993, 2004) • Rapid Application Development (1996) • Software Project Survival Guide (1998)

  4. Cone of Uncertainty

  5. Estimating Techniques • T Shirt sizing • Software Estimation tools • Wideband Delphi • Story Points

  6. T Shirt Sizing • Technique • Estimate S/M/L Business Value • Estimate S/M/L Development Cost • Go with the low hanging fruit • Applicability • Very early in project • Results • Doesn’t actually produce an estimate • Eliminates the need to estimate some cases

  7. Estimation Tools • Technique • Simulation • Probability analysis • www.construx.com • Applicability • Early to middle for medium to large projects • Results • Can produce highly accurate results*

  8. Wideband Delphi • Technique • A structured group estimating technique • Basis of Agiletek’s estimating • Anonymous estimates • Applicability • Early in medium to large projects • Results • 40% improvement over initial group average • Meeting time is expensive

  9. Story Points • Technique • Give each story a size estimate from the Fibonacci sequence (1,2,3,5,8,13…) • Deliver some stories in an N week iteration • Velocity = [Story Points delivered] / N weeks • Duration = [Total Story Points] / Velocity • Applicability • Early to Middle stage • Example • http://www.planningpoker.com/

  10. Project Planning and Control Estimating is a skill of project planning. Planning determines appropriate Commitments. Project Controls are needed to help meet Commitments.

  11. Questions ???

  12. Estimating Concepts • Use multiple estimating techniques • Estimate by analogy, top down • Estimate by components, bottom up • Estimate size first • Scheduling estimates only after effort estimate is in place

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