1 . FY12-13 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page date: 7 August 2012

1. 05 1. FY12-13 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Pagedate: 7 August 2012 Title: GOES Biomass Burning Algorithm and Application Improvements Status: Progress Report (started 1 July 2012) Project Leads: Chris Schmidt/CIMSS/chris.schmidt@ssec.wisc.edu Other Participants: • Mark Ruminski /NOAA/NESDIS (HMS point of contact) • Jason Brunner/CIMSS, Jay Hoffman/CIMSS, Elaine Prins/consultant to CIMSS • Bob Rabin/NOAA/NSSL, Phillip Bothwell/NOAA/SPC, Chris Siewert/SPC/CIMMS • User Community includes: ShobhaKondragunta (NOAA/NESDIS/STAR), NRL-Monterey, FNMOC, EPA, USFS, hazards monitoring/assessments, global climate change modeling, trace gas/aerosol transport modelers, transportation, air quality agencies, land-use land cover change analyses

2. 2. Project Summary • Research and develop techniques to reduce false alarms in WF_ABBA data, an issue that has been a challenge for the Hazard Mapping System operators. • Wrap-up the development of the “fire potential” product that began development under the previous two year GIMPAP funding. Developed in collaboration with by collaborating with Dr R. Rabin (NOAA/NSSL) and Dr. P. Bothwell (NOAA/NWS, Storm Prediction Center), the product utilizes the Version 6.5 WF_ABBA database to create a climatology of wildfires from the WF_ABBA data and to examine whether that data could be used in conjunction with other ancillary information to create a “fire potential” product. • Create WF_ABBA support for Korea’s COMS and INSAT-3D as part of the geostationary fire monitoring network. • Continue to work with GEOSS, GTOS GOFC/GOLD, CEOS, and CGMS to foster the development and implementation of a global geostationary fire monitoring network with international involvement. • Support improved product utilization by supporting integration of the WF_ABBA into smoke and aerosol forecasting efforts.

3. 3. Motivation / Justification • Supports NOAA Mission Goal(s): Climate, Weather and Water, Commerce and Transportation • The Hazard Mapping System has been a primary user of the WF_ABBA for almost a decade, and removal of false alarms is an important upgrade to make as data frequency has increased from every half hour over CONUS to every 15 minutes, and occassionally more frequently, with the implementation of WF_ABBA 6.5. The traditional temporal filtering is less successful than it was with the less frequent data. Reducing false alarms will allow HMS operators to work more efficiently. This task makes up the bulk of the project effort. • The fire potential product aims to improve predictions of fire potential for a 24-48 hour time frame. If proven successful, the fire potential product will be of use to NSSL’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) forecasters and others. Development of this product has occurred over the last two years and would benefit from another year prior to making a decision about transition to an operational site, such as at NSSL. A prior GIMPAP project was anticipating completing this project in two years. $10k of the FY2012 budget is expected to be spent on completing this task. • SPSRB requirements have for several years now called for supporting a global geostationary fire detection constellation, and NESDIS Operations produces WF_ABBA data from MTSAT and Meteosat SEVIRI data. SPSRB requirement 0405-7 “Global geostationary Fire Monitoring System” as well as the GEO 2006 Work Plan (DI-06-13, DI-06-09) are the original requirements. Additionally, support for the global constellation goes beyond specific support for NESDIS. CIMSS proposes to use GIMPAP funds to support improved product utilization by supporting integration of the WF_ABBA into smoke and aerosol forecasting efforts and collaborating with international entities. This is in support of U.S. and international efforts (IGOS GOFC/GOLD, CGMS, CEOS Constellation Concept). • International cooperation has been a part of WF_ABBA GIMPAP proposals as the global constellation has come online. Korea’s COMS and India’s INSAT-3D are expected to come online during the duration of this project, barring further delays outside of our control. Members of the user community are interested in coverage of Asia, which would fill holes in the global coverage. There is also discussion of bringing Russia’s Elektro-N1 Imager data into NESDIS, which is also capable of fire detection. There is pending SPSRB discussion of an Elektro-N1 requirement. • An important driver behind using one algorithm for the international constellation is to enable more reliable comparison of trends from different satellites, with the goal of monitoring biomass burning, and as a result emissions, around the globe. Partners in South Africa have been using the Met-9 WF_ABBA data and comparing it to other satellite sources and their own ground data, and finding the WF_ABBA to be robust and useful. They have requested that we find ways to further reduce product latency for data they pull from NESDIS. • Supporting the global geostationary constellation is a low cost, high benefit effort.

4. 4. Methodology (1) • Several techniques will be explored to reduce false alarms, including but not limited to: • Improved temporal filtering techniques to address higher-frequency data • Application of WF_ABBA climatology developed under previous GIMPAP project to help identify problem areas • Use of feedback from HMS operators who provide identification of specific problem areas and cases • Use of additional static datasets Reduction of false alarms is the primary task for this project. • The WF_ABBA climatology and ancillary datasets are used to develop the “fire potential” product. That product aims to provide some statistical predictive skill for fire occurrence above what is available today. The ancillary information includes the following: • Historical fire data detected from GOES WF_ABBA Version 6.5 from 1995 to present • Fuel loads products to determine how much biomass is available to burn • NDVI and/or surface wetness products to account for dryness of vegetation • Cloud to Ground Lightning Database • Fosberg Fire Weather Index (a combination of wind speed, moisture content, temperature, and relative humidity). The FFWI relates weather conditions to wildfire behavior. It is produced from model output. • Support for the global constellation and global trend analysis activities require that the distinct monitoring capabilities of each geostationary platform be characterized and addressed as the algorithm is adapted to each one. Trend analyses that result from this work include incorporating fire/metadata mask information available with the global WF_ABBA (version 6.5) and international cal/val studies (such as the work done in South Africa). Existing techniques will be further developed to compare fire statistics from a variety of sensors (GOES Imager, MET SEVIRI, MTSAT JAMI, etc.). CIMSS will continue to incorporate requirements/suggestions made by IGOS GOFC/GOLD Fire Team.

5. 4. Methodology (2) • The global WF_ABBA (version 6.5) includes the addition of FRP and a fire/metadata mask that provides information on processing regions, fire locations, fire confidence, cloud cover, block-out zones, saturated areas, etc. CIMSS will continue to collaborate with the atmospheric modeling community to help them integrate and assimilate this information from a variety of geostationary sensors into aerosol/trace gas transport models. • CIMSS will continue to support international satellite fire monitoring efforts by being actively involved in GEOSS, GTOS GOFC/GOLD, CEOS, and CGMS activities. This includes participation with the GOFC/GOLD Fire Implementation Team and involvement in international planning committees, workshops and technology transfer to global partners in Europe, Africa, Asia, Australia, etc. Currently global geostationary fire monitoring is being considered as a CEOS Constellation Concept. Furthermore the GEO 2006 Work Plan calls for the initiation of “a globally coordinated warning system for fire and monitoring for forest conversion, including the development of improved information products and risk assessment models (DI-06-13)” and expanding “the use of meteorological geostationary satellites for the management of non-weather related hazards (DI-06-09).”

6. 5. Expected Outcomes • False alarms from the WF_ABBA will be substantially reduced. Updated algorithm will be transferred to NESDIS Operations. • Support for the global geostationary constellation will continue to expand with the addition of INSAT-3D and COMS. • Global geostationary fire products will continue to be assimilated into air quality/aerosol transport models in real-time (e.g. NRL/FNMOC NAAPS, INPE CPTEC, etc.). • Provide to NSSL’s Storm Prediction Center forecasters and others the climatology of wildfires from WF_ABBA Version 6.5 data and, if successful, the “fire potential” product. • Participation in international working groups and initiatives (GEO/GEOSS, IGOS GOFC GOLD, CGMS, CEOS) will ensure the successful development, implementation, validation and application of coordinated regional and global operational geostationary fire products. One of the primary goals is foster closer connections to international working groups and inter-agency efforts to gain better insight into the needs of the global user community, to enable better coordination of data sources and products, and to provide input for future missions.

7. 6. First Year - Preliminary Results • “Fire potential” product : it does not appear to have operational potential. Key results were that the Fosberg Fire Weather Index performs very well and WF_ABBA data added little value. A weak relationship between lightning and WF_ABBA detected fires was seen in the southwest and may warrant its own research. • A paper summarizing the “fire potential” product work is in draft form. • Support for Korea’s COMS is being developed with the small amount of data that has been made available this summer. However there is still no plan for a realtime data feed of COMS data to NOAA or SSEC. • A new cause of false alarms has been identified: GOES-13 has shown a time-varying co-registration error between the 4 and 11 micron bands, which reached approximately 0.5-1 pixel this spring. The issue is being evaluated – the ability to account for this in realtime processing may be limited. • Urban areas are producing more false alarms, likely due to the age of the land mask. Initial fix is to exclude pixels within one pixel of an urban area, however an updated mask is likely the preferred fix. • A parallel processing system is being put in place (to be running in August). A second machine will process the latest version of the algorithm in realtime to allow for more direct comparisons between fixes without the need to reprocess.

8. 7. Possible Path to Operations • The algorithm updates for false alarm reduction would be implemented at NESDIS as a PSDI project. • Support for new satellites would be implemented at NESDIS as part of a PSDI project as validated user requests allow.

9. 8. FY13 Milestones • Implement realtime processing support for Korea’s COMS if realtime data feed becomes available • Implement support for India’s INSAT-3D as data becomes available • Winter 2013: Begin testing of false alarm reduction techniques with realtime processing at CIMSS, to be run in parallel with current algorithm. Data will be available to HMS so they can examine it as well. • Winter/Spring 2013: Travel to NESDIS to consult with HMS team. • Spring 2013: Continue development of false alarm detection as examination of realtime testing data continues. • Spring/Summer 2013: Evaluate false alarm reduction updates and submit for PSDI funding to transfer to NESDIS. If available and supported by user requests, include support for additional international geostationary constellation satellites. • Summer/Fall 2013: Finalize algorithm updates. • Ongoing: support for international partners and groups for global geostationary constellation. Ongoing collaborations on assimilation of fires products into air quality and aerosol transport models • Ongoing: Support international fire monitoring initiatives/workshops/requests (GEO/GEOSS, IGOS GOFC/GOLD, CEOS, CGMS) as opportunities/issues arise.

10. 9. Funding Request (K)

11. 10. Spending Plan FY13 • FY13 $80,000 Total Project Budget • Grant to CIMSS- • % FTE - 60k, 0.35 FTE, 0.12 FTE (includes benefits, IT charges, overhead, etc) • Contracts - 15k subcontract to Elaine Prins • Travel - 3k (2 trips: Madison to AGU conference, Madison to DC for collaboration with HMS team) • Publication charge - • Other - 2k (equipment maintenance and replacement) • Federal Travel – • Federal Publication Charges – • Federal Equipment - • Transfers to other agencies – • Other -