1. FY12-13 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page date: 7 August 2012

1. 07 1. FY12-13 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Pagedate: 7 August 2012 Title: Improvements to the Advanced Dvorak Technique Status: New – but continuing work from GIMPAP FY07-09 and 10-11 projects Duration: 2 years Project Leads: Chris Velden, UW-CIMSS, Chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu Tim Olander, UW-CIMSS, Timo@ssec.wisc.edu Other Participants (non-funded on GIMPAP): Chris Hennon, UNC-Asheville Josh Cossuth, FSU Jack Beven, NHC

2. 2. Project Summary The Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) is an algorithm designed to provide objective estimates of hurricane intensity from GOES and other geostationary satellites. Its long-term development has been partially supported by GIMPAP, and the latest algorithm is currently being transitioned through a PSDI effort into NESDIS operations at the Satellite Analysis Branch. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) now routinely accesses the ADT data as part of its hurricane analysis suite of tools. In support of the importance of the ADT in hurricane analysis at the U.S. operational centers, a joint User Request was recently submitted to the NESDIS SPSRB by NHC, CPHC (Central Pacific Hurricane Center), and JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center). The request, Request NO: 1104-0003, Title: “Continue operational transition and upgrade support of the ADT”, was approved by the SPSRB for funding considerations starting in FY12. This GIMPAP project follows the above User Request guidance, and the work planned to enhance the ADT capabilities will (if successful) have an operational transition component proposed upon completion.

3. 3. Motivation / Justification • In the latest evaluations of the ADT by the aforementioned operational Tropical Analysis Centers, one of the primary requests is to extend the applicability of the algorithm to operate on pre-depression systems. These systems are typically the tropical disturbances that warrant an “Invest”, and often have Dvorak T-numbers of 1.0 or 1.5. • The current ADT must “wait” for the first official Center bulletin identifying an invest system as a Tropical Depression, to begin supplying objective intensity estimates. • The forecasters would like an algorithm that objectively identifies weak systems, and picks up the ones that eventually develop into tropical cyclones. In effect, the request is to develop a “front end” for the current ADT.

4. 4. Methodology • Rather than re-invent the wheel, we are employing a couple of promising objective schemes that have recently been developed and demonstrated at other Institutions. -- A tropical cloud cluster (TCC) tracking algorithm has been developed by Dr. Chris Hennon and colleagues at the Univ. of North Carolina at Asheville (Hennon et al. 2010). -- A second computer-based scheme has recently been tested by Prof. Robert Hart and his student Josh Cossuthat Florida State University (Cossuth et al. 2010). This algorithm calculates the probability a candidate tropical disturbance will develop into a TC. Colleagues on the project include hurricane specialists from NHC. • Both of these schemes could potentially be fitted to the ADT front end. We have already contacted Drs. Hennon and Hart, and they are enthusiastically supportive of implementing the schemes into the ADT framework for testing and applications. [Note: There is no additional cost to GIMPAP for this outside collaboration.] • We also plan to develop and calibrate an IR-based intensity estimation algorithm that operates on these weak systems, and would fit in between the above two schemes.

5. 5. Expected Outcomes • Upon successful implementation of the aforementioned algorithms at CIMSS, we will begin the process of marrying the ADT operatives and constraints with the new information inputs. There will obviously be a period of calibration and setting of thresholds, etc., followed by a period of validation on a dependent dataset. • When ready, we then expect independent testing to begin with a real-time in-house trial during the 2013 hurricane season, to assess the robustness of the new ADT “front end” capabilities. • Upon satisfactory results, we will end the research phase of the project with recommendations for operational transition.

6. 6. First Year - Preliminary Results • Algorithm to identify and track coherent tropical cloud clusters (TCCs; candidate TCs) has been obtained from UNC-Asheville collaborators, and implemented at CIMSS. • Adaptation of TCC-tracking algorithm to operate on real-time imagery has been completed, and assessment is underway (example, next slide). • Methodology to estimate the likelihood of TCC development (probabilistic) obtained from FSU collaborators.

7. 6. First Year - Preliminary Results

8. 7. Possible Path to Operations • Based on the recent endorsement of the User Request to support the transition and maintenance of the ADT by the SPSRB, we will prepare a project plan and PSDI proposal that will help carry the research improvements into the operational version now supported by NESDIS. • This work will also benefit the GOES-R HIE algorithm (ADT adaption) which will represent the future operational version of the ADT in the GOES-R era, and will eventually be demonstrated through the GOES-R Proving Ground.

9. 8. FY13 Milestones July, 2012: Project begins Nov. ‘12: Implementation of outside algorithms into ADT framework completed Nov. ‘12 - May ‘13: In-house testing on 2012 tropical disturbances (validation, evaluation, algorithm refinement) May ‘13: First version of intensity estimation algorithm calibrated and readied for independent real-time test Jun ‘13 - Dec ‘13: Real time demonstration on multi-basin disturbances Jun ‘14: Validation/evaluation complete, write final report and recommendations for operational transition

10. 9. Funding Request (K) Leveraged Funding: None

11. 10. Spending Plan FY13 • FY13 $80,000 -- Grant to CIMSS - 70K Labor: ~1MM PI, ~5MM Research Scientist - 5K Travel (1 trip for 2 people to TC conf/wkshp) - 5K Publications