Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution

1. Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution A Nordic Marine Academy Course held 10 – 16 October 2005 at Espegrend Field Station, Bergen, Norway

2. Time The oceans are changing • Marine ecosystems are commonly perceived as mechanical systems. • Perturbations are reversible. • Species and interactions are constant. • Regression analysis can predict the future. ?

3. Heat content in upper 3000 m. However… • Physical conditions go beyond historic ranges. • Pollutants stress organisms. • Ecocystems are qualitatively different. • Depleted stock are not recovering. Levitus, S., Antonov, J.I., Boyer, T.P., Stephens, C. 2000. Warming of the World Ocean. Science, 287, 2225-2229. Worm, B. and Myers, R.A. 2003. Meta-analysis of cod-shrimp interactions reveals top-down control in oceanic food webs. Ecology, 84, 162-173.

4. Several equilibria- also unstable ones. Hysteresis – development may follow alternative trajectories. Irreversibility?

5. Regimeshifts Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S., Foley, J.A., Folke, C., and Walker, B. 2001. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature, 413, 591-596.

6. World catches

7. Fishing down

8. Before humans With humans Altered ecosystem structure:Kelp forests

9. Estuaries Before humans With humans Jackson, J.B.C. et al. 2001. Historical overfishing and the recent collapse of coastal ecosystems. Science, 293, 629-637.

10. Marine ecosystems are increasingly dominated by human intervention • Climate change, pollution, habitat destruction, fisheries… • BUT: will mechanisms also change? • Can we build a predictive science • through understanding mechanisms, • and how they scale from physics to evolution?

11. Evolutionemerges Patterns emerge Trade-offs emerge A population is a collection of individuals and their actions Physical forcing Light, temperature, turbulence, turbidity, salinity, pH… Individual state Age, sex, size, energy reserves, position…

12. Evolutionemerges Patterns emerge Helge Drange Christoph Heinze Ulf Dieckmann Bruno Ernande Andy Visser Per Jonsson Øyvind Fiksen Christian Jørgensen Geir Huse Espen Strand Mikko Heino, Bruno Ernande, Ulf Dieckmann, Erin Dunlop Trade-offs emerge A population is a collection of individuals and their actions Physical forcing Individual state

14. Student presentations Monday: Oceanography, biogeochemical cycles, and phytoplankton • Kristine Skovgaard Madsen • Ingrid H. Ellingsen • Cecilie Hansen • Olivia Langhamer • Inga Hense • Elin Lindehoff • Wanderson Fernandes de Carvalho

15. Student presentations Tuesday: Zooplankton • Agurtzane Urtizberea • Øystein Varpe • Paolo Simonelli • Thomas Torgersen

16. Student presentations Wednesday: Coexistence and speciation • Martin Pedersen • Sarah Robinson Wolrath • Raul Primicerio • Sigrunn Eliassen • Varvara Fazalova • Guðni Magnús Eiríksson • Jostein Starrfelt • Jan Heuschele

17. Student presentations Thursday: Fish early life stages and recruitment • Krzysztof Świtek • Frode Bendixen Vikebø • Trond Kristiansen • Tian Tian • Ivo Orellana • Gert Virenfeldt • Päivi Laine • Jónas Páll Jónasson • Kjersti Eline Larsen

18. Student presentations Saturday: Fisheries-induced evolution • Davnah Urbach • Paul Venturelli • Anne Maria Eikeset • Shahaama Abdul Sattar • Karin Nilsson • Dorothy Dankel • Geir Halnes • Erin Dunlop

19. Administrative information • Travel costs. • Course diploma. • Lock office building from dinner starts until breakfast is over. • Please be quiet after midnight. • Computers: • Computer room with printer. • Internet in rooms. • Discuss, discuss, discuss!

20. Shop Social information • Food: • Allergies, vegetarians… • Snack when you like! • …but help us keep the kitchen tidy. • Soda, beer, and wine. • Sauna (and swimming). • Evening in Bergen. • Shops…

21. Questions?