D.A. Coleman Department of Social Policy and Social Work, University of Oxford

1. Marriage in Multi-Ethnic society, Netherlands Demographic Society Annual Conference, Het Trippenhuis, Amsterdam, 9 October 2003Partner choice and the growth of ethnic minority populations D.A. Coleman Department of Social Policy and Social Work, University of Oxford http://www.apsoc.ox.ac.uk/oxpop

2. Not much marriage please - we’re North Western Europeans • Marriage an odd choice for a 21st century conference, in the homeland of the ‘Second Demographic Transition’? • But marriage alive and well and living in (most) European ethnic minority populations. • Host / immigrant distinctions enshrined in ‘Hajnal’s line’ apparent since 16th century, sharpened in 20th.

3. Basic data on marriage contrasts • Most Eastern European and non-European : marriage universal and early. often arranged or consanguineous. cohabitation and extramarital births rare. households often complex. • Most ‘minorities’ in this group • Traditional ‘Western’ – West of ‘Hajnal’s line’: marriage late, often avoided, mostly not arranged. cohabitation and extra-marital births unusual. Households usually nuclear-based. • Data on marriages / unions of ‘ethnic minorities’ very uneven (e.g stock, not flow).

7. How marriage affects growth of ethnic minority populations • 1. Migration in relation to marriage -Family reconstitution: reestablish family -Family formation to create new family or even primarily for migration • 2. Arranged/endogamous/consanguineous marriage vs. free partner choice Measures, determines assimilation or minority formation. Affects growth through: - Fertility preferences of imported spouses - Creation of new ‘mixed’ ethnic groups

8. 1.Migration in relation to marriage • Fundamental reason for growth of foreign / ethnic minority populations in Europe post 1960s. • Dependent / spouse migration continues to dominate migration streams to the West. • Direct effect of numbers. • Indirect effects of (often) high fertility and permanent ‘community’ formation. • Marriage migration replaces reconstitution migration from 1980s. May accelerate?

10. Net immigration to EU15 1960 - 2001 (thousands)

11. Components of immigration flows to Western Europe (OECD 2003)

12. Spouse migration to the UK 1973 - 2001 (thousands)

13. Spouse migration as % gross foreign inflow to UK 1975 - 2001 (two versions)

14. Displacement of family re-constitution migration by family formation migration UK 1982 - 1995

15. Displacement of family re-unification migration by family formation migration, Netherlands 1995, 2002

16. Macro / micro factors affecting migration for family formation • Immigrant populations with prescriptive marriage patterns (race/caste/religion specific, consanguineous). • New migration streams with similar prescriptive preferences. • Weak or strong cultural change. • Growth in size of appropriate age-group. • Sending country pressures. • Receiving country policies.

17. Theoretical expectations in demography of ethnic minorities • ‘Characteristics’ theory: old fashioned FDT theory. • ‘Minority status’ theory. Two options - fundamentalist ‘defensive structuring’; or accelerated transition for upward mobility. • ‘Cultural particularism’ - new(ish) model FDT theory. • General assumption of acculturation.

18. Theoretical disappointments • Second generation marital choice may be same as / even more ‘traditional’ than first generation (Belgian, Dutch Muslims). • Not a consistent finding (e.g. Asians in US). • This ‘traditional’ behaviour may serve ‘modern’ ends. • Arranged marriage may co-exist with modernisation of other demographic areas.

19. Growth of South Asian ethnic minority populations of marriageable age, GB 1981-01.

20. Modernisation of (some) demographic patterns 1. TFR trends of ethnic minority populations, Great Britain LFS own-child)

21. Modernisation of (some) demographic patterns 2. Age Specific Fertility Rates, Indian women, UK, 1965-2001

22. Reversal of (other) demographic patterns 2. Age Specific Fertility Rates, Black-African women, UK, 1965-2001

23. 2. Partner choice and the rise of new ‘mixed’ ethnic groups. • Assortative unions tend to preserve ethnic characteristics – arranged marriages etc. • More random partner choice can create ‘new’ groups of mixed origin. • Choice of ethnic identity / ethnic mobility. • May increase or diminish group size. • Intergenerational transmission of values important.

27. Ethnic groups of mixed origin, England and Wales 2001

28. Births of mixed origin by ethnic group of mother, Great Britain 1992 - 2000 (LFS)

29. Populations of mixed origin, England and Wales 2001

30. Populations of mixed origin, England and Wales 2001

31. Mixed populations by age compared with all ethnic, numbers and percent.

32. Population of mixed Caribbean origin compared with all Caribbean origin (numbers and percent), England and Wales 2001.

33. Fertility of populations of mixed origin (all combined)

34. Policies on migration and marriage • Policies differ on age, status, duration of residence, suitability of accommodation. • Facilitation of inflows for re-unification and new unions (Canada 2002, UK 1997). • Anxiety about ‘arranged marriage’ in UK on social grounds. • Age-restriction (24) on family re-union (Denmark 2002). • EU enlargement and asylum flows change basis of eligible population.

35. Policies on migration for marriage – some criteria • Citizenship of principal. • Possession of employment permit by principal. • Minimum age of partners. • Legally married or cohabiting. • Suitable housing available. • No charge on public funds. • Duration of time after arrival of principal. • Prior official approval for registration. • Primary purpose test. • Amsterdam Treaty 1999 and EU Directives

36. Conclusions • Marital behaviour of ethnic minorities: -differs between groups, -often fails to conform to theory -not congruent with other demographic change. • Union migration biggest open-ended migration channel, will define national ethnic composition. • Trends in partner choice a major factor in future migration flows, and isolation / assimilation of ethnic populations. • Inter-ethnic marriage may diminish or increase group size.