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Predictably Great Planning For an Unpredictable Future

Predictably Great Planning For an Unpredictable Future. Ted Knowlton, Wasatch Front Regional Council Utah / Western APA Conference Fall 2014. The current domain of resiliency planning. Planning for a fundamentally uncertain future. HEADLINES FROM 2030. “Jazz win first NBA title”

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Predictably Great Planning For an Unpredictable Future

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  1. Predictably Great Planning For an Unpredictable Future Ted Knowlton, Wasatch Front Regional Council Utah / Western APA Conference Fall 2014

  2. The current domain of resiliency planning

  3. Planning for a fundamentally uncertain future HEADLINES FROM 2030 “Jazz win first NBA title” “President Chelsea Clinton bans non-pot smoking” “Jenna Bush announces candidacy for President” “Fidel Castro dies at age 102, Cuban cigars now legal” “BYU joins the Texmex 12 conference”

  4. What might happen? SomePredictability • Demographic mix • Amount of growth • Consumer attitudes • Industry shifts • Energy costs • Economic cycles • Climate change • Natural disasters Unpredictable

  5. Resiliency in the face of: market shifts

  6. Cohort Changes that will Drive the Housing Market Wasatch Front DemographicsGovernor’s Office of Management and Budget 31%

  7. Where We want to live versus where we live

  8. Industry Shifts • Internet-related retail decline • Auto industry dealer consolidation • Industrial restructuring

  9. Market Uncertainty?  Policy Flexibility

  10. “Market shifts” example policies • North Salt Lake General Plan 2013 • Town Center policies

  11. “Market shifts” example strategies • South Salt Lake “East Streetcar Neighborhood Form Based Code”

  12. Utah’s template Form Based Code

  13. Higher density zoning provides More Market Flexibility DU/Acre

  14. Resiliency in the face of: Economic uncertainty

  15. Gas Prices Recent Trends Projections U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, September 2012 US Energy Information Agency

  16. Monthly Household Expenditures on Transportation 2000 2008

  17. Most households are spread thin • Utahans spend about 25% on transportation

  18. Household Decisions in Turbulent Times? ? • Housing? • Transportation? • Work? • Food? • Do city residents have the options available to cope? ? ? ? ?

  19. What choices does a household have? • Housing Choices? • Transportation Choices?

  20. Destinations reachable without a car? Jobs reachable within 40 minutes of homes Now 2040

  21. Economic Uncertainty?  provide options for households?

  22. “Choices” as a powerful and accurate communication tool Two valid ways of communicating: • A mix of housing options in the community • = • “I have more choices” • = • “I have more control over my life” • More high density housing in the community • = • “More crowding in the community” • = • “I feel less safe”

  23. “Choices” as a powerful and accurate communication tool Two valid ways of communicating: • “Choices” • “Crowding”

  24. Key Takeaways • Resiliency Planning in cities is critically needed and in its infancy • Market Uncertainty?  Policy Flexibility • Economic Uncertainty? Maximize Choices • Communication Approach Matters! • Higher density zoning provides More Market Flexibility • “Choices” = control over your life

  25. Predictably Great Planning For an Unpredictable Future Ted Knowlton, Wasatch Front Regional Council Utah / Western APA Conference Fall 2014

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