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Overview of Midwest Workforce

Overview of Midwest Workforce. Bill Testa Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago November 21, 2002. Workforce features. Marginally high income/high wage region A “blue-collar” region; manufacturing concentration”. Region of manufacturing. Region of manufacturing. Workforce features.

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Overview of Midwest Workforce

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  1. Overview of Midwest Workforce Bill Testa Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago November 21, 2002

  2. Workforce features • Marginally high income/high wage region • A “blue-collar” region; manufacturing concentration”

  3. Region of manufacturing

  4. Region of manufacturing

  5. Workforce features • Education attainment--higher HS and HS-plus; lower at “college/college-plus”

  6. Educational attainment 1990

  7. Workforce features • Out-migration led by younger and more educated. • Domestic in-migration rates lower (often negative); immigration rates positive but lower

  8. Foreign Born Population in MW Metro areas

  9. Workforce features • Urban/rural split similar to U.S. • Large cities among most segregated

  10. Seventh District: Currentunemployment rates

  11. Workforce features • Ag-related employment close to U.S. average; many rural towns struggling • Manufacturing decentralizing to rural towns, but income gains are paltry • Age profile similar on average--older in rural areas, younger in large urban areas

  12. Historic perspective • Region became high-income during late 19th and early 20th century through agriculture, manufacturing & urbanization • Sources of high wealth and sustainability? • --Natural resources: transport, energy, land • --Agglomeration • --Market structure? (union, oligopoly, • dis-equilibrium)

  13. Fall and rise (and fall?) • Per capita income • Midwest share of nation’s manufacturing • Employment growth

  14. Per capita income vs. U.S.

  15. MW manufacturing job share of the U.S

  16. Employment growth

  17. Midwest recovery: Transitory? • Restructuring fundamentals • --New technologies • --Firm re-structuring/industry shifts • Idiosycratic factors • --S & L crisis • --Defense build-down/base closings • --Falling dollar • --Low energy prices

  18. Recovery: Participation not wages (employ/population)

  19. Recovery: Earnings/worker vs.income per capita

  20. The “participation recovery:” To be repeated? (unemployment)

  21. Implications and (other) issues • How much will MW economic growth be regained/sustained? • High average incomes? • Welfare-to-work population re-employed? • Work force “shortages” and growth • impediments?

  22. Implications and (other issues) • How productive the Midwest workforce? • Can MW “Development” be accomplished? • --High tech/creative class occupations and • firms.

  23. Policies/priorities for the Midwest? • Training: where to focus? (jobs to match?) • Job market efficiency (spatial and otherwise) • Immigration & assimilation • Facilitating an older/diverse work force • Rural economic transition • Prison released population issues

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