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Randomized Evaluation: Do s and Don’t s. An example from Peru Tania Alfonso Training Director, IPA. Outline. Design Implementation Analysis. Outline. Design Research question Power Randomization Sampling Implementation Analysis. Research question.
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Randomized Evaluation: Dos and Don’ts An example from Peru Tania Alfonso Training Director, IPA
Outline • Design • Implementation • Analysis
Outline • Design • Research question • Power • Randomization • Sampling • Implementation • Analysis
Research question • Do make sure the research question is policy relevant • Do make sure your indicators are answering your research question
Power • Don’t conduct an under-powered evaluation • What does it mean to be under-powered? • Sample size and power
Power • Do power calculations first • Effect size • Sample size • Getting data • (What will take-up be?)
Power • Do cluster your standard errors when doing power calculations • Bad examples (two districts, 10,000 people)
Randomization • Do Ensure balance • Stratification • Re-randomizing • Costs and benefits
Sampling • Do make sure your sampling frame is as close to your target population as possible • Effect size
Outline • Design • Implementation • Measurement • Monitoring • Attrition • Analysis
Measurement • Don’t collect data differently for treatment and control groups • Introducing bias
Measurement • Don’t use as your primary indicator something that may change with the intervention, even when the outcome does not
Monitoring • Do monitor your intervention to ensure the treatment groups are receiving the treatment, and control groups are not • Contamination
Monitoring • Do collect process indicators to unpack the black box
Attrition • Do whatever it takes to minimize attrition • Attrition bias
Outline • Design • Implementation • Analysis • Treatment integrity • Attrition • Final outcomes • Subgroup analyses • Covariates
Integrity of design“Once in treatment, always in treatment” • Don’t switch treatment or control status, based on compliance • Intention to Treat • Treatment on Treated
Attrition“Once in sample, always in sample” • Do not ignore “attritors” • Attrition bias
Attrition • Don’t relax just because rates of attrition are the same in treatment and control groups • How do we test • How do we know
Final outcomes • Don’t run regressions on 20 different outcomes and only report on 1 or 2 “significant impacts” • Do report on all outcomes
Sub-group analysis • Don’t run regressions on 20 different subgroups and only report on 1 or 2 “significant impacts”
Covariates • Do specify the regression(s) you plan to run beforehand • Do include covariates that you stratified on and those helpful for absorbing variance.
External Validity • Do be modest about the external validity of your results • Consider the context (needs assessment) • Consider the process (process evaluation)
Cost effectiveness • Do have listened to Iqbal’s lecture yesterday • Not sure if he is presenting or covered this…just a guess…