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Section 1 - Basic Probability Concepts

Section 1 - Basic Probability Concepts. Disclaimer. This is just a quick overview; not everything STAT 414 does a great job teaching basic probability Make sure you read through Actex chapter 1 and understand all of the basic concepts

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Section 1 - Basic Probability Concepts

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  1. Section 1 - Basic Probability Concepts

  2. Disclaimer • This is just a quick overview; not everything • STAT 414 does a great job teaching basic probability • Make sure you read through Actex chapter 1 and understand all of the basic concepts • I don’t want to waste time and be redundant this but these concepts form the foundation of everything – make sure you know it!

  3. How to Study Basic Probability • These are all “tools for your toolbox” • Many of them seem obvious and basic, but RECALL is important • Problems are written to see if you know all of the formulas • Be able to immediately recognize what formula a problem is based on • This is why it’s important to work problems!

  4. Basic Probability • Union: “or” • Intersection: “and” • Try to use venn diagrams (“common sense” over formula memorization) • Look for complementary probabilities • These are the “gimme” problems so get those easy points! • Use visuals to lay out the problem

  5. Some Terminology • Mutually exclusive: Two events that have no intersection • Independent: Two events such that the occurrence of one gives no information about the occurrence of the other (Think MULTIPLY!!!) • OPPOSITE of mutually exclusive: a mutually exclusive event tells you the other doesn’t occur • Partition: Events form a “partition” of the probability space if they take up the whole space (aka Exhaustive) • Or, events form a “partition” of another event if they take up the whole event • (This is important to understand for Bayes Theorem)

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