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GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHICS: SHAPING REAL ESTATE’S FUTURE

GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHICS: SHAPING REAL ESTATE’S FUTURE. M. Leanne Lachman Lachman Associates May 5, 2010. Takeaways. Greatest urban population growth in 3 largest countries: China, India, U.S. In U.S., Gen Y outnumbers Baby Boomers

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GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHICS: SHAPING REAL ESTATE’S FUTURE

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  1. GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHICS:SHAPING REAL ESTATE’S FUTURE M. Leanne LachmanLachman Associates May 5, 2010

  2. Takeaways • Greatest urban population growth in 3 largest countries: China, India, U.S. • In U.S., Gen Y outnumbers Baby Boomers • Fastest growing regions: Africa, Middle East, Southeast, Asia, South Central Asia (the globe’s future labor force) • Europe: only region facing population decline • Rapid expansion of moderate-income, middle-class, and affluent households throughout developing world • Overwhelming demand for residential, retail, logistics, hospitality, infrastructure development • Densification is key everywhere, including N. America

  3. World Population Growth Billions of People 2009: 6.8 Billion Least DevelopedCountries Less Developed Regions More Developed Regions Source: United Nations

  4. More Developed Countries - 2005 Male Female 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 5 Source: United Nations

  5. Less Developed Countries - 2005 Male Female 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 5 Source: United Nations

  6. Maturity & Youth More Developed Countries – 1.2 billion Less Developed Countries – 5.3 billion 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 5 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 5 Male Female Male Female Source: United Nations

  7. Urban/Rural Mix Billion Source: United Nations

  8. Working-Age Population Change Source: United Nations

  9. Employment by Sector - 2006 Developed Economies Source: ILO

  10. Employment by Sector - 2006 Developed Economies Latin America & Caribbean Middle East Central & Southeast Europe North Africa World East Asia Southeast Asia & Pacific South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Source: ILO

  11. Northern America Millions 445.3 405.4 338.8 Source: United Nations

  12. Northern American Urbanization Source: United Nations

  13. Latin America & Caribbean Millions 769.2 712.8 572.2 Source: United Nations

  14. Urbanization in Latin America & Caribbean Source: United Nations

  15. Asia Billion 4.9 4.6 3.8 EastAsia South Central Asia Southeast Asia Source: United Nations

  16. Asian Urbanization Source: United Nations

  17. Europe Million 731.2 706.9 666.3 Source: United Nations

  18. Europe’s 10 Big Countries Gain Loss Source: United Nations

  19. Selected EuropeanFertility Rates - 2008 Source: Population Reference Bureau

  20. EU Real Estate • Without growth, demand for replacement space only • New buildings will be needed – modern design, preferable locations, emerging uses (e.g., logistics, senior housing) • Demolition volumes must match construction volumes • Otherwise: • Vacancy rises • Rents fall • Values decline

  21. Middle East and Africa Million 2370.0 Middle East andNorth Africa 1829.9 1185.0 Sub-Saharan Africa Source: United Nations

  22. Middle Eastern/African Urbanization Source: United Nations

  23. MENA and Sub-Saharan Africa Source: World Bank, United Nations

  24. Global Real Estate Implications • Strong demand in the Americas • Only replacement demand in Europe: exercise caution • Increasingly global retail branding and chain store expansion:think emerging markets • Urbanization (and urban movement) generate massive real estate needs • Overwhelming moderate- and middle-income residential demand in emerging markets • Global production, commodity trading, and distribution require sophisticated logistics • Stimulus funds = infrastructure

  25. Population Projections to 2030 Thousands Source: Census Bureau

  26. Components of Population Change2000-2008 (millions)

  27. Households by Type: 2010 and 2020 Thousands Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies

  28. Two Big Generations

  29. America’s Ethnic Mix Source: Pew Research Center

  30. GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHICS:SHAPING REAL ESTATE’S FUTURE M. Leanne LachmanLachman Associates May 5, 2010

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