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This report provides information on the recent evolution, current conditions, and prediction update for the Asian-Australian monsoon system. It discusses rainfall patterns, atmospheric circulation, and the status of the monsoon in various regions.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP December 10, 2012 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, rainfall is slightly above normal near the Gangetic plains in north India, southeastern China, Korea, Japan, and sporadically across parts of southeast Asia as well as over western Australia. However, over southern central and southern peninsular India (in areas under the influence of NE monsoon), Laos, Thailand, and over eastern half of Australia, the rainfall is below normal.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The 30-day precipitation continues to be considerably above normal over southeast China and below normal over southeastern India. From the 1st of October thru the 5th of December, India Met. Dept. is reporting that the NE monsoon rainfall amounts over India is about 19 % below their long term normal. The Northeast Monsoon over southern India has so far turned out to be very weak.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days One week NCEP GFS model prediction (bottom left) of rainfall over south/southeast Asia continues to verify fairly accurately (top right) week after week.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary During the past 90 days, rainfall is slightly above normal near the Gangetic plains in north India, southeastern China, Korea, Japan, and sporadically across parts of southeast Asia as well as over western Australia. However, over southern central and southern peninsular India (in areas under the influence of NE monsoon), Laos, Thailand, and over eastern half of Australia, the rainfall is below normal. The 30-day precipitation continues to be considerably above normal over southeast China and below normal over southeastern India. From the 1st of October thru the 5th of December, India Met. Dept. is reporting that the NE monsoon rainfall amounts over India is about 19 % below their long term normal. The Northeast Monsoon over southern India has so far turned out to be very weak. From the 1st of October thru the 5th of December, India Met. Dept. is reporting that the NE monsoon rainfall amounts over India is about 19 % below their long term normal. The Northeast Monsoon over southern India has so far continues to remain relatively weak. For the upcoming couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model continues to predict below normal amounts over southern India and the model has resumed predicting above normal rainfall over southeastern China. In a new feature in the upcoming weeks, the model now predicts above normal rainfall over northern India near Kashmir and adjoining Pakistan region as well as over parts of western Australia.
