A National Program for Understanding the Mechanisms of Mind

1. A National Program for Understanding the Mechanisms of Mind James S. Albus Senior NIST Fellow Intelligent Systems Division National Institute of Standards and Technology Bldg 220, Rm B-124 Gaithersburg, MD 20899 james.albus@nist.gov

2. Goal A Scientific Theory of Mind Extend the frontiers of human knowledge to include a scientific understanding of the processes in the human brain that give rise to the phenomenon of mind.

3. Approach Bring together researchers from top laboratories around the country with a common focus for a "Decade of the Mind" Integrate elements from existing programs in: Neurosciences – neurophysiology, brain modeling Cognitive sciences – psychology, reasoning Computer sciences – AI, simulation & modeling Control theory – mechanisms and control Game theory – decision making, cost/benefit analysis Robotics – perception, world modeling, behavior Visualization – computer graphics, video games

4. Why Now? The science & technology is ready Neurosciences – computation and representation in the brain - biochemistry, synaptic transmission, functional modules, brain imaging Cognitive Modeling – representation and use of knowledge - mathematics, logic, language, learning, problem solving Intelligent Control – making machines behave appropriately - manufacturing, autonomous vehicles, manipulation, locomotion Computational Power – speed and memory that rival the brain ->1010 ops today, heading for >1015 ops. Depth Imaging – geometrical modeling of 3-D world - image & map segmentation, classification, symbol grounding Integration across disciplines – reference model architecture

5. Brain structure and function Cognitive & control architectures Computational equivalence Language Learning & memory Perception World modeling Reasoning Planning Control We are at a tipping point Analogous to where nuclear physics was in 1905 • Fundamental processes are understood in principle • Technology is emerging to conduct definitive • experiments • Significant military and economic applications • will develop early in the century

6. We live at a unique point in the history of science. The technology to discover and characterize how the subjective mind emerges out of the objective brain is within reach. The next years will prove decisive. -- Christof Koch from The Quest for Consciousness 2004

7. Computational power will soon be available Computing power of human brain ~ 1013 - 1016 ops Today’s supercomputer >1014 ops 1016 Cluster of 10 1015 Supercomputer 1014 Computing Power (ops) Single board 1013 1012 Computational power x10 every 5 years 1011 1010 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Date

8. Money Is Flowing Military – Future Combat System, UGV, UAV, UUV, UGS Commercial – autos, trucks Entertainment – video games Academic – AI, robotics Billions of $ will be invested over the next decade Progress is rapid Intelligent Machines Will Be Critical for Military Security and Economic Prosperity

9. NIST/ARL Roadmap to 2025 2005 – Robust autonomous road-following and off-road driving 2010 – LADAR cameras provide the range, resolution, and speed to cope with dense traffic 2015 – Cognitive reasoning capabilities enable useful tactical behaviors on the battlefield 2020 – Cognitive reasoning and tactical behaviors approach human levels of performance 2025 – Autonomous combat vehicles surpass human levels of performance in most, if not all, areas

10. A Plan for A National Program for Understanding the Mechanisms of Mind First Draft 1. Theory and Fundamental Science 2. Experimental Test Environment 3. Practical Applications 4. Performance Metrics 5. Social, Ethical, and Legal Issues

11. First Draft of a Plan 1. Theory and Fundamental Science • Goals: • To develop theoretical models of the brain that • describe the inputs and outputs of all of the major • neural modules and systems of the brain, and specify • the functional transformations that take place therein. • b) To develop theoretical models of the mind that • generate the functional equivalent of the phenomena • of perception, cognition, intention, imagination, • memory, learning, feeling, emotion, and behaviors • of manipulation, locomotion, and language.

12. First Draft of a Plan 2. Experimental Test Environment Goals: a) To develop experimental models of the brain that mimic the inputs and outputs of functional modules in the brain, and mimic the functional transformations that take place therein. b) To demonstrate the performance of brain models in controlling systems applied to real-world tasks of locomotion, manipulation, imagination, reasoning, and natural language conversation.

13. First Draft of a Plan 3. Practical Applications Goal: To apply intelligent systems technology to social and economic problems such as: Manufacturing – autos, appliances, planes, drugs, textiles Construction – roads, bridges, homes, businesses, factories Transportation – trucks, cars, buses, planes, trains Agriculture – planting, harvesting, tending, aquaculture Mining and drilling – digging, hauling, undersea ops Recycling and environmental restoration Renewable sources of energy Education and entertainment Aids to handicapped and elderly Medical and nursing care

14. First Draft of a Plan 4. Metrics Goals: a) To develop methods and measures for verifying, validating, and evaluating models of mind and brain. b) To develop methods and measures for measuring the performance of intelligent machines and systems.

15. First Draft of a Plan 5. Social & Ethical Issues Goal: a) To confront the social, ethical, legal, and philosophical issues related to investigating the human mind, including the implications for mental health. b) To provide a forum for public debate of the potential costs, risks, and benefits of understanding the mind, including possible religious and civil liberties objections. c) To address issues of unemployment, economic growth, and environmental implications of intelligent machines.

16. How Much Should We Invest? Investment should be commensurate with expected benefits NIST Study of Economic Impact on Manufacturing and Construction DOT Studies on Safety Impact of Driver Warning and Collision Avoidance Systems DOD Studies on Military Impact of Robotic Vehicles on the Battlefield

17. Similar National Investments Human Genome Program ~$3 Billion Hubble Space Telescope ~$3 Billion Apollo Moon Expedition ~ $20 Billion International Space Station ~$100 Billion Iraq war ~$2 Billion/week A Rational National Investment: $4 Billion over a Decade in Understanding the Human Mind

18. DARPA interest is high and will continue • - Dr. Tony Tether • DARPA Director • Biologically Inspired Cognitive Architectures (BICA) • Biomemetic Computing • Personalized Assistant that Learns (PAL) • Transfer Learning • Integrated Learning • Architectures for Cognitive Information Processing (ACIP) • Global Autonomous Language Exploitation (GALE) • Advanced Soldier Sensor Information System and Technology (ASSIST) • Real-World Reasoning (REAL) • Coordination Decision Support Assistants (Coordinators)

19. DARPA interest is high and will continue • - Dr. Tony Tether • DARPA Director • Improving Warfighter Information Intake Under Stress • Human-Assisted Neural Devices • Revolutionizing Prosthetics • Neurotechnology for Intelligence Analysts • About to begin a program to understand how the brain and vision system work together to process and recognize images

20. Plans to enlist other agencies: National Institutes of Health National Science Foundation NASA Army Research Laboratory Office of Naval Research National Academy of Science Plans for Implementation Krasnow Institute at George Mason University will host a workshop in Spring of 2007 to Ascertain the Advisability of a Decade of the Mind

21. Feedback Questions If you wish to register your opinion on any of these issues, please e-mail me at: James.Albus@nist.gov Or snail-mail to: James Albus National Institute of Standards and Technology Bldg 220, Rm B-124 Gaithersburg, MD 20899

22. Feedback Questions 1) Do you believe that a scientific theory of mind is a desirable goal? 2) Do you believe that a scientific theory of mind is achievable: within a decade? within two decades? before 2050? before 3000? never? 3) In your field of expertise, if you had a $ 50 million budget, and a 10 year planning horizon: what program of research would you propose? 4) How much could you usefully spend?

23. Feedback Questions 5) What areas of the brain would you choose to model? 6) What phenomena of the mind would you choose to model? 7) What parameters would you include in your model? 8) How would propose to test your model? 9) What kinds of experimental apparatus would be required to validate your model? 10) How would you demonstrate and evaluate results? 11) What are the fundamental metrics and measures?

24. Feedback Questions 12) What applications could be expected to result from success in what you propose? in medicine? in clinical practice? in health care? in manufacturing? in transportation? in construction? in services? in other areas? 13) In each area, estimate the economic and social benefits, costs, and risks. • 14) What do you think is the best approach to raising money and garnering political support? • 15) What are the pitfalls one should anticipate? • 16) What are the downside risks? • 17) What agencies are likely to provide funding? • What other questions need to be asked?

25. Handouts are Available