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The starting conditions are different. Growth trajectory to 2000. Rough Ride in 1980s-90s. Only 5 of the 25 odd years did GDP growth outpace population growth Manufacturing’s share of GDP declined and growth of industrial activity collapsed from 8% on average 1965-1975 to 1% 1990-2000
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The starting conditions are different Growth trajectory to 2000
Rough Ride in 1980s-90s • Only 5 of the 25 odd years did GDP growth outpace population growth • Manufacturing’s share of GDP declined and growth of industrial activity collapsed from 8% on average 1965-1975 to 1% 1990-2000 • MVA as share of GDP (15% 70s/80s to 12 in the 90s) and so employment • Agricultural productivity declined and hunger deepened • Income inequality increased. • Debt service paid as a % of GDP rose from 5% in the 70s to 15% in the 1990s • The absolute number of people living in abject poverty increased. • Child and maternal mortality worsened and life expectancy reversed in many countries
Biggest problem Policy space • conditionality (average 120) for 2 decades • Technical assistance (30% of disbursed aid) • Increasing aid dependency • Deteriorating current account • Stagnating growth • Stagnating rvenues • Illicit capital flight
There is a turn around – so an opportunity • Growth is on the up, but largely driven by natural resource prices and increased output of minerals • Fewer wars • Chinese, Indian and Brazilian capital, now Turkish • Reduced debt burden • Easing of fiscal space – IMF • Easing of policy space – China • Real estate
