CMGPD-LN Substantive Lecture

1. CMGPD-LNSubstantive Lecture Day 2 Longitudinal, Historical Data and Comparative Studies of Family and Population

2. Traditional approach to historical comparison • Countries, societies or entire continents as units of comparison • Even comparisons of quantitative phenomena are fundamentally qualitative • Conference volume with chapters written by individual authors, and a conclusion • Integrated volume by single author, or small number of co-authors, making use of secondary evidence • Measures rarely directly comparable

3. A new approach • Starting in the 1980s, various teams of researchers in Europe and Asia independently began constructing databases from historical household registers • Akira HAYAMI (Reitaku) recognized the possibilities for systematic comparison in the early nineties • Convened the first ‘Eurasia Project’ meeting in Kyoto in 1994, bringing together scholars working with European and Asian household registers. • Tommy Bengtsson (Lund) convened a follow-up meeting in Lund in fall of 1994.

4. Lund and Kyoto (1994) • Five teams introduced their household register data and research • Belgium, China, Italy, Japan, Sweden • Identified basic themes and principles • Household organization • Compare communities, not countries • Volumes on mortality, fertility, marriage • Event-history models for comparable results • Iterative development of models and conclusions • Consensual approach

12. Life Under Pressure • The first comparative volume • Lead-authored by Tommy Bengtsson, Cameron Campbell, and James Lee • Mortality patterns as a window into household organization • We thought mortality was the best to start with because it was the most clearly defined and easiest to compare • Meeting in Venice in 1996 led to development of an initial template for analysis • 8 years of iterations before volume appeared

13. Meetings • 2 initial meetings at Kyoto and Lund (1994) • 8 conferences in Arild, Beijing, Bloomington, the Hague, Kyoto, Liege, Osaka, and Venice (1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2001) • 7 side meetings at the Population Association of America (1998, 1999, 2000) and Social Science History Association (1998, 1999, 2000, 2001) • 3 side meetings at the International Economic History Congress (1997), International Congress of Historical Sciences (2000), and International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (2001) • Extended stays in Los Angeles by Tommy Bengtsson, and in Lund by Cameron Campbell

14. Life Under Pressure • Basic goal: understand the social organization of demographic responses to economic pressure • Move beyond the Malthusian framework in which response to pressure were driven largely by SES • Event-history to study mortality by • Community and household context, individual characteristics • Price • Price * context, characteristics

17. ConclusionsComparative Results • Mortality overall was always responsive to economic pressure. • More so in Europe than in Asia • The response to economic pressure was socially determined • Responding to economic pressure, households favored some members, and discriminated against others. • Accordingly, patterns of responses were highly variable across communities.

29. Prudence and Pressure • Follow-up volume focusing on reproduction • Fertilty

36. Prospects for future comparisons • Extensive published results from Dutch/Taiwanese comparisons • New databases constructed or being constructed in a variety of settings. • Some proprietary, some public • New project on East Asian household registers • First topic: migration • Examples of other datasets follow…

37. Other databasesPublicly available • Chosun-era Korean registers • Tansung and Taegu publicly available • Projects at Sungkyunkwan and Seoul National • Union Army Samples • Historical Sample of the Netherlands • Various other European databases in the next few years

38. Union Army Samples • http://www.cpe.uchicago.edu • P01 AG10120 (Fogel, PI) • Union Army (UA) sample • 40,000 white enlisted men (no commissioned officers) • 331 companies randomly drawn • US Colored Troops (USCT) sample • 6,000 black soldiers and white officers • 52 companies randomly drawn • Funding obtained to increase sample size

39. Union Army Samples • Begin with military records, link forward to pension records (including detailed surgeons’ exams) • Linkage to manuscript censuses • 1850,1860, 1900, 1910 for white sample • Work in progress on further linkage • 1850,1860 for free blacks and 1870,1880, 1900,1910, 1920, 1930 for all blacks

40. Topics Examined with UA Data • Income effects on retirement • Income effects on living arrangements • Effects of early life disease environment and occupation type on older age health and mortality • Effects of wartime stress on older age health and mortality • Social capital: did it determine willingness to risk death and survival during the war?

41. HSNHistorical Sample of the Netherlands • 80.000 Sampled persons (0,5%) from birth certificates 1812-1922 • Whole country (no specific region) • 37.000 Life courses completed: from cradle to grave (1850-2005) • Migration followed all over country • 800.000 Persons (including family)

42. HSNHistorical Sample of the Netherlands • Open system (oversamplings, new sources, etc.) • Website http://www.iisg.nl/hsn • Data on request (by way of license) only for scientific use (-> kma@iisg.nl)

43. Future HSNHistorical Sample of the Netherlands • Easy download (like IPUMS) for public part (deceased persons) • Integration with LINKS (matching all civil certificates1812-1912) - Including data on heights males • Life courses 1812-1850 (births) • Geo referencing all addresses

44. THE FRENCH-CANADIAN DATA BASE • After a weak initial influx of immigrants, the French-Canadian population essentiallygrewfomnaturalincrease; 20 000 in 1700, 70 000 in 1760, 200 000 in 1800 and 625 000 in 1850 • Complete set of parishregistersdating back to first settlers; good identification allowssystematiclinking of baptisms, marriages and burials and thus « reconstitution » of population in the form of individual and family files. The growth of the entire population monitored over two centuries • Researchtopics for thoseinterested in the Quebec population per se, but alsothoseinterested in the Quebec population as a « laboratory population »: heritability of demographic phenomena; fertility vs infant Mortality; seasonality of demographic events; the biology of fertility; early life events and longevity; twinning…

45. - The French-Canadian data base was set up within the « Programme de recherche en démographie historique » (PRDH) (The Research Program in Historical Demography) at the Demography Department of the Université de Montréal. - See http://www.genealogie.umontreal.ca/en/leprdh for a short description of the Program and a bibliography • The PRDH has a policy of making the data available for university research purposes upon request. Contact: • Professor Bertrand Desjardins or Professor Lisa Dillon • Département de démographieUniversité de MontréalC.P. 6128, succ. Centre-villeMontréal (Qc)Canada H3C 3J7 • bertrand.desjardins@umontreal.ca • ly.dillon@umontreal.ca

46. Other databasesAccessible, but not public • Colonial-era Taiwanese registers • Analyzed by Arthur Wolf and collaborators • Housed at the Program in Historical Demography, Academia Sinica • http://www.demography.sinica.edu.tw/nuke/ • The French Canadian Database • Utah Population Database • Swedish Demographic Databases

47. Utah Population Database (UPDB) • University of Utah research resource • Facilitate high-quality health related research • 35 years of research • ~7 million people • >100 approved projects http://www.hci.utah.edu/groups/ppr/

48. Intermountain Healthcare Genealogies (Family History Library) University of Utah Health Sciences Center Vital Records (Births, Deaths/Fetal Marriages, Divorces) Utah Department of Health Utah Population Database Center for Medicare and Medicaid Studies Utah Inpatient Hospital Claims (Utah Dept of Health) Utah Voter Registration Cancer Records (Utah Cancer Registry, Cancer Data Registry of Idaho) Driver Licenses (Utah Department of Public Safety) Social Security Death Records

49. Records Available in UPDB

50. Security and Confidentiality • Not a public database • For research only • Researchers have no electronic access to identifying information • State of the art database • Policies and procedures on confidentiality • All projects are reviewed by IRB and data contributions • Require researchers to sign confidentiality agreements • Contact of potential subjects by an appropriate third party Wylie and Mineau, Biomedical databases: protecting privacy and promoting research. Trends in Biotechnology, March, 2003.