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Participation Forecast and Report on Participation and Success Progress

Participation Forecast and Report on Participation and Success Progress . January 25, 2007. Participation Forecast. Designed to reflect current trends, and be conservative 5 years of historical enrollment by age, race/ethnicity, and county Uses new population projections

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Participation Forecast and Report on Participation and Success Progress

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  1. Participation Forecast andReport on Participation and Success Progress January 25, 2007 THECB 1/2007

  2. Participation Forecast • Designed to reflect current trends, and be conservative • 5 years of historical enrollment by age, race/ethnicity, and county • Uses new population projections • Projected population by age, race/ethnicity, and county • Non-resident participation factors • Institutional input on local conditions THECB 1/2007

  3. 2015 Projection is lower than previous forecast • Population projections decreased due to change in the recommended migration rate which: • Lowered statewide population projection • Difference largest for Hispanics • Most recent five-year enrollment trend flatter than that used two years ago THECB 1/2007

  4. Changes in Population Projectionsfor 2015 Source: Texas State Data Center THECB 1/2007

  5. Forecasted Enrollment Public Colleges and Universities THECB 1/2007

  6. 2004 and 2006 Participation Forecast Differences 1,317,000 1,292,000 THECB 1/2007

  7. Closing the Gaps Based on where Texas wants be by 2015 Expect changes to happen to reach goals Forecast Based on the historic trends What will happen if current patterns do NOT change Closing the Gaps vs Forecast THECB 1/2007

  8. Close the Gaps in Participation By 2015, close the gaps in enrollment rates across Texas to add 630,000 more students. THECB 1/2007

  9. Given Current Trends Texas Will Not Reach Closing the Gaps 5.7% Goal Public Colleges and Universities THECB 1/2007

  10. Higher Education is more diverse African-Am. Other Other African-Am. Hispanic White Hispanic White Fall 2000 Fall 2006 THECB 1/2007

  11. 2010 Hispanic Target remains a big challenge White Hispanic African-Am THECB 1/2007 * Asians are not targeted in the plan.

  12. 4 Regions account for 91% of Hispanic enrollment increase fall 2005 to fall 2006 THECB 1/2007

  13. Changes In Rate of Increase • Decrease in the number of delayed-entry students • University • One-year persistence is stable • Two-year persistence dropped in 2002 and is rebounding • Two-Year Colleges • One- and two-year persistence is stable THECB 1/2007

  14. The percent of students entering from public high schools increased slightly. (44.5%) (45.4%) (44.4%) (44.2%) (44.1%) (43.4%) (43.6%) (44.1%) Percent of Graduating Class THECB 1/2007 Into public higher education only.

  15. Participation Summary • Fall 2006 enrollments represented 2.1% growth over previous fall; low rate but better than 0.9% growth from fall 2004 to fall 2005 • Hispanic enrollment growth was substantial but continues to trail targets • Percentage of students coming directly from high school increased slightly THECB 1/2007

  16. Close the Gaps in Success By 2015, award 210,000 undergraduate degrees, certificates and other identifiable student successes from high quality programs. THECB 1/2007

  17. 31,460 more Bachelor’s, Associate’s and Certificates awarded than in 2000 93,765 31,460 THECB 1/2007

  18. University Graduation Rates Increasing THECB 1/2007

  19. Two-Year CollegesGraduation and Persistence Increasing THECB 1/2007

  20. Public Institutions’ Bachelor’s targets still below the 2010 Closing the Gaps Associate’s Bachelor’s THECB 1/2007

  21. Public Doctoral Institutional targetsExceed 2010 Closing the Gaps target THECB 1/2007

  22. Institutional Targets for Undergraduate Minority Awards’ are Far Short White* Hispanic African-Am. THECB 1/2007 * Not targeted in the Plan.

  23. How can we increase graduates in critical fields? Technology Nursing/Allied Health THECB 1/2007

  24. Technology degree change is not consistent across disciplines THECB 1/2007

  25. UG awards in Allied Health and Nursing continue to improve THECB 1/2007

  26. Percentage increase in UG awards at public institutions greatest for underrepresented groups +15.0% +51.4% +31.0% +55.3% THECB 1/2007

  27. Next Steps? • Revise strategies for each Closing the Gaps area to focus efforts on pertinent activities that lead to genuine progress • Concentrate on Hispanic participation and success THECB 1/2007

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