1 / 20

Participation Forecast

Participation Forecast. May 9, 2006. Participation Forecast. Designed to be conservative Based on five years of historical enrollment by age, race/ethnicity, and county Uses latest available population projections by age, race/ethnicity, and county

vance-pace
Download Presentation

Participation Forecast

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Participation Forecast May 9, 2006 THECB 5/2006

  2. Participation Forecast • Designed to be conservative • Based on five years of historical enrollment by age, race/ethnicity, and county • Uses latest available population projections by age, race/ethnicity, and county • Considers non-resident participation factors • Solicit institutional input on local conditions THECB 5/2006

  3. Public Higher Education Participation THECB 5/2006

  4. Caveats • Forecast is based on historical in-state participation patterns by county. If institutions recruit students from different areas, rates will change • The economy affects participation. It usually expands during times of increasing unemployment. THECB 5/2006

  5. Timing Issues THECB 5/2006

  6. Historical ratio between in-state and non-resident enrollment by institution Institutions’ 5 prior years’ historical enrollment by county/age/ ethnicity Current preliminary in-state enrollment by institution Adjustment for institutions’ policies and local conditions Compare 3-forecasts with current preliminary and select “best fit” rate for each institution Draft total enrollment forecast by institution 3-in-state enrollment rates by institution/ county/age/ ethnicity 3-in-state forecasts for current yr for each institution Enrollment Forecast Texas pop. By county/age/ethnicity Use “best fit” rate & pop to forecast prior, current, next 2 yrs, + 5 & + 10 yrs in-state enrollment by institution Adjust in-state Forecast by Institution for prior, current, next 2 yrs, +5 and +10 yrs 5 prior yrs current yr next 2 yrs, + 5 yrs, +10 yrs Enrollment Forecast Development Process THECB 5/2006

  7. Three Alternatives Participation Rates • Percentage county/age/racial enrollment rate for prior year • Two regression racial/ethnic rate • Each rate has attendance rates for 254 counties by institution by six age groups (15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40+) and four racial/ethnic groups (White, African-American, Hispanic, Other) THECB 5/2006

  8. In-State Participation by Age and Race/Ethnicity-Universities THECB 5/2006

  9. Percentage Rate • Total number of students in each age and racial/ethnic group from each county attending each institution • Divided by total population by age and racial/ethnic group in county • Gives each county’s age and race/ ethnicity attendance rate per institution THECB 5/2006

  10. Regression Racial/Ethnic Rates • Used to develop two straight line arithmetic trend participation rates • The previous five-year trend line extended to the following year • The previous five-year trend line extended to two years hence THECB 5/2006

  11. Yc= a + bx • Yc = predicted trend participation for each age and racial/ethnic group divided by the total population on specific age and racial/ethnic in the county by year • a = mean participation over the five-year period • b = deviation from center year multiplied by observed participation, summed and divided by sum of squares of deviations THECB 5/2006

  12. Yc= a + bx • x = +2 for five year trend extended to the following year • x = +3 for five year trend extended to the year after that THECB 5/2006

  13. Application of Rates • All three rate applications are used to produce current year’s forecast • “Best fit” rate becomes selected in-state participation rate • Selected rate must be closest to historical participation pattern: • if pattern is increasing, selection should be greater than preliminary current year’s participation • If pattern is stable, select nearest alternative THECB 5/2006

  14. Comparison with Current Year’s Actual/Preliminary Enrollment • If historical enrollment increasing or decreasing, rate chosen must be within 3% of the preliminary/actual current year enrollment • If historical enrollment is stable, alternative must be within 1% of the preliminary/ actual current year enrollment • Produce estimates for next 2 years and 5 and 10 year estimates THECB 5/2006

  15. Nonresident Participation Rates • 5 years of historical data used to determine “nonresidential percentage factor” • Current year’s estimate compared with preliminary/actual enrollment • Percentage applied to estimated enrollments THECB 5/2006

  16. Adjustments • Knowledge of local issues and changes considered when reviewing projections • Projected enrollments at capped institutions are redistributed to others • Draft sent to institutions for comment and potential alteration THECB 5/2006

  17. 2002 and 2004 Forecasts for 2005 and Actual THECB 5/2006

  18. FAQs • Economic issues and unemployment: can’t get regional forecasts variations. • Asians not included as separate racial/ethnic group because of small numbers in many counties. • Yes, even if only one person from a county a rate is developed. • Institutions with substantial nonresidents (e.g., those on border) harder to forecast. THECB 5/2006

  19. Conclusions • Forecast is better statewide than per institution. • Multiplier and institutional adjustments are fudge factors for influences that are harder to quantify. • State’s goal is for more students than forecasts predict. Hope forecast is wrong. THECB 5/2006

  20. Texas public higher education enrollment growth is not forecast to achieve target 604,000 335,000 118,460 Source: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board THECB 5/2006

More Related