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Status and future direction of CWB Regional NWP

Status and future direction of CWB Regional NWP. By Cheryl Terng J.H. Hong. Status and problems we have. Forecaster WRFVar WRF Typhoon forecast Precipitation forecast. Forecaster(1/2). Status

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Status and future direction of CWB Regional NWP

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  1. Status and future direction of CWB Regional NWP By Cheryl Terng J.H. Hong

  2. Status and problems we have • Forecaster • WRFVar • WRF • Typhoon forecast • Precipitation forecast

  3. Forecaster(1/2) • Status • 84h forecast 4 times per day, products are in WINS compare with other centers (NCEP、UK、JMA、EC…etc) • 2 times weather forecasting meeting per day (9:00、14:15 local time) (initial time: 18Z,00Z for this two), NCEP has the most close NWP products as CWB (model initial time) • 45Km/15Km/5km for wrf products • 0.5o~1o for other centers • Strength of WRF • Fine mesh model products • The most rapid products CWB could have (not for current weather meeting mode)

  4. Forecaster(2/2) • Weakness of WRF • Inconsistent forecast on consecutive NWP forecast • Typhoon track is not good on this season and zic-zac compare with GFS (CWB and others) • Wrong synoptic scale circulation compare with GFS (others) • Hardly using precipitation directly • Noise high 、pressure on cold start、no data run

  5. WRFVar(1/2) • Status • 2 operational mode • Full update cycle run with CWB_GFS as boundary • Cold start run with NCEP_as boundary and background • All GTS observations + high density satellite wind + Qscat + local AWS surface data • 45/15/5 Km WRFVar analysis • Typhoon relocation on three domains • Strength • Local radar data assimilation ( no use now) • New functions to add to operation • DFI、update cycle mode、4DVAR

  6. WRFVar(2/2) • Weakness • Less data in CWB • Worse forecast on full update cycle run than cold start run or no data run • CV5、GPS_RO are hardly compete CV3 and no GPS_RO experiments in current operation mode • EAKF in single mode currently

  7. Typhoon forecast (1/2) • Status • Same as WRF on 45/15/5 km model domain • Relocation on 45/15/5 Km (PPT) • Typhoon bogus data (PPT) • One way interaction • Strength • Terrain effects on typhoon track • Strength ( not concentrate on it yet)

  8. Typhoon forecast (2/2) • Weakness • Compare typhoon track forecast on GFS (CWB、NCEP、UK、JMA、EC、NOGAP….etc) • wind、mass typhoon center is not coeherent to each (PPT) • Typhoon center shift vertically (PPT) • zic-zac typhoon track forecast

  9. Future plan(1/3) • Forecaster • Communicate and application traning on mesoscale model • Trip on Oct/2008 • Continuously on 2009 • May-Jun • ???

  10. Future plan (2/3) • WRFVar_3X • CV3、CV5 • DFI (PPT) • Update cycle mode • 6、3、1h update cycle • Full update cycle、24h、12h update cycle (PPT) • Analysis vs forecast (PPT) • No data、cold start • NEW data • GPS_RO • Radar radial wind • IPW • GPS、SSMI、??? • GPS_ZTD • Radiance • DART/EAKF • 4DVAR (moisture’s problem)

  11. Future plan (3/3) • Typhoon forecast

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