A New Paradigm in American Policing? Future Perspectives on Current Trends

1. A New Paradigm in American Policing?Future Perspectives on Current Trends Joseph A. Schafer The New Paradigm in Policing Symposium Illinois Criminal Justice Information Authority November 29, 2011 Schiller Park, IL

2. Current Realities • Approximately 250 municipal & county LEAs in Cook & collar counties. • Problems with American model of provincial policing. • 2010 PERF study found: • Slight majority of agencies had less money in FY10 vs. FY09 • Among those with cuts, average loss of 7% • Most anticipated budget cuts in FY11. • Among all agencies 3% sworn and 1% non-sworn cuts in FY10 along. ¼ agencies expected to shrink in FY11. • Reduced travel, reduced training, delayed tech/capital upgrades. • 47% of chiefs reported services in their communities had declined.

3. Examples of Current Realities • Illinois State Police • ~10% budget reduction 2008 to 2010 • ~20% reduction in sworn staffing • Chicago has used furloughs • Naperville has cut programs and laid off personnel • Schaumberg has created mechanism for lateral hire of officers laid off due to financial exigencies • In all of the above, questions arise: • Effect on crime, clearance and arrest rates? • Effect on quality of service to the community? • Effect on safety, injuries, fatalities, and property loss? • Are “minor” crimes and property offenses being overlooked so agencies can focus on violent crime?

4. The Challenges for Today and the Future • Past efforts and models cannot be sustained, at least for now. • Will that capacity return? • Our nation’s system of provincial policing reflects our love of local governance, control, & accountability. • It is also expensive, redundant, and inefficient. • Parallels to London in the 1820s before the birth of “modern” policing? • What implications can be seen for futures thinking, leadership, organizational change, and the advancement of professional policing?

5. Futures Thinking • Considering possible, probable, and preferable futures • “The purpose of futures studies is not to know the future but to make better decisions today.” • Jerome C. Glenn • Similar to retirement planning • Not answers, but options • Yet the longer we put off action, the more constrained our options

6. We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.

7. Barriers to Futures Thinking in Policing • Reactive profession – tend to focus on tradition and past • Budgetary limitations and personnel shortages • Inadequate skills and training • Policing is still mired in the challenges of today, while carrying the baggage of the past (Bill Tafoya)

8. Exploring The Future of Policing Founded 1991 www.policefuturists.org Established 2002 futuresworkinggroup.cos.ucf.edu

9. Developing a Long View • As budgets & services shrink, what should be the focus of policing? • Police do more than fight crime • How do agencies maintain 15 years of success in reducing crime? • What do “success” and “value” mean in 21st Century policing? • What overall CJS value might be achieved by emphasizing policing (not necessarily police officers) over prisons?

10. What Should Local Policing Look Like? • Core services • Structure • Cost & value • Out-sourcing & privatization are not always better or more cost effective • Is it wise to out-source public order and visible deterrence to the private sector? • But do all services require fully trained and equipped officer? • (Agency) size does not always matter. • Is it time to rethink how we use patrol, investigations, and special units, as well as how those three relate to one another?

11. What are the paths forward? • Awareness that futures studies includes defining preferable futures • Life is not fatalistic • The future brings both challenges and opportunities. • Dialogue within your own agency about possible, probable, preferable futures • Proactive • Creating a culture/tradition • If not you, who?

12. The 21st Century Police Leader • Ask the difficult questions and seek answers from diverse audiences. • Challenges are rarely unique; decisions should not be made in a vacuum • Take an active role in developing coalitions that will enhance and mobilize public safety resources • Swiftness and certainty often trump severity • Be a true leader, not simply a manager or administrator • Find opportunity within the current crisis • Work to empower those who work for you • Be honest and transparent with officers • Engagement in decision making normally results in greater “buy in” • Define and pursue a future for your agency based on rational choice and evidence, not simply tradition and inertia • Understand and monitor the evolving trends in crime and policing

13. You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete. -R. Buckminster Fuller

14. Dr. Joe SchaferDepartment of Criminology & Criminal JusticeSouthern Illinois University Carbondale618-453-6376jschafer@siu.edu