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Undetermined H. Fuelberg, I. Navon , R. Stefanescu , and M. Marchand

Undetermined H. Fuelberg, I. Navon , R. Stefanescu , and M. Marchand Florida State University. Evaluation. Nudging Results | 11 February 2010 00Z: 6 Hour Assimilation. Our 1-D + 4-D scheme and two nudging schemes will be tested on four cases with copious lightning:

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Undetermined H. Fuelberg, I. Navon , R. Stefanescu , and M. Marchand

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  1. Undetermined H. Fuelberg, I. Navon, R. Stefanescu, and M. Marchand Florida State University Evaluation Nudging Results | 11 February 2010 00Z: 6 Hour Assimilation • Our 1-D + 4-D scheme and two nudging schemes will be tested on four cases with copious lightning: • Nor’easter (tentatively the 10-11 Feb. 2010 storm) • North Pacific mid-latitude cyclone (17-19 Dec. 2009 storm) • Tropical cyclone (Hurricane Karl, 2010) • Severe thunderstorm/tornado outbreak in the U.S. Background • Previous lightning data assimilation involved non-Newtonian nudging schemes. • Fierro et al. (2011) nudged the mixed phase region (0 to -30◦C) to supersaturation where total lightning occurred and nudged down hydrometeor contents where no lightning occurred. • Pessi and Businger (2009), using PacNetCG lightning observations, nudged latent heating rates from the Kain-Fritsch cumulus param. scheme to more closely correspond to lightning flash rates. • Our scheme uses a variational approach to assimilate lightning observations to alter temperature profiles to be consistent with observed flash rates. The variational approach is implemented using WRF 3D-Var and 4D-Var. d01 - 6 km Model / Nudging Specifications References Fierro, A., E. Mansell, D. MacGorman, C. Ziegler, and M. Xue, 2011: A lightning data assimilation scheme for the WRF-ARW model at cloud-resolving scales: Tropical Cyclone Erin (2007) and NSSL daily forecast runs.2011 Southern Thunder / GLM Users’ Conf. , Norman, OK. Jacobson, A., R. Holzworth, J. Harlin, R. Dowden, and E. Lay, 2006: Performance assessment of the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN), using the Los Alamos Sferic Array (LASA) as ground truth. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 23, 1082–1092. Pessi, A., and S. Businger, 2009: The impact of lightning data assimilation on a winter storm simulation over the North Pacific Ocean. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 3177–195. • WRF-ARW V3.3 • 6 km parent domain • 2 km nested domain • 60 vertical levels • No cumulus parameterization • WRF Single Moment 6-Class microphysics scheme • WWLLN lightning data assimilated in 10 min. windows over a 6 h period on the nested domain • - Poor detection efficiency—detects strongest flashes (Jacobsen et al. 2006) • Fierro et al. used WTLN total lightning observations. • When WWLLN lightning was observed in a grid cell, we saturated the mixed phase region. • Fierro et al. supersaturated the region up to 5%, depending on the flash rate. • Hydrometeors contents nudged where no lightning occurs as in Fierro et al. according to: • - IF( q ≥ b/ρair ) THEN q = MAX( 0.2*q , b/ρair ) where b = 1 g m-3

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