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First results of recently performed scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea for 1961-2099

First results of recently performed scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea for 1961-2099. H.E. Markus Meier Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute and Stockholm University. ECOSUPPORT co-workers Annual General Assembly 15 Oct 2009.

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First results of recently performed scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea for 1961-2099

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  1. First results of recently performed scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea for 1961-2099 H.E. Markus Meier Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute and Stockholm University ECOSUPPORT co-workers Annual General Assembly 15 Oct 2009

  2. First results of recently performed scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea for 1961-2099 H.E. Markus Meier Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute and Stockholm University ECOSUPPORT co-workers Annual General Assembly 15 Oct 2009

  3. First results of recently performed scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea for 1961-2099 H.E. Markus Meier Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute and Stockholm University ECOSUPPORT co-workers Annual General Assembly 15 Oct 2009

  4. First results of recently performed scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea for 1961-2099 H.E. Markus Meier Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute and Stockholm University ECOSUPPORT co-workers Annual General Assembly 15 Oct 2009

  5. Regional Global Regional climate models: Improving global climate scenarios • Increased resolution → detailed regional forcing • Greater number of explicitly resolved processes

  6. New simulations at SMHI: • Hindcast simulation 1961-2007: RCAO/ERA-40 • Two transient simulations 1961-2099: RCAO/GCM • New compared to BACC: no time slices, IPCC 2007, new model versions

  7. The RossbyCentre ensemble All simulations on the ENSEMBLES grid with RCA3

  8. The RossbyCentre ensemble Different AOGCMs All simulations on the ENSEMBLES grid with RCA3

  9. The RossbyCentre ensemble Different AOGCMs Different initial conditions All simulations on the ENSEMBLES grid with RCA3

  10. The RossbyCentre ensemble Different AOGCMs Different initial conditions Different model formulation (GCM) All simulations on the ENSEMBLES grid with RCA3

  11. The RossbyCentre ensemble Different AOGCMs Different initial conditions Different model formulation (GCM) Different emission scenarios All simulations on the ENSEMBLES grid with RCA3

  12. The RossbyCentre ensemble Different AOGCMs Different initial conditions Different model formulation (GCM) Different emission scenarios Different horizontal resolution All simulations on the ENSEMBLES grid with RCA3

  13. Biases in the recent past climate (1961-1990): winter (DJF) mean temperature and MSLP Source: Erik Kjellström, SMHI

  14. Biases in the recent past climate (1961-1990): summer (JJA) mean temperature and MSLP Source: Erik Kjellström, SMHI

  15. Seasonal mean 2m air temperature at Gotland Deep1980-2006 – downscaling results using RCA Observations

  16. Seasonal mean 10m wind speed at Gotland Deep1980-2006 – downscaling results using RCA Observations

  17. Seasonal mean precipitation at Gotland Deep1980-2006 – downscaling results using RCA Observations

  18. Mean 2m air temperature (winter), 1980-2006 Observations RCA/ERA40 RCA/ECHAM5

  19. Mean 2m air temperature (summer), 1980-2006 Observations RCA/ERA40 RCA/ECHAM5

  20. Mean 2m air temperature (summer), 1980-2006 Observations RCAO/ERA40 RCAO/ECHAM5

  21. Climate change (2071-2100 vs 1961-1990): winter (DJF) mean temperature and MSLP Source: Erik Kjellström, SMHI

  22. Climate change (2071-2100 vs 1961-1990): summer (JJA) mean temperature and MSLP Source: Erik Kjellström, SMHI

  23. Mean seasonal cycles of SST (in °C) averaged for the Baltic Sea Black: Hindcast 1961-2007 Red: RCAO/ECHAM5 A1B Blue: RCAO/HadCM3 A1B Solid: Control period 1970-1999 Dashed: Scenario period 2070-2099

  24. Filtered runoff 1970-2090 (m3/s) Black: Observations Red: RCAO/ECHAM5 A1B Blue: RCAO/HadCM3 A1B

  25. Black: Hindcast Red: RCAO/ECHAM5 A1B Blue: RCAO/HadCM3 A1B Volume averaged, annual mean temperature Volume averaged, annual mean salinity

  26. Changes of bottom oxygen concentrations (in ml/l)RCAO/HadCM3 A1B Annual mean Winter (DJF) Summer (JJA)

  27. Changes of bottom oxygen concentrations (in ml/l) RCAO/ECHAM5 A1B Annual mean Winter (DJF) Summer (JJA)

  28. Annual mean phytoplankton concentration (in mgChl m-3) vertically averaged over the upper 10 mHadCM3 A1B Present climate 1970-1999 Future climate 2070-2099

  29. Annual mean phytoplankton concentration (in mgChl m-3) vertically averaged over the upper 10 mECHAM5 A1B Present climate 1970-1999 Future climate 2070-2099

  30. Summary • The quality of the GCMs differs significantly. As a starting point we have selected ECHAM5 and HadCM3. We performed transient simulations with realistic control climate for the Baltic Sea. • Improved summer SSTs using the coupled RCAO model. • We found increased runoff but the mean wind speed changes are statistically not significant. Hence salinity decreases are smaller than in earlier scenario simulations. • Overall oxygen decrease but slight increases in ECHAM5 driven scenario simulations in intermediate depths. • Increased phytoplankton concentrations in both scenario simulations. • Next steps: runoff from a hydrological model HYPE, higher resolution in RCA (25 km)

  31. First results based on RCO-SCOBI and IPCC 2001: Future climate might be characterized by increased water temperatures, increased mixing, and (reduced loads) in the Baltic Proper Increased water temperatures => decreased oxygen concentrations in all regions Increased mixing => increased oxygen concentrations below the halocline => reduced winter DIP and reduced denitrification (i.e. increased DIN) Increased water temperature and increased mixing => increased (decreased) phytoplankton concentrations in the south-western (northern) Baltic Proper In future climate the ”business-as-usual in agricultural practices” scenario may have larger impacts than in present climate The BSAP will likely reduce the phytoplankton concentrations also in future climate 2020-01-03

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