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Scenario Results for LSJR/MSJR

Scenario Results for LSJR/MSJR. Withdrawal Location. Ocklawaha River. Yankee Lake. Lake Jesup. Taylor Creek Reservoir. Comparison of Simulation Period Discharge With Period of Record Discharge at DeLand. 12000. Simulation Period. 8000. 4000. Discharge (MGD). 0. -4000. 1970. 2000.

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Scenario Results for LSJR/MSJR

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  1. Scenario Results for LSJR/MSJR

  2. Withdrawal Location Ocklawaha River Yankee Lake Lake Jesup Taylor Creek Reservoir

  3. Comparison of Simulation Period Discharge With Period of Record Discharge at DeLand 12000 Simulation Period 8000 4000 Discharge (MGD) 0 -4000 1970 2000 1980 1990 1960 12000 1956 - 2009 8000 1996 - 2005 Discharge (MGD) 4000 0 -4000 100 80 60 40 20 0 Percent Time Flow Exceeds Indicated Value

  4. Mean April-July Discharge, SR44 (DeLand), 1956 - 2009 4000 296 MGD 1962 287 MGD 1981 215 MGD 2000 Simulation Period 2000 Discharge (MGD) 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

  5. Scenarios for Phase II of the St. Johns River Water Supply Impact Study

  6. Monthly Averaged Water Level 1996-2005 H, FwOR2030Base – 1995LU (2001 mean) 1995LU 1995RESTO 2030Base FwOR2030Base Shands Br 1995LU 1995RESTO 2030Base FwOR2030Base US17

  7. DeLand Discharge 2001 8000 6000 10% Exceedance (1956 – 2009) 4000 Daily Discharge (mgd) 2000 Median (1956 – 2009) 90% Exceedance (1956 – 2009) 0 -2000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001

  8. Daily Averaged Water Level 2001 H, FwOR2030Base – 1995LU (2001 mean) 1995LU 1995RESTO 2030Base FwOR2030Base Shands Br 1995LU 1995LU 1995RESTO 1995RESTO Dry Wet 2030Base 2030Base FwOR2030Base FwOR2030Base 1995LU 1995RESTO 2030Base FwOR2030Base US17 Dry Wet

  9. Water Level Differences 2001 H, FwOR2030Base – 1995LU (2001 mean) Daily-averaged Differences, FwOR2030Base – 1995LU 1995LU 1995RESTO 2030Base FwOR2030Base Shands Br Dry Wet 1995LU 1995RESTO 2030Base FwOR2030Base US17 Dry Wet

  10. Water Level Differences 2001 H, FwOR2030Base – 1995LU Dry Season Mean Jan. 1 ~ Jun. 31, 2001 Wet Season Mean Jul. 1 ~ Dec. 31, 2001

  11. Summary of Constant Discharge Tests (Simulated and observed water level set-up at 3 locations using low and high bottom roughness.) 60 Solid Line = Low Roughness (0.1 cm) Dashed Line = High Roughness (0.01 cm) Symbols = Observed Means for 1996-2005 Harney (SR46H) 40 H H from Astor (cm) Q 20 Sanford (US17) DeLand (SR44) 0 0 500 1000 1500 Constant Discharge (MGD)

  12. First-Order Estimate of Water Level Changes Due to Withdrawal (Under assumption of 1-D steady flow and using estimated H/ Q ) H at Sanford (US 17) for 155 MGD Withdrawal Low roughness rms error = 0.2 cm High roughness rms error = 0.5 cm

  13. Daily Averaged Salinity 2001 S, FwOR2030Base – 1995LU (2001 mean) 1995LU 1995RESTO 2030Base FwOR2030Base Buckman Br 1995LU 1995RESTO 2030Base FwOR2030Base US17 Dry Wet

  14. Salinity Differences 2001 S, FwOR2030Base – 1995LU (2001 mean) Daily-averaged Salinity Differences, FwOR2030Base – 1995LU 1995LU 1995RESTO 2030Base FwOR2030Base Shands Br Dry Wet 1995LU 1995RESTO 2030Base FwOR2030Base US17 Dry Wet

  15. Salinity Differences 2001 S, FwOR2030Base – 1995LU Dry Season Mean Jan. 1 ~ Jun. 31, 2001 Wet Season Mean Jul. 1 ~ Dec. 31, 2001

  16. Daily Averaged Water Age 2001 T, FwOR2030Base – 1995LU (2001 mean) 1995LU 1995RESTO 2030Base FwOR2030Base Shands Br Dry Wet 1995LU 1995RESTO 2030Base FwOR2030Base L. Monroe Dry Wet

  17. Water Age Differences 2001 T, FwOR2030Base – 1995LU (2001 mean) Daily-averaged Water Age Differences, FwOR2030Base – 1995LU 1995LU 1995RESTO 2030Base FwOR2030Base Shands Br Dry Dry Wet Wet 1995LU 1995RESTO 2030Base FwOR2030Base L. Monroe

  18. Water Age Differences 2001 T, FwOR2030Base – 1995LU Dry Season Mean Jan. 1 ~ Jun. 31, 2001 Wet Season Mean Jul. 1 ~ Dec. 31, 2001

  19. Summary of 2030 Changes • SLR dominates water level changes. • Relative changes to water level in MSJR are higher than Phase I Study because of restoration projects and operation of Taylor Creek Reservoir. • Salinity increases in LSJR during dry periods but generally increases in MSJR. • The greatest change to water age occurs in tidal freshwater segment of LSJR. Water age in MSJR generally decreases.

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