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Dabhol Power Company

Dabhol Power Company. MSEB: Future Outlook. November 2000. MSEB’s Financial Position. All figures in USD mn. Demand - Supply Position. All figures in MUs. Demand excludes 4300 MUs of Rural demand which as of now is under Load Shed. Assumptions - Demand & Supply. Demand

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Dabhol Power Company

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  1. Dabhol Power Company MSEB: Future Outlook November 2000

  2. MSEB’s Financial Position All figures in USD mn

  3. Demand - Supply Position All figures in MUs Demand excludes 4300 MUs of Rural demand which as of now is under Load Shed

  4. Assumptions - Demand & Supply Demand • Past CAGR (1994 - 99) for aggregate demand = 6.2% p.a. • Demand has slowed down in the last 2 years = 4.5% p.a. • Growth rate assumed = 4.8 % p.a. (as compared to 8.4% p.a. anticipated earlier) • 1500 MUs of Load Shed demand has been considered in 01-02 & 02-03. 4300 MU of rural demand under load shed has not been considered. Supply • Supply from existing plants and firm capacity additions of Central Sector • DPC Capacity • Block A in 2000-01 • Block A, B and C in 2001-02 • Entire capacity from 2002-03 onwards

  5. Assumptions - Revenue & Expenses Tariff • Past CAGR (1994 - 99) for average tariff = 7.4% p.a. • State Regulator has promulgated tariff increase of 6% for 2000-01 • Tariffs for paying categories (Industrial & Commercial) already at high levels (9 - 10 cents per unit) • Tariff Growth rate assumed = 4.1% p.a. (as compared to 8% anticipated earlier) Revenue • Revenue growth in the last two years ~ 7% p.a. • Revenue growth rate assumed ~ 9% p.a. • In addition, following upsides also assumed: • Revenues due to reduction in T& D losses • T & D Losses : currently at 32%; 1.5% reduction assumed p.a. till 2002-03 • Improvement in collections: efficiency projected to improve from 86% to 93%

  6. MSEB’s Future Outlook Cashflow Position • MERC expected to rationalise tariff for subsidised segments (agricultural & domestic) • Revenue growth expected to be ~ 9% p.a. • Assuming that GoM may not desire to pass on tariff shocks to consumers • Subsidy from GoM • Electricity Duty ($95 MM in 2001-02) and Debt Servicing on GoM loans ($138 MM in 2002-03) • Additional Tariff subsidy for Domestic & Agriculture consumers ($202 MM in 2002-03) • DPC’s current bill of $368 MM p.a. would go up to $1168 MM* p.a. on completion of Phase II MSEB’s cashflow deficits* expected to be of the order of $312 MM (2001-02), reducing to $212 MM (2002-03) 6 * Based on JCC = $23/bbl. and 81% PLF

  7. Assumptions: Consumption & Tariffs

  8. Tariff Rationalisation

  9. Comparison of Tariffs across States All figures in Rs./Kwh for 1998-99

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