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CEET Annual Conference 29 October 2010 Ascot House Ascot Vale

CEET Annual Conference 29 October 2010 Ascot House Ascot Vale. Literacy, numeracy, employment and productivity Gerald Burke gerald.burke@education.monash.edu.au. Aspects of literacy and numeracy . Basic data Employment Earnings Productivity and growth Implications and questions.

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CEET Annual Conference 29 October 2010 Ascot House Ascot Vale

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  1. CEET Annual Conference 29 October 2010 Ascot House Ascot Vale Literacy, numeracy, employment and productivity Gerald Burke gerald.burke@education.monash.edu.au

  2. Aspects of literacy and numeracy • Basic data • Employment • Earnings • Productivity and growth • Implications and questions

  3. Prose literacy level, by ageAustralia 2006 %

  4. Prose literacy Australia 1996 and 2006

  5. Australia, NZ Canada literacy levels

  6. Employment by numeracy level, persons aged 15 to 74, Australia 2006, 000

  7. Fig 4 Employed persons aged 15 to 74 by personal income quintile and prose literacy, Australia 2006

  8. Persons 15 to 74 by qualification level and prose literacy level, Australia 2006, ‘000s

  9. Table 3 Persons aged 15-24 years, not at school by parents’ level of education, Australia 2009

  10. Multiple variable analysis • Effects of literacy on employment and earnings still strong--though substantially modified and varied • Literacy important to employment to those without qualifications • Literacy has greater employment effects for females • Literacy has greater pay effects for males • Literacy has bigger effect on pay the higher the qualification • New studies: Curtis 2010 NCVER 2010, Shomos 2010 Productivity Commission, Earle 2010 NZ Ministry of Education

  11. Does individual pay indicate national productivity • Criticism: education levels may be used as a screen to sort jobs – so pay may due to getting the job not the education level • But Chiswick, Lee and Miller (2002 p.20) find considerable benefits in employment associated with literacy over and above that connected to education – which they argue undermines the screening criticism.

  12. Growth analysis • Instead of looking at individual employment and pay an alternative approach has been to measure the aggregate effects of physical capital, labour and human capital • This should pick up externalities not measured in individual pay and should reflect actual productivity

  13. Growth analysis 2 • Range of studies using literacy data from 1996 • Human capital measured by average literacy has substantial effect on level and growth in GDP • They suggest the findings on individual returns are matched in these macro studies • The models are highly aggregated -- their findings are also highly aggregated

  14. Some implications and questions • Literacy and numeracy rightly a high COAG priority • How hard is it to lift performance? • What are the best ways to lift performance? • What will it cost? • What incentives to institutions or individuals? • What annual measures do we have? • Use of ACER’s Vocational Indicator?

  15. Figure 1 Employment by qualification, persons aged 15-64, Australia 2009, 000s

  16. Fig 3 Full time employees 15 + over not at school, mean weekly earnings Australia 2005

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