Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology In NCREE

1. Development of EarthquakeAssessment Methodology In NCREE Chin-Hsun Yeh, Chin-Hsiung Loh and Keh-Chyuan Tsai

2. Outline of Presentation • Background of HAZ-Taiwan / TELES • Early Seismic Loss Estimation (ESLE) • Ground motion intensity • Soil liquefaction potential • Damage assessment of GBS • Casualty assessment • Concluding remarks • Potential applications Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

3. Lessons from Historical Earthquakes • Northridge (1994), Kobe (1995) earthquakes • Important issues in seismic disaster mitigation and catastrophic risk management • Seismic hazard analysis (deterministic or probabilistic) • Damage assessment of civil infra-structures • Socio-economic loss estimation • We need both a framework of methodology and an application software to integrate and to apply the state-of-the-art technologies Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

4. Background of HAZ-Taiwan • Proposed in 1997, started in 1998 by NSC • Develop an integrated GIS-based earthquake loss estimation system to be used in proposing seismic disaster mitigation strategies • Although at that time, only few inventory database and analysis models appropriate in Taiwan, the NSC spent a lot of money • Promote disaster mitigation researches • Solve practical problems Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

5. Methodology Framework of HAZ-TWN Potential Earth Science Hazards Ground Motion Ground Failure Direct Physical Damages General BuildingStocks EssentialFacilities TransportationSystems UtilitySystems Indirect Physical Damages Socio-economic Losses Fire Following Debris Casualties Shelters Economic Losses Indirect Losses Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

6. HAZ-TWN - a Decision-making Support Tool Natural Hazards Identification Data Collection and Modeling Comprehensive Hazard Analysis & Risk Assessment Mitigation Strategies Awareness and Preparedness Response and Recovery Performance Measures Planning and Exercise Scenarios Quick Situation Assessment Building Code Administration Ground Truthing Future Land Use Planning Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

7. Early Seismic Loss Estimation (ESLE) • TREIRS of CWB obtains earthquake magnitude, epicenter coordinates and focal depth within 90 seconds and sends e-mail to all clients • ESLE auto-trig by email and complete quick assessment (ground motion intensity, building damages and casualties) in less than 15 minutes • Important results automatically output in maps and tables to save time and man work • Run multiple instances at the same time and have user-friendly interface to compare and interpret simulation results Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

8. Application of ESLE in Emergency Responses Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

9. Prediction of Ground Motion Intensity Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

10. Chun-li A Deterministic Approach Site-Specific PGA, PGV andResponse Spectrum Amplification Epicenter Location, Focal Depth,Magnitude, Fault Trace, Rupture Length, Width and Dip Angle Local Site Conditions Wave Propagation─Intensity Attenuation and Frequency Filtering Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

11. Chi-Chi Earthquake as an Example Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

12. Different Sets of Source Parameters ShuangTung Fault Chelongpu Fault Arbitrary Rupture Plane Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

13. Seismic Event and Source Parameters Title of theMap Legend Intensities of Nantou, Taichung, Changhwa and Yuenlin are greater than six Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

14. Point source Shuang-Tung Fault Arbitrary Fault Chelongpu Fault Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

15. Estimation of Soil Liquefaction Potential Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

16. Very high Rock High Sediment, not sensitive Moderate Low Sediment, sensitive Very low Water None Borehole LSC & Geologic Map of Taipei Central Geological Survey Bureau, Taiwan Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

17. Very high High Very high Moderate High Low Moderate Very low Low None Very low Undet. 1 None Undet. 2 Undet. 1 Buffer Regions & LSC Map of Taipei Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

18. Damage Assessment of General Building Stocks Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

19. Analyses of Building Tax Data • Collect building tax data from 22 counties and cities in Taiwan • Calculate statistics of total floor areas • 15 MBT by material and height • 4 seismic design levels by construction year and location • 13 SOC by usage • Calculate mapping scheme of SOC to MBT for each town Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

20. Flowchart of Building Damage Assessment PESH Spectral Response Reduced for Damping/ Duration Effects Model building Type: Capacity Curve Fragility Curve Drift-Sensitive Non-structural Accel.-Sensitive Non-structural Structural P[DS  ds|SD or SA] P[DS = ds|SD or SA] N S M E C N S M E C N S M E C Damage States: N-None, S-Slight, M-Moderate, E-Extensive, C-Complete Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

21. 1-3-story: 37,000 > 8-story: 180 4-7-story: 3,100 Total: 40,000 Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

22. Building Damage Statistics in Counties Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

23. Building Damage Statistics in Towns Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

24. Casualty Assessment Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

25. Statistics of dynamic population distributions Casualty rates in various MBT and damage states Input of Casualty Assessment Day time Night time Commute time Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

26. BuildingInventory VulnerabilityAnalysis CasualtyRates Demographics Slight Damage Occupants Killed W1L Moderate Damage Occupants Killed Extensive Damage Occupants Killed Residential w/o Collapse Occupants Killed Complete Damage Collapse Occupants Killed S1L S1M S1H Casualty rate of wood buildings Commercial Industrial Government Education Flowchart of Casualty Assessment Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

27. 3,500 death or injuries Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

28. Casualty Statistics in Counties Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

29. Casualty Statistics in Towns Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

30. Comparison of Estimate and Report of Death Tolls (6 hour later) Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh

31. Conclusions • HAZ-Taiwan / TELES can be applied in • Emergency responses • Seismic disaster mitigation plans • Seismic hazard analysis & risk management • Modular approach, step-by-step improvement • Maximum probable earthquakes used in seismic disaster mitigation plans • Efficiency/priority of seismic retrofit of public works • Insurance rates for private residential and commercial buildings Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh