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Science questions. How will source-receptor relations change due to expected changes in emissions? How should future emission scenarios be constructed?. Global emissions of NO x [million tons]. Source: IIASA, Cofala et al ., 2005. 2010.
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Science questions • How will source-receptor relations change due to expected changes in emissions? • How should future emission scenarios be constructed?
Global emissions of NOx [million tons] Source: IIASA, Cofala et al., 2005
2010 Emission standards for gasoline vehiclesCurrent legislation 2000 Source: IIASA, Cofala et al., 2005
Maximum technically feasible reductions SO2 NOx BC OC Projections of global SO2, NOx, BC and OC emissionsfrom anthropogenic sources,relative to 2000 Businessas usual,with recentair qualitylegislations Source: IIASA, Cofala et al., 2005
Currently ongoing activities • China (Hao Jiming) • EDGAR (John van Ardenne) • GEIA (Claire Granier) • EMEP (Kristin Rypdal)
Emissions Inventories Emission = Activity level x Emission Factor Type of Sources and Pollutants, for a base year • Coal combustion: SO2, NOx,CO, Hg, PM • Biomass burning: black carbon • Emissions from transportation sector: VOC, NO, PM • Industrial processes: Hg from nonferrous metal smelting and cement production • Other sources of VOCs • a guideline for developing emission inventory
QAUNTIFY Eyring Bond vd Werf Hoelzemann GEIA Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) • Emission sources: • Biofuel/fossil fuel production/combustion • Industrial processes • Agriculture • Waste • Biomass burning • Compounds: • CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases • NOx, CO, NMVOC, SO2, NH3 • BC/OC 20?? 1890 1990 1995 2000 EDGAR + IIASA EDGAR + POLES EDGAR/HYDE EDGAR v3 EDGAR v2 EDGAR FT EDGAR v4 john.van-aardenne@jrc.it
Issues in emission inventories Activity data: biofuel use / biomass burning / statistics non-OECD Emission factors: emission abatement Grid maps (cm2 technical possible; data is often missing) Temporal resolution (emission by month/week/day/hour) Emission height (in which model layer is emitted?) Compound speciation (NMVOC, aerosol) Verification studies john.van-aardenne@jrc.it
Emission inventories and this task force • 1. Make use of existing work. • Do not define a new inventory but provide means for existing emissions inventories (global/regional/country/city) to exchange knowledge and improve insight. • 2. Verification of existing inventories • - Global emissions budget: (inverse studies/satellite data) • - Spatial/temporal resolution (measurement campaigns/regional modeling) • - Emission factors/speciation (local measurements) • 3. Science vs accountancy • Scientific capacity building in emission inventory development (exchange/training) • Fund accountancy work such as data mining on activity data and grid map construction for which often no scientific credits can be gained. • 1-3: How to deal with national (UNFCCC/EMEP-CORINAIR) emission inventories do we aim at independent estimates? john.van-aardenne@jrc.it
Emission inventories: a few issues Claire GRANIER Service d’Aeronomie / IPSL, Paris, France Also at: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany and CIRES/NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory, Boulder, USA
Development of international databases • Within: • the GEIA (Global Emissions Inventory Activity) project of IGBP Co-chairs: A. Guenther (NCAR, Boulder, USA) and C. Granier • the ACCENT (Atmospheric Composition Change) European Network Version 2 of the GEIA database developed as part of ACCENT http://www.accent-network.org First (global) inventories of GEIA-2 will be released ~ June, 15 • POET (1990-2000) • RETRO (1960-2000) Tools will be soon available: • visualization • comparisons • regridding • formats
A few issues • Consistency between inventories: • gaseous/aerosols and VOCs speciation • spatial: local, regional and global • More links between communities: national/international and • international projects (organize an international workshop?) • Natural emissions • from static inventories to interactive parameterizations/models to take into account impact of meteorology, climate change and land-use change. Database of ancillary data under development within • GEIA and ACCENT (more participants welcome). • Verification of emissions • intercomparisons of inventories and input data (emission factors, activity data, fire counts/area burned, etc.) • Inverse modeling : is currently limited to a few species (CO, NO2) at the global scale. Has started to be used for local/regional • emissions. Methods still under development, an intercomparison • could be organized.