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Air Quality and Energy: Problem or Opportunity?

Air Quality and Energy: Problem or Opportunity?. NEDRI July 16, 2002. Ken Colburn Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management kcolburn@nescaum.org. Simultaneous Economic Growth and Environmental Improvement .

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Air Quality and Energy: Problem or Opportunity?

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  1. Air Quality and Energy:Problem or Opportunity? NEDRI July 16, 2002 Ken Colburn Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management kcolburn@nescaum.org

  2. Simultaneous Economic Growth and Environmental Improvement Sources: 1970 - 1999 emissions data is from the National Air Pollutant Emissions Trend Report, (EPA, March 2000). Projections for SO2 and NOx are derived from the Integrated Planning Model (IPM). GDP data through 2000 is from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP projections follow EIA’s assumptions in AEO 2001 of 3% growth per year.

  3. Starting Point • Public Officials’ Job: Quality of Life • QOL = • Healthy Bodies, • Healthy Economy, and • Healthy Ecosystems • Increasingly, the interests of the environment and economic well-being are aligned… • So, economic and environmental regulators need to “align” better as well.

  4. Acid Deposition Levels in the United States Source: US EPA

  5. Atmospheric Deposition Estimates for Total Nitrogen, 1996 Source: US EPA

  6. Impact of Ozone on White Pine Health as Measured by Red Edge Inflection Point (REIP) NH Forest Products Industry = $1.6 billion direct economic impact annually… Source: UNH Forest Watch

  7. Anthropogenic Mercury Deposition Rates in the United States NH Fishing Industry = $300 million annual economic impact… Source: USEPA, Mercury Study Report to Congress, December 1997.

  8. Visibility Impairment in New Hampshire’s White Mountains: Mt. Jefferson photographed from AMC’s Camp Dodge at near natural conditions (6 deciviews) and at 90+ percentile haze (28 deciviews) Source: Appalachian Mountain Club Tourism is NH’s 2nd largest industry, with $3.5 billion direct economic impact annually…

  9. Temperature Change in New England 1985-1999 (Source: NERA, 2001)

  10. Changes in Dominant Forest Types Under Two Climate Scenarios Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program

  11. NEG-ECP Climate Commitment: Why Should States Start? Our Actions Count! • 1997 GHG Emissions: • NESCAUM States > Canada, Korea, Italy, Mexico, Australia, Brazil, France, Spain • New York > Taiwan, Venezuela • New England > Netherlands, Argentina • New Jersey > Egypt, Belgium, Algeria • Massachusetts> Greece, Austria, Denmark, Kuwait, Norway, Sweden, Israel, Portugal • Connecticut> Switzerland, Ireland, New Zealand, Peru • Maine> Croatia, Estonia, Tunisia • New Hampshire > Lithuania, Jordan, Ivory Coast • Rhode Island > Bolivia, Jamaica, Panama, Kenya • Vermont> Paraguay, Tanzania, Iceland, Cyprus

  12. Air pollution and climate change problems largely share a common root: Energy… … But can we address Energy without injuring the Economy?

  13. Energy Reliability • Demand-side investments (e.g., energy efficiency) are less expensive and more reliable than fixing weak links in the supply side (Generation, T&D): • EE enhances reliability of each link vs. having the “Next Weak Link” emerge • EE load reductions follow load profile well, so they diminish peaks • Slightly lower peaks produce substantial savings and avoid costly, little-used, supply-side upgrades • EE reduces environmental impact (e.g., fuel use, emissions, need to site new plants and T&D lines, and future environmental risk) (Source: Efficient Reliability, Cowart/RAP, 2001)

  14. Energy and National Security • Energy Security is best served by: • Fewer vulnerable targets like centralized fossil plants, nukes, dams, refineries, pipelines, and transmission facilities • More distributed generation (DG) • Less imported oil • More energy efficiency, energy conservation and Demand-Side Management (DSM) • National Security better served by: • Above items • Greater multi-lateralism on all fronts

  15. Old Paradigm: New Paradigm: Economy Economy Energy Environment Environment Energy An Economic Sea Change is Underway

  16. Evidence of an Economic Sea Change • ACEEE:Energy/GDP fell 42% from 1970-1999 • Global Business Competitiveness: • Power Quality & Reliability is more and more important • Bank of Omaha example (chose fuel cells) • Companies Need to Reduce Vulnerability to Price Shocks, Supply Disruptions, etc. • Basis of Financial Performance and International Competitiveness is Changing (“Triple Bottom Line”) • Economic Opportunity: “Who will own the patents?” • Dollar cost savings that Energy Efficiency provides • New England: High Electric Rates, but: • Low Poverty Rate, Unemployment Rate, etc. • High Growth in Jobs, Businesses, Per Capita Income

  17. “Place” Matters More in the New Economy In an economy where physical assets are not as important as they used to be, where intellectual assets dominate, where business can be conducted from anywhere to anywhere, it would seem that place should not matter; in fact, it matters more. … Places – through the quality of life they offer – matter because entrepreneurs and highly skilled and sought-after workers want to live in areas with educational, cultural, natural and civic amenities.1[emphasis added] 1 NetworkNH (a consortium of high tech companies), NH in the 21st Century, Competing in the New Economy, December 1, 2000, p. 16. See http://www.network.com

  18. Sustainability Energy Efficiency Path (More reliable, more secure, cleaner, more exportable) Higher Competitive Advantage Lost to Delay ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY Energy Intensity Path (Less reliable, less secure, less clean, less exportable) Lower Now Later TIME Old or New Energy Path?

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