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FCM PI Impact Assessment

FCM PI Impact Assessment. Additional Results. Analysis Group October 23, 2013. Overview. FCM PI vs. FCM Status Quo (and alternatives) March 1 Meeting Overview of impact analysis and role of Analysis Group Potential additional scope items April 10 Meeting

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FCM PI Impact Assessment

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  1. FCM PI Impact Assessment Additional Results Analysis Group October 23, 2013

  2. Overview • FCM PI vs. FCM Status Quo (and alternatives) • March 1 Meeting • Overview of impact analysis and role of Analysis Group • Potential additional scope items • April 10 Meeting • Proposed analytic approach • Key elements of scenarios • Expected sources of data and assumptions • June 4 Meeting • Model construct and status • Scenarios and assumptions, data sources, examples of outputs • Feedback on inputs • July 10 Meeting • Core results • Generator options for mitigating gas shortages • Incorporating PI Risk Factors into FCA Bids

  3. August 8 2013 Additional information/observations in response to July discussion Results of NRG proposal impacts September 11 Meeting Additional scenarios (Near-term Equilibrium with gas, Strict MOPR) Stakeholder questions Today Additional scenario results (Alternate PPRs of $2,000 and $3,500) Overview

  4. Summary of Equilibrium Scenarios at Alternate PPR Market and System Outcomes under Equilibrium Scenarios PPR equal to $2,000 and $3,500

  5. Resource Mix Impact: PPR=$2,000, Near-Term Equilibrium

  6. FCM PI Under PPR=$2,000, Near-Term Equilibrium Resource Mix Impact: Gas Dependency

  7. Resource Mix Impact: PPR=$2,000, Near-Term Equilibrium with Gas Shortages

  8. FCM PI Under PPR=$2,000, Near-Term Equilibrium with Gas Shortages Resource Mix Impact: Gas Dependency

  9. Resource Mix Impact: PPR=$2,000, Near-Term Equilibrium with High Gas Shortages

  10. FCM PI Under PPR=$2,000, Near-Term Equilibrium with High Gas Shortages Resource Mix Impact: Gas Dependency

  11. Resource Mix Impact: PPR=$3,500, Near-Term Equilibrium

  12. FCM PI Under PPR=$3,500, Near-Term Equilibrium Resource Mix Impact: Gas Dependency

  13. Resource Mix Impact: PPR=$3,500, Near-Term Equilibrium with Gas Shortages

  14. FCM PI Under PPR=$3,500, Near-Term Equilibrium with Gas Shortages Resource Mix Impact: Gas Dependency

  15. Resource Mix Impact: PPR=$3,500, Near-Term Equilibrium with High Gas Shortages

  16. FCM PI Under PPR=$3,500, Near-Term Equilibrium with High Gas Shortages Resource Mix Impact: Gas Dependency

  17. Paul J. HibbardAnalysis Group111 Huntington Avenue, 10th Floor Boston, MA 20199phibbard@analysisgroup.com617-425-8171Todd Schatzki, Ph.d.Analysis Group111 Huntington Avenue, 10th Floor Boston, MA 20199tschatzki@analysisgroup.com617-425-8250

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