Non-State Actors In Sub-Saharan Africa 2007-2012 Outlook

1. Mercyhurst Intelligence Estimate Non-State Actors In Sub-Saharan Africa 2007-2012 Outlook Team Non-State Actors: Mark Blair Daniel McNulty Brittany Monteparte Andreea Neagu Adrienne Sluga 12 November 2007

2. Agenda • Requirements • Non-State Actor Key Findings • Methodological Key Findings • Guided Tour Of The Wiki

3. Requirement • What role will non-state actors (NSAs) play and what impact will NSAs have in Sub-Saharan Africa over the next five years? • What is the likely importance of NSAs vs. State Actors, Supra-State Actors and other relevant categories of actors in Sub-Saharan Africa? • What are the roles of these actors in key countries, such as Niger? • Are there geographic, cultural, economic or other patterns of activity along which the roles of these actors are either very different or strikingly similar? • What analytical processes and methodologies were applied to the questions above and which proved to be effective or ineffective?

4. What Role Will Non-State Actors (NSAs) Play And What Impact Will NSAs Have In Sub-Saharan Africa Over The Next Five Years?

5. Key Findings • NSAs, On Average, Likely Play A Limited Role In Sub-Saharan Africa • NSA Roles Unlikely To Change • Even Split Between Current Government Sanctioned And Extra-Government Role Potentials Government Sanctioned Role Potentials: (e.g. Unions, Lobbyists, Privatization) Extra-Government Role Potentials: (e.g. Violence, Bribery, etc.)

6. Key Findings • Government Sanctioned Roles Likely To Moderately Increase Over The Next Five Years • Extra-Government Roles Likely To See No Increase Within The Next Five Years

7. What Is The Likely Importance Of NSAs Versus State Actors And Supra-State Actors In Sub-Saharan Africa?

8. NSA Versus State Actors • State Actors Likely To Have More Influence In Sub-Saharan Africa • On Average, Government Control Likely To Stay The Same Within The Next Five Years

9. NSA Versus Supra-State Actors • Two Supra-State Organizations Likely Have Significant Influence In Sub-Saharan Africa • European Union • United Nations • It Is Unlikely That They Will Impact The Role Of NSAs Now And In The Next Five Years

10. What Are The Roles Of Non-State Actors (NSAs) In Key Countries, Such As Niger?

11. Key Countries • Angola, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Niger, Nigeria, And South Africa Likely Key Countries To US • Strategic Locations • Military Importance • Vast Natural Resources • Counterterrorism Initiatives • NSAs Likely Play Little To No Role In Key Countries Currently And Over The Next Five Years

12. Are There Geographic, Cultural, Economic Or Other Patterns Of Activity Along Which The Roles Of These Actors Are Either Very Different Or Strikingly Similar?

13. 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 MALI 2-GS Overall NSA Role Scores Government Sanctioned Role Potentials Extra-Government Role Potentials No Role Multiple Significant Roles Multiple Significant Roles CAPE VERDE 2-GS ERITREA 2-EG MAURITANIA 1-EG NIGER 2-EG CHAD 4-EG DJIBOUTI 1-EG SUDAN 2-EG BURKINA FASO 2-EG SENEGAL 2-GS NIGERIA 1-EG THE GAMBIA 1-GS ETHIOPIA 1-GS GHANA 2-GS COTE D’IVOIRE 2-EG CENTRAL AFRICAN REP. 4-EG CAMEROON 1-EG GUINEA-BISSAU 2-EG BENIN 2-GS TOGO 2-EG GUINEA 3-EG LIBERIA 3-EG SOMALIA 5-EG UGANDA 2-GS KENYA 2-GS/EG GABON 2-GS SIERRA LEONE 2-EG DROC 3-EG EQUATORIAL GUINEA 2-EG RWANDA 1-GS/EG BURUNDI 2-EG TANZANIA 2-GS MALAWI 1-GS SAO TOME & PRINCIPE 1-GS SEYECHELLES 2-GS ANGOLA 1-EG REP. OF CONGO 3-EG COMOROS 1-GS ZAMBIA 1-GS MAURITIUS 4-GS ZIMBABWE 2-EG NAMIBIA 3-GS BOTSWANA 4-GS MADAGASCAR 2-GS MOZAMBIQUE 1-GS S. AFRICA 4-GS SWAZILAND 1-GS LESOTHO 2-GS

14. Southern And Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa: Region Likely Influenced By Government Sanctioned NSAs Government Sanctioned NSAs Likely To Increase Influence Over Next Five Years 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Overall NSA Role Scores Government Sanctioned Role Potentials Extra-Government Role Potentials No Role Multiple Significant Roles Multiple Significant Roles Patterns Of Activity: Geographic Southern And Eastern Region

15. Central Sub-Saharan Africa: Region Likely Influenced By Extra-Government NSAs NSA Role Unlikely To Change Over Next Five Years 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Overall NSA Role Scores Government Sanctioned Role Potentials Extra-Government Role Potentials No Role Multiple Significant Roles Multiple Significant Roles Patterns Of Activity: Geographic Central Region

16. Western Sub-Saharan Africa NSAs Likely Play A Wide Variety Of Roles No Clear Trends 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Overall NSA Role Scores Government Sanctioned Role Potentials Extra-Government Role Potentials No Role Multiple Significant Roles Multiple Significant Roles Patterns Of Activity: Geographic Western Region

17. Patterns Of Activity: NSA Correlations • It Is Likely That Certain Types Of NSAs Support Each Other • Strong Correlation Between NGOs And Businesses (.86) • Terrorist Groups More Represented In Countries With More State Control

18. Methodology

19. Key Findings • It Is Likely That Multiple Methods Of Analysis Create High Confidence And Prove Highly Efficient • The Fundamental Method – Role Potential Spectrum • Government Sanctioned And Extra-Government Role Potentials • Represents Likely Role Potentials of Lawful And Unlawful NSAs

20. NSA Role Potential Spectrum

21. Analysis Of Competing Hypothesis (ACH) • Provided Confidence In A Specific Country’s Role Potential Score • Looked At Other Factors Score Might Not Consider

22. Geospatial Analysis • Confirmed Geographic Patterns In Four Separate Indices With Regards To NGOS, Businesses, And Terrorist Groups NGOs In Sub-Saharan Africa

23. Visualization • It Is Likely That Visualization Of The Data Allows For Patterns To Be Easily Visible

24. Wiki Information • Login Wikispaces: • www.wikispaces.com • Username: billreynolds • Password: reynolds • E-mail: • teamnonstateactors@gmail.com • Password: burkinafaso11

25. Thank You • Contact Information • Mark Blair: markcblair@gmail.com • Dan McNulty: dmcnul91@gmail.com • Brittany Monteparte: bmonte80@mercyhurst.edu • Andreea Neagu: aneagu16@mercyhurst.edu • Adrienne Sluga: asluga69@mercyhurst.edu