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YANAGISAWA Akira The Energy Data and Modelling Center The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

The 2nd Meeting of the Working Group for Analysis of Energy Saving Potential in East Asia Region 11-12 September 2007 Energy Demand Projection Result. YANAGISAWA Akira The Energy Data and Modelling Center The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan. Country and Code. Total Primary Energy Supply.

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YANAGISAWA Akira The Energy Data and Modelling Center The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

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  1. The 2nd Meeting of the Working Group for Analysis of Energy Saving Potential in East Asia Region11-12 September 2007Energy Demand Projection Result YANAGISAWA Akira The Energy Data and Modelling Center The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

  2. Country and Code

  3. Total Primary Energy Supply

  4. Primary Energy Supply by Energies

  5. Total Primary Energy Supply by Countries

  6. Energy Intensity (TPES/GDP)

  7. Energy Intensity Improvement (APS against BAU)

  8. Total Final Energy Consumption Australia is not included.

  9. Total Final Energy Consumption by Sectors Australia is not included.

  10. Total Final Energy Consumption by Countries

  11. Power Generation

  12. CO2 Emission

  13. TPES Decomposition Analysis TPES = POP * (GDP/POP) * (TPES/GDP) DTPES DPOP * (GDP/POP) * (TPES/GDP) + POP * D(GDP/POP) * (TPES/GDP) + POP * (GDP/POP) * D(TPES/GDP) = Population Factor + GDP per Capita Factor + Energy Intensity Factor

  14. TPES Decomposition Analysis

  15. CO2 Decomposition Analysis CO2 = POP * (GDP/POP) * (TPES/GDP) * (CO2/TPES) DCO2DPOP * (GDP/POP) * (TPES/GDP) * (CO2/TPES) + POP * D(GDP/POP) * (TPES/GDP) * (CO2/TPES) + POP * (GDP/POP) * D(TPES/GDP) * (CO2/TPES) + POP * (GDP/POP) * (TPES/GDP) * D(CO2/TPES) = Population Factor + GDP per Capita Factor + Energy Intensity Factor + Carbon Intensity Factor

  16. CO2 Decomposition Analysis

  17. Implication (1) • In the APS, energy conservation of 1,570 Mtoe, or 23% will be expected in the region. • This amount will be 9% of world energy consumption in 2030. • China, India, Indonesia, Korea and Japan have much potential of energy conservation. • Faster improvement of intensity will be expected in the Non-OECD countries than the OECD countries. • Non-OECD Countries: -3.6%/year in the APS. • OECD Countries: -1.5%/year in the APS.

  18. Implication (2) • In the APS, oil consumption will be reduced by 540 Mtoe from the BAU. • Contribution of energy conservation in transportation is 310 Mtoe, more than half. • The oil cost will be saved by about $260 billion USD a year. • In the APS, electricity generation will be reduced by 2,700 TWh, or 19% from the BAU. • Thermal efficiency will be improved from 39% in the BAU to 46% in the APS. • In term of input, 820 Mtoe of fossil fuel will be conserved.

  19. Implication (3) • In the APS, CO2 emission will be reduced by 1,490 Mt-C, or 27% from the BAU. • This amount will be 12% of world CO2 emission in 2030. • Energy conservation in the region will lead reduction of CO2 emission with high efficiency. • The energy conservation in the region, which will be equal to 9% of world energy consumption, will bring CO2 reduction of 12% of the global emission.

  20. Questions and Requests (1) • General • Should power generation by non fossil fuel be assumed as amount, or as shares of total power generation? • Request for thermal efficiency data in the APS. • Request for check of energy conservation balance among industry, transportation and other sector.

  21. Questions and Requests (2) • Australia • Request for final energy consumption data, etc. • Data submission has been agreed already. • China • Request for assumptions. • Simulation is referring “China Medium and Long Term Energy Conservation Plan” this time. • The target “20% reduction from 2006 to 2010 at 2.2 percent per annum and at 3% per annum to 2020.” was ignored because of inconsistency. • Request for power generation mixture data.

  22. Questions and Requests (3) • India • Request for check of GDP growth rate. • Ex. Total growth is 8% from 2020 to 2030. Industry, services and agriculture are 7.51%, 7.75% and 4.36% respectively. • Indonesia • Request for check of GDP growth rate. • Same situation with India. • Does “Vehicle stock” refer “Passenger car”, “Bus” and “Truck”? Does it include something others? • Request for power generation mixture and electricity trade (from Malaysia?) data in 2030.

  23. Questions and Requests (4) • Korea • Does “Vehicle stock” refer only “Passenger car”? • Malaysia • Request for submission of assumption. • Philippines • Request for data after 2014. • Request for power generation mixture data. • Singapore • Request for submission of assumption.

  24. Questions and Requests (5) • Thailand • Request for data after 2020. • Is the GDP base year 1988?

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