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Surveying the Digital Future: The Impact of the Internet Year Five

This study examines the trends in internet use and the impact of broadband, media consumption, and information reliability. It also explores the future of internet usage.

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Surveying the Digital Future: The Impact of the Internet Year Five

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  1. Surveying the Digital Future:The Impact of the Internet Year Five: Trends in Internet Use Jeffrey Cole, Ph.D. Director, The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg Cross-Platform Media Teams: Strategic Thinking for a Multi-Platform World June 22, 2005 Reston, VA

  2. Lost Research Opportunity • A Longitudinal Study of Television, beginning in 1948 could have found • Where the time for television came from • How it affected … consumer behavior, connection to the civic process, desire to travel, career goals and much else

  3. We are undertaking the study of the Internet that should have been conducted on television in the late 1940s

  4. United States Singapore Italy Sweden Japan Taiwan Great Britain India Iran Australia Bolivia Hong Kong Mainland China* Macao South Korea Germany Hungary Spain Chile Argentina Brazil Philipines Portugual Africa about to join Countries and Regions in Current Comparisons

  5. Trend #1 • Broadband Changes Everything

  6. Broadband Changes Everything • Bigger gap between dial-up and broadband than between non-user and dial-up • Dial-up is disruptive — broadband integrative • Broadband determines how often people log on, how long they stay on, what they do online and where they log on from • Broadband predicts purchasing behavior and overall relationship to Internet

  7. Broadband vs. Dial-up • Broadband users on 17.3 hours a week vs. 10.6 for dialup • Dial-up users on 2-4 times a day, broadband 16-30+ • Broadband users do more of everything except using medical information and distance learning

  8. Trend #2 • Media use (especially television) has shown profound change

  9. Offline Media Use Continues to Change • Television displacement changing • Newspaper and magazine use drops for second year • Book use declining slightly for first time • Radio and home film watching remains stable • Age makes enormous difference

  10. Average Hours per Week Spent Watching Television:Users vs. Non-Users Users Non-users 30 26.3 24.3 25 22.9 20.9 20.4 20.2 20 18.7 18.3 18.1 17.5 23.0 16.2 15.9 15.6 15.5 14.5 Number of Hours 14.1 15 13.0 12.9 11.8 15.5 10.2 10 5 0 Britain Chile (Santiago) Germany Hungary Japan Korea Macao Singapore Sweden Taiwan USA HTV x Usenet – 7 extra questions (10-22-03)

  11. During a typical week, about how many hours of your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the following activities OFFLINE? (Use) Q690 (K-4)

  12. During a typical week, about how many hours of your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the following activities OFFLINE? (Age) Q690 (K-5)

  13. Online Media making a Real Impact • Online newspaper readership rising • Magazine and radio use climbing • Online books, telephone and television use still very low • Online game use very high, but drops slightly in 4th year • For young, some online media use VERY high

  14. During a typical week, about how many minutes of your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the following activities online?(Year to Year) Q700 (K-2)

  15. During a typical week, about how many minutes of your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the following activities online?(Age) Q700 (K-4)

  16. Trend #3 • Internet is the most important source of information (for Internet users)

  17. Internet #1 Information Source • First place people go to for information • Broadband greatly accelerates this process • Want access to Internet everywhere • Growth is in information, not entertainment

  18. How important is the Internet as a source of information? (Connection) Q530a (P-1)

  19. Trend #4 • Reliability and credibility of media varies greatly based on source and in different countries

  20. Reliability and Credibility of Media • Continuing to drop—a healthy trend • Credibility high in much of the world • Trust in information varies widely depending on familiarity with the source

  21. How much of the information on the World Wide Web overall do you think is reliable and accurate? (Year to Year) (Users) Q160 (M-1)

  22. Information on the Internet: Is it Reliable and Accurate? (Users Age 18 and above) Stage 5 – RELIA x Usenet (10-14-03)

  23. How much of the information on the World Wide Web sites that you visit regularly do you think is reliable and accurate? Q170 (M-2)

  24. How reliable and accurate are: News Pages posted by Established Media Q173-1 (M-1)

  25. How reliable and accurate are:Government Websites Q173-3 (M-1)

  26. How reliable and accurate are: Information Pages posted by Individuals Q173-2 (M-1)

  27. The Internet 2005-2010 • The advantages of experience will disappear • Much Internet time will move to “down time” and number of hours on-line will shrink and mean less and less • Internet users will reach television levels, but in 2030 not 2010 (most of those who want to be on-line are)

  28. The Internet 2005-2010 (continued) • Push back from most advanced users (E-nuff already) • Surprising amount Internet use will move to mobile

  29. CONTACT INFORMATION • Web: http:/digitalcenter.org • E-mail: cole@digitalcenter.org • Phone: (213) 437-4433

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