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Surveying the Digital Future: The Impact of the Internet

Surveying the Digital Future: The Impact of the Internet. Year Four: Ten Years (1994-2004)/ Ten Trends Jeffrey Cole, Ph.D. Director, The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg Microsoft August 27, 2004 Redmond, WA. Ten Years (1994-2004)/Ten Trends.

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Surveying the Digital Future: The Impact of the Internet

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  1. Surveying the Digital Future:The Impact of the Internet Year Four: Ten Years (1994-2004)/ Ten Trends Jeffrey Cole, Ph.D. Director, The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg Microsoft August 27, 2004 Redmond, WA

  2. Ten Years (1994-2004)/Ten Trends • 1994 the beginning of the popular Internet (1969 beginning of ARPANET) • AOL offered Internet access as a additional feature of walled-garden service • Netscape browser first appeared

  3. Lost Research Opportunity • A Longitudinal Study of Television, beginning in 1948 could have found • Where the time for television came from • How it affected … consumer behavior, connection to the civic process, desire to travel, career goals and much else

  4. We are undertaking the study of the Internet that should have been conducted on television in the late 1940s

  5. United States Singapore Italy Sweden Japan Taiwan Great Britain India Iran Australia Bolivia Hong Kong Mainland China* Macao South Korea Germany Hungary Spain Chile Argentina Brazil Philipines Portugual Africa about to join Countries and Regions in Current Comparisons

  6. Trend #1 • The Digital Divide is closing (but not yet closed)

  7. Internet Use Continues to Grow • Household access over 60% • Hours per week at 12.5 • Growth in hours/years of experience • Gap between new and experienced users narrowing • Gender and income gap narrowing

  8. Hours online from any location (Year to Year) Weihuaextra (W-1)

  9. Number of hours online at any location by years of experience Weihuaextra (W-2)

  10. Percent of Males and Females Who Use the Internet Stage 4 – Usenet x Gender (10-14-03)

  11. How many hours per week do you use the Internet for…? Q710 (B-1)

  12. Trend #2 • Broadband Changes Everything

  13. How do you connect to the Internet? (Year to Year) Q360 (P-1)

  14. Broadband Changes Everything • Bigger gap between dial-up and broadband than between non-user and dial-up • Dial-up is disruptive — broadband integrative • Broadband determines how often people log on, how long they stay on, what they do online and where they log on from • Broadband predicts purchasing behavior and overall relationship to Internet

  15. Broadband vs. Dial-up • Broadband users on 17.3 hours a week vs. 10.6 for dialup • Dial-up users on 2-4 times a day, broadband 16-30+ • Broadband users do more of everything except using medical information and distance learning

  16. The Future of Broadband • Most users expect to be on broadband • Broadband users leading effort in WiFi and networks • Broadband users spend more on all electronics and also on on-line buying • Early broadband users are innovators across many areas

  17. Trend #3 • Media use (especially television) has shown profound change

  18. Offline Media Use Continues to Change • Television dispacement changing • Newspaper and magazine use drops for second year • Book use declining slightly for first time • Radio and home film watching remains stable • Age makes enormous difference

  19. Average Hours per Week Spent Watching Television:Users vs. Non-Users Users Non-users 30 26.3 24.3 25 22.9 20.9 20.4 20.2 20 18.7 18.3 18.1 17.5 23.0 16.2 15.9 15.6 15.5 14.5 Number of Hours 14.1 15 13.0 12.9 11.8 15.5 10.2 10 5 0 Britain Chile (Santiago) Germany Hungary Japan Korea Macao Singapore Sweden Taiwan USA HTV x Usenet – 7 extra questions (10-22-03)

  20. During a typical week, about how many hours of your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the following activities OFFLINE? (Use) Q690 (K-4)

  21. During a typical week, about how many hours of your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the following activities OFFLINE? (Age) Q690 (K-5)

  22. Online Media making a Real Impact • Online newspaper readership rising • Magazine and radio use climbing • Online books, telephone and television use still very low • Online game use very high, but drops slightly in 4th year • For young, some online media use VERY high

  23. During a typical week, about how many minutes of your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the following activities online?(Year to Year) Q700 (K-2)

  24. During a typical week, about how many minutes of your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the following activities online?(Age) Q700 (K-4)

  25. Trend #4 • Internet is the most important source of information (for Internet users)

  26. Internet #1 Information Source • First place people go to for information • Broadband greatly accelerates this process • Want access to Internet everywhere • Growth is in information, not entertainment

  27. How important is the Internet as a source of information? (Connection) Q530a (P-1)

  28. Trend #5 • Reliability and credibility of media varies greatly based on source and in different countries

  29. Reliability and Credibility of Media • Continuing to drop—a healthy trend • Credibility high in much of the world • Trust in information varies widely depending on familiarity with the source

  30. How much of the information on the World Wide Web overall do you think is reliable and accurate? (Year to Year) (Users) Q160 (M-1)

  31. Information on the Internet: Is it Reliable and Accurate? (Users Age 18 and above) Stage 5 – RELIA x Usenet (10-14-03)

  32. How much of the information on the World Wide Web sites that you visit regularly do you think is reliable and accurate? Q170 (M-2)

  33. How reliable and accurate are: News Pages posted by Established Media Q173-1 (M-1)

  34. How reliable and accurate are:Government Websites Q173-3 (M-1)

  35. How reliable and accurate are: Information Pages posted by Individuals Q173-2 (M-1)

  36. Trend #6 • Online buying increasing substantially and piracy starting to decline

  37. In an average year, how many times do you purchase products or services over the Internet? (Adult purchasers) Q780 (W-1)

  38. Downloading “Free” Content • 41% of new users use P2P such as Kazaa • 62% of experienced users use P2P • 14% of Internet users have at least 100 free downloaded pieces of content

  39. Attitudes Toward Dowloading • 94% of users believe taking a CD from a record store is wrong in all instances • 36% believe that “taking” the same content from the Internet is wrong in all instances • Little change from 2000 through early 2003

  40. Change in 2003-4 • For the first time there seems to be a significant crack in the unwillingness to pay for “any” digital content. The arguments that artists deserve fair pay or the costs of a record company never carried any weight and still do not. What seems to have changes is the available of “fair” services (i-tunes) and subpoenas.

  41. Differences between Music and Movies • Among those under 30, significant belief that CDs are “over-priced” and that unfair to buy entire CD for “one” song. • Same group feels DVDs (movies) are fairly priced and you “get more than you pay for” with extras.

  42. Trend #7 • Fears about privacy and security are still extremely high, but no longer are a barrier to buying

  43. Privacy and Security Fears • Overall still at very high levels • Shift from extremely concerned to somewhat concerned • Users do not have to see their fears disappear, buying in spite of fear • Internet users buying earlier, less lag time

  44. How concerned would you be about the security of your credit card information when or if you ever bought something online?(Experience) Q830 (W-3)

  45. How concerned would you be about the security of your credit card information when or if you ever bought something online? (Purchase Frequency) Q830 (W-6)

  46. Trend #8 • You do not become a “Geek” (or stay one) when you go online

  47. Online world is not filled with Geeks and Nerds • You do not put your social life at risk when you go online • Users get 1 hour less sleep per week and exercise a bit more • Users spend same amount of time with family and more time with friends • Users less alienated, lonely and more confident

  48. Trend #9 • Parents losing some of their enthusiasm for the Internet and more likely to equate it with television

  49. Parents losing some of their enthusiasm • Believe their children are at great risk (but also that it is important to be online) • More likely to feel children spend too much time online and to punish by denying Internet • Less likely to believe that Internet will help their children’s grades in school

  50. Does anyone under 18 in your household get punished by being denied access to…? Q1070 (W-3)

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