Global Climate Change

1. Global Climate Change

2. Overview • Introduction to Climate Change • Causes of Global Climate Change • Effects of Climate Change • Melting Ice and Rising Sea Level • Changes in Precipitation Patterns • Effects on Organisms • Effects on Human Health • Effects on Agriculture • Dealing with Global Climate Change

3. To Start Off • Where does all the data for Climate Change come from? • IPCC – Inter-Governmental Panel for Climate Change (ALL scientists from All countries who are studying CC)

4. Myth versus Fact • MYTH: This IS NOT a Democrat/Republican debate • FACT: This problem is REAL and IS already affecting Humans and ALL LIVING THINGS on this planet that have the RIGHT to exist without these Human induced consequences! • FACT: We can curtail the long-term consequences which WILL stem from our current INACTION

5. Introduction to Climate Change-Mean Annual Global Temperature 1960-2005

6. Climate Change Terminology • Greenhouse Gas • Gas that absorbs infrared radiation • Ex: Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons and tropospheric ozone • Positive Feedback • Change in some condition triggers a response that intensifies the changed condition • Infrared Radiation • Radiation that has a wavelength that is longer than that of visible light, but shorter than that of radio waves • Greenhouse Effect • Increase of heat in a system where energy enters (often as light), is absorbed as heat, and released sometime later

7. Introduction to Climate Change • Evidence for Climate Change • 11 of the 12 years between 1995 and 2006 were among the twelve warmest years since the mid-1800s • Phenological spring in N. hemisphere now comes 6 days earlier • Warming is not due to natural causes • Human produced greenhouse gases are most plausible explanation

8. WAKE UP AND FREAK OUT LOOK AND LISTEN!!!

9. Causes of Climate Change • Greenhouse gas concentrations increasing

10. Causes of Climate Change • Increased concentration of CO2 (right) • Burning fossil fuels in cars, industry and homes • Deforestation • Burning of forests

11. Global instrumentaltemperature record • 5 Warmest years so far: • 2005 • 1998 (El Niño year) • 2002 • 2003 • 2004 Departures in temperature (°C) from the 1961-1990 average

12. Present CO2 concentration (381 ppmv) CO2 concentration after 50 years of unrestricted fossil fuel burning (600 ppmv) 300 270 240 CO2 (ppmv) 210 180 Temp. Proxy 800 600 400 200 0 Thousands of Years Before Present Petit et al., 1999; Siegenthaler et al., 2005; EPICA Community members, 2004

13. IPCC SRES Emission Scenarios F. Joos, 1999 800 A1 A2 B1 B2 600 Carbon Dioxide Concentration (ppmv) 400 200 1950 2000 2050 2100

14. Atmospheric Stabilization Emission Paths Stabilizing at 2xCO2 (green curve) is by no means “safe”, but achieving this much will be very difficult and more might not be possible.

15. 2xCO2 GFDL model simulations of Surface Air Warming (°F) Northern hemisphere mid-continent average warming is 15-25°F! ➙ This is a roasted world. 4xCO2

16. Signs that global warming is underway • Sea level rise • by thermal expansion AND ice melt • Sea ice melting (Arctic and Antarctic) • Glaciers melting worldwide • Arctic and Antarctic Peninsula heating up fastest • Melting on ice sheets is accelerating • More severe weather (droughts, floods, storms, heat waves, hard freezes, etc.) • Bottom line: • These changes do not fit the natural patterns unless we add the effects of increased GHGs

17. Greenhouse Effect

18. Greenhouse Gasses • Let sunlight in • short wavelengths • Earth heats up and radiates heat • longer wavelengths • GHGs • don’t let Earth’s heat out

19. Increased Greenhouse Gasses Earth’s “cooling” system is “clogged” • Net effect: • Earth warms to a temperature where its radiation is shorter wave- lengths and can escape

20. Climate Models • Climate affected by: • winds, clouds, ocean currents, and albedo • Used to explore past climate events • Advanced models can project future warming events • Models are only as good as the data and law used to program them • They have limitations

21. Climate Models

22. Effects of Global Climate Change- Melting Ice and Rising Sea Levels • Sea level rise caused in 2 ways • Thermal Expansion • Water expands as it warms • Melting of land ice • Retreat of glacier and thinning of ice at the poles • Melting has positive feedback • Increased melting decreases ice, which decreases albedo leading to further warming

23. Melting Ice and Rising Sea Levels 1957 1998

24. McCarty Glacier, Alaska

25. Muir and Riggs Glaciers

26. Case-In-Point Impacts in Fragile Areas • Eskimo Inuit live traditional life dictated by freezing climate • Climate change is altering their existence • Wildlife are smaller or displaced • Reduced snow cover and shorter river ice seasons • Thawing of permafrost (right)

27. Effects of Global Climate Change- Changing Precipitation Patterns • Some areas will get more water, some areas will have greater droughts • Ex: Hurricanes will likely get stronger

28. Effects of Global Climate Change- Effects on Organisms • Zooplankton in parts of California Current have decreased by 80% since 1951 • Effecting entire food chain • Decline in krill around Antarctica • Caused decrease in penguin populations • Species have shifted their geographic range • Migrating birds are returning to summer homes earlier • Food is not available at this time

29. Effects on Organisms - Coral Reefs • Coral reefs can be bleached (right) due to increase in water temperature • Affects coral symbiotes and makes them more susceptible to diseases to which they would otherwise be immune

30. Effects of Global Climate Change • Ocean as CO2 sink - excess CO2 is starting to harm ocean life

35. This is very “inconvenient”

36. Effect on Organisms - VegetationBeech Tree Range

37. Effects on Human Health • Increased number of heat-related illnesses and deaths

38. Effects on Agriculture • Difficult to anticipate • Productivity will increase in some areas and decrease in others • Rise in sea level will inundate flood plains and river valleys (lush farmland) • Effect on pests is unknown • Warmer temperatures will decrease soil moisture- requiring more irrigation • Location (i.e. elevation and altitude) where certain crops can be grown may have to change

39. International Implicationsof Climate Change • Developed vs. Developing countries • Differing self-interests • Differing ability to meet the challenges of climate change

40. Dealing with Global Climate Change • To avoid the worst of climate change, CO2 levels must be stabilized at 550ppm • 50% higher than current levels • Two ways to attempt to manage climate change • Mitigation • Focuses on limiting greenhouse gas emissions to moderate global climate change • Adaptation • Focuses on learning to live with to the environmental changes and societal consequences brought about by global climate change

41. Dealing with Global Climate Change- Relationship Between Mitigation and Adaptation

42. Dealing with Global Climate Change- Mitigation • Locate/invent alternative fuels to fossil fuels • Increase efficiency of cars and trucks • Sequestering carbon before it is emitted • Plant and Maintain trees to naturally sequester carbon

43. Dealing with Global Climate Change- Adaptation • Rising sea levels and coastal populations • Move inland • Construct dikes and levees • Adapt to shifting agricultural zones • NYC sewer line

44. International Efforts to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emission • Kyoto Protocol • Legally binding • Provides operational rules on reducing greenhouse gases • US has not signed it- it will be difficult to implement without US backing • Copenhagen